Mike Clay’s Playbook: Strategy, tips to help you win your league
Credit to Author: Mike Clay| Date: Sun, 28 Jul 2024 13:31:09 EST
A new fantasy football season is upon us, and if you tuned out after February’s Super Bowl, you certainly have a lot of catching up to do.
The 2024 NFL offseason brought a flurry of action that will bring massive changes to this season’s fantasy football landscape. That action includes wholesale changes to the Atlanta Falcons‘ offense, a wave of new, exciting quarterbacks led by No. 1 pick Caleb Williams, a bunch of big-name running backs finding new homes and, of course, the return of old friend Jim Harbaugh.
The Playbook takes a thorough position-by-position look at that landscape and offers advice and information that can help you make sound decisions not only on draft day, but in the weeks leading up to Week 1 and throughout the season. The focus will primarily be on average-sized, season-long leagues, but I didn’t forget those of you who, like me, are in more nuanced leagues, including dynasty, keeper, superflex and best ball.
If you’re a regular reader of my work, first of all, thank you! Second of all, this will seem quite different. Instead of going heavy on data, numbers and charts, this is a strategy piece for both beginners and advanced players that shows you how I apply all that I’ve learned during my many years as a fantasy player and during an offseason of research. Note that I originally published a version of this article in 2021, but it is a living document I make substantial updates to each year.
Bear with me, and I’ll cover as many bases as possible in a relatively short amount of time.
As you get ready for the fantasy season, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby and keep track of Mike Clay’s updated projections throughout the season.
Jump to: Early picks | State of the positions | Draft strategy | Post-draft planning | Trading | Navigating waivers | Adjusting to your league
Go with the flow, or zig when they zag? That’s the big question entering 2024 fantasy football drafts.
It has taken some time, but wide receiver has officially overtaken running back as the priority position.
That’s evidenced by ADP trends in recent seasons.
Five years ago (2020), 10 of the first 12 picks (and 14 of the top 20) were running backs. That trend has shifted in recent years, and 2024 ADP data shows the considerable change: Only four of the first 12 picks (and 10 of the first 36) are RBs.
Same as last year, you should expect more WRs than RBs to be off the board right out of the gate and throughout the first few rounds of your draft.
The question is, do you follow the new trend and avoid RBs early or try to gain an edge by stacking a pair of RB1s with your first two picks? It somewhat depends on where you’re drafting in the first round, but the best way to maximize your entire lineup is going to require flexibility and quick thinking.
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If you have one of the first three picks, the right answer, in my opinion, is to select one of the big three RBs: Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson. Because of how quickly the position dries up of reliable, elite options, this is the best way to gain an edge. From that point on, however, wide receivers rule the day. CeeDee Lamb is your top option at wide receiver, but not far behind him are other elite, high-floor WRs, including Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown.
Despite the increasing popularity of wide receivers, landing quality running backs is still a very important goal. Of course, how exactly you find those quality options remains an industry-wide debate.
Some will tell you to load up early and often, while others opine that some form of the Zero RB strategy is your ticket to a fantasy title. If you’re not familiar, Zero RB is a drafting philosophy that involves not selecting any running backs until at least the middle portion of your draft, instead loading up on wide receivers (and perhaps an elite tight end) in the first several rounds. Then, when top backs inevitably get injured, your opponents’ rosters get worse and you can use your stashed backs and waivers to fill your RB slots, giving you an edge on the field.
What do I think? I think that it depends on whom you’re drafting with and how your draft is progressing. That’s a bit of a cop-out, but it also follows suit with my general drafting strategy of never (OK, rarely) allowing biases, emotion or need stand in the way of maximizing value.
Here’s an example of zigging when they zag by leaning into an RB-heavy approach:
In the eighth annual MFL10 of Death best ball draft, held in May 2021, I knew I was drafting with some of the sharpest players in the industry and was fully aware that many of them are on the Zero RB train, which was sure to mean a heavier dose of wide receivers in the first few rounds. This allowed me to grab Alvin Kamara fifth overall, Nick Chubb 20th, D’Andre Swift 29th, Josh Jacobs 53rd and Leonard Fournette 125th. (The first four were picked within the first five rounds.) I picked all five backs later (some way later) than their average draft position (ADP) at the time, so while I was a step behind at receiver, I built myself a sizable edge at running back and had a weekly edge in the flex.
I rolled with a similar strategy the year prior (four RBs in the first seven rounds) and spent two of my first three picks on RBs in both 2022 (not to mention taking the discount on Josh Jacobs in the sixth round) and 2023. Did it work? Well, prepare yourself for the first of several not-so-humble brags in this piece: I won the league in both 2020 and 2022, and, despite almost no production from my injury-plagued receiver room in 2021 and almost zero from my quarterbacks last year, I finished in the top four both seasons. You won’t be shocked to learn that I spent four of my first six picks on running backs in the 2024 version of this league (Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White).
That’s an example of zigging when they zag, but if your league hasn’t quite caught on to the new trend and still hammers away at RBs early on, flipping to a WR-heavy approach can pay off.
As for choosing where to draft (if you get the choice), I’m generally a proponent of aiming for the earliest possible pick, and that applies in 2024. I can land an elite back with my first pick and still land another midrange RB1 or a pair of star WRs at the Round 2/3 turn. That list of players includes Kyren Williams, Deebo Samuel Sr., Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, Derrick Henry, Michael Pittman Jr. and Mike Evans.
I’ll get more into the weeds on draft strategy throughout this piece, but here’s the bottom line: In an ideal world (and considering the current ADP trend), I’m getting at least one star RB and one star WR with those first two picks (though two RBs is fine if the board calls for it) and then aggressively attacking a deep wide receiver position, while also waiting to pounce on a value at quarterback and tight end in the middle rounds.
Of course, you need to know your league to maximize your chance at victory. If your leaguemates are more aggressive at running back, pivoting to a WR-heavy strategy (especially if you don’t own a top-three pick) is extremely viable.
Now that you have a general idea of how to attack the first round or so of your draft, let’s check in on the state of each fantasy position.
Quarterback: Pick a tier, any tier
Whereas last year we had a big three of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes leading the fantasy QB rankings, the field is now closer than it has been in a while. Allen remains the headliner after pacing the position in fantasy points for the third time in four seasons, but he’s arguably not as strong of a commodity as in years past in a Buffalo Bills offense that will run more often and no longer has Stefon Diggs.
Couple that with Hurts’ inconsistent finish to 2023 and Mahomes’ big dip in fantasy output and suddenly the QB field has tightened up. Even if you consider those three as still the best of the bunch, Lamar Jackson isn’t far behind, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson are the hot midrange QB1 breakout candidates and veterans Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott very much have top-five upside.
Those eight quarterbacks comprise what I’d consider to be the first two to three tiers (depending on where you want to split them) of quarterbacks. But even if you miss out on them, the likes of Kyler Murray, Jordan Love and Brock Purdy make for solid fantasy starters.
Want to wait even longer before drafting your quarterback? You won’t feel too badly settling for a veteran such as Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert or Kirk Cousins, or taking a shot on a rookie such as Williams or Jayden Daniels.
It wasn’t long ago that a superstar quarterback like Allen would be a first-round pick in all fantasy leagues. The industry has wised up in that department, and casual drafters have caught on as well, with top quarterbacks still often on the board into the third and fourth round. That makes the top passers more palatable, but they’re still a premium pick. The good news is that you can feel comfortable passing on the top options and still come away with a solid starter with upside.
In summary: There are, at least, eight and perhaps as many as 12 quarterbacks with whom you can feel pretty comfortable as your QB1 this season, so while you should try to land one from that group, you don’t need to reach for a top option.
Running back: A new era
Mike Clay breaks down how managers should attack the first round of their fantasy football draft based on their selection slot.
As noted earlier, fantasy drafters are out on running backs. Wide receiver has become the new priority position and starting-caliber fantasy backs are falling further than ever. There are still a handful of elite options worth considering in the first round, but the position dries up quickly. Part of the reason for it is that many of the star fantasy backs of the past decade are nearing the end.
Consider: The average age of top-15-scoring fantasy RBs over the past five years is 24.8, with a high of 25.9 in 2022 and a low of 24.0 in 2019. Only six (8%) of the 75 RBs in the sample were 28 or older to begin the season and three of those were in 2023 (Henry, Raheem Mostert, Alvin Kamara).
Why is that notable? McCaffrey (28), Henry (30), Kamara (29), Joe Mixon (28), Aaron Jones (29), James Conner (29), Austin Ekeler (29), Ezekiel Elliott (29), Mostert (32), Gus Edwards (29) and Nick Chubb (28) are all being selected in the early-to-midportion of drafts, and each is entering his age-28 or older season.
The question is, can we still count on these veterans who have proved elite/reliable the past half-decade and remain positioned for big workloads, or should we fade them in anticipation of a mass exodus from standout production and instead lean into youth? Hall (23) and Robinson (22) are viable alternatives to McCaffrey at Pick 1.1, but passing on the legend that is CMC is a bold move. The likes of Kyren Williams (24), Jahmyr Gibbs (22), James Cook (24), Kenneth Walker III (23), De’Von Achane (22) and Jonathon Brooks (21) are among the “24 and under” backs who very well could overtake the veterans and make the leap to RB1 status (if they haven’t already) in 2024.
What’s interesting about 2024 fantasy drafts is that, with gamers leaning wide receiver early on more than ever before, veteran backs like Kamara and Mixon are available into the fifth round. In fact, the only RBs age 27 or older with an ADP in the first three rounds are McCaffrey, Henry and 27-year-old Saquon Barkley. This certainly makes the “older” backs more palatable at cost.
We discussed the concept of Zero RB above, and one of the intriguing offsets of that approach — modified Zero RB, as it were — suggests grabbing one RB early and then ignoring the position until way later in the draft. Here’s the thing: If you spend only one of your first four or five picks on a back, you’re likely going to enter the season with an uneasy feeling at the RB2 spot. And, honestly, that’s OK. With the well-documented high injury rate at the position, it’s more likely than not that you’ll be able to fill that spot with a midround pick in the short term and a bench stash or waiver add later in the year.
This strategy has its merits, so don’t be afraid to execute it if the board isn’t supplying much RB value. I took multiple early-round RBs in the prior examples, but, as you’ll see later, I’m not afraid to fade the RB2 slot when the board calls for a different strategy.
One thing you do need to watch out for, though, is the RB “dead zone” that has been a popular point of discussion in the industry in recent years. Once the top group of backs are off the board (generally after the first four or so rounds in the current landscape) it becomes hard to add value to your team by drafting running backs because of the severe drop-off in talent/situation and because you’re passing on reliable, star players at other positions, especially wide receiver.
That dead zone still exists, but since backs are falling further in drafts, it’s not as pronounced. Whereas the WRs available in the fifth and sixth round used to be considerably better than the RBs, the gap is much closer this year. Consider your current RB options in that range of 12-team drafts: Kamara, Mixon, Walker, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jones, Swift, Najee Harris and Zamir White. And now your WR options in the same range: Tee Higgins, Tank Dell, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown and Jayden Reed.
This is a long way of saying that you can get away with attacking wide receiver in the first few rounds of your draft and still end up with serviceable starters (including solid RB2s) via the early-mid rounds.
In summary: Take an elite back early if you can, but don’t push it if the value isn’t there. Viable starting options are available later than they ever have before, so you’ll be fine attacking wide receiver early.
Wide receiver: Superstars and dart throws
I just ran through some of the intriguing wide receivers available in the middle rounds, and especially after yet another strong rookie class in 2024, the position remains stocked with talent and depth.
That starts at the top, with Lamb, Hill, Chase, St. Brown, Jefferson and Brown, as well as mid-to-back end WR1s like Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Chris Olave, Pittman and Evans.
Though we have a ton of good options, ordering the receivers does start to get a bit tricky around this area of the draft. Are Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers the next wide receivers to post an elite fantasy campaign as rookies? What’s the ceiling for Waddle, Higgins and DeVonta Smith, who aren’t clearly the No. 1 receiver on their own team? Will Drake London reach his ceiling with Kirk Cousins under center? Are there enough balls to go around for Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Dell in Houston? What about for Aiyuk and Samuel in San Francisco … and DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze in Chicago … not to mention DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Seattle? Do we go DeAndre Hopkins or newly paid Calvin Ridley in Tennessee? What do 30-plus receivers Cooper Kupp and Amari Cooper have left in the tank? Can George Pickens overcome the WR-unfriendly Arthur Smith offense? Will Rashee Rice avoid a suspension?
There are a lot of tough questions in that paragraph, and that’s only a partial list of players you’ll be considering in the early-to-middle rounds. The good news is that all of these receivers figure to provide starting-caliber production, but they’re all super close in value, which means you can monitor your draft’s progression and take advantage of some very large tiers of similar players. In fact, there’s so much uncertainty and depth that you’ll be spending late-round picks on players who could easily find themselves in the WR3 mix as early as Week 1.
One warning I’ll throw out there is to make sure you’re properly identifying viable sleepers. Think about this: Over the past five seasons, 42 (or 84%) of the top 50 wide receivers in fantasy PPG (points per game) were selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft (19 were first-rounders). During the same span, 122 of the 150 (81.3%) top-30 WR fantasy campaigns have been courtesy of a player selected during the first three rounds. Pedigree matters.
And it matters for rookies, too.
Of the 322 wide receivers picked in the 2014-2023 NFL drafts, only 33 (10.2%) finished as a top 35 fantasy WR as a rookie (five finished top 12). Of those 33, only three (Nacua, Hill, St. Brown) were picked after the third round. Exceptions happen, but history tells us to avoid reaching on players with low hit rates and focus instead on high-pedigree players.
We should also focus on second-year receivers who were good as rookies. Check this out: Since 2000, 28 of 37 WRs (75.7%) who finished top 30 in fantasy points as a rookie repeated as a top 30 WR in Year 2. Especially with injuries so prominent in the NFL, that is a shockingly high hit rate and worth our attention. Last season, Nacua, Jordan Addison, Reed and Rice were top-30 finishers, with Zay Flowers (31st) just missing the cut. History says most of them will repeat their success in 2024.
On the other hand, I did some offseason research in order to determine if it was worthwhile to target post-hype, second-year receivers who struggled as rookies. The answer: It depends on just how much they struggled. The magic number seems to be “90,” as in, if a wide receiver did not finish in the top 90 at the position in fantasy points as a rookie, you can all but throw in the towel.
Of the 131 WRs drafted in Rounds 1-3 of the 2013 to ’22 NFL drafts), 54 finished 90th or worse in wide receiver fantasy points as rookies. Only five of the 54 went on to have a single top-30 season: Nelson Agholor, Marquise Goodwin, Curtis Samuel, Mike Williams and DJ Chark Jr. None managed a top-10 campaign and only Williams and Chark cracked the top 20. Williams is the biggest success story from the group, and it took him until his fifth season to crack the top 30. In a nutshell, as long as you’re somewhat competent as a rookie, you have a shot at success. If you’re all but a nonfactor, you’re likely a lost cause.
We saw an example of this last season, as this same article warned you to avoid any posthype attraction to 2022 Day 1-2 WRs who busted as rookies. Tyquan Thornton, Wan’Dale Robinson, David Bell, Skyy Moore, Velus Jones Jr., Jameson Williams, Jalen Tolbert, Danny Gray and John Metchie III were all outside the top 90 as rookies, and the best finish by the group in 2023 was Robinson’s 53rd (he was the only one in the top 80).
So who does this study suggest we avoid in 2024? Fortunately, it’s a much shorter list this season. Jalin Hyatt (98th) and Cedric Tillman (118th) comprise the list of 2023 Day 1-2 receivers who finished their rookie season 90th or worse in fantasy points (though there were a few close calls, including Jonathan Mingo 81st, Tre Tucker 88th and Marvin Mims 89th). History tells us that, while maybe one of these guys makes a leap, it’s unlikely, so we shouldn’t invest much in them. Instead, we can focus high-pedigree rookies or posthype, second-year players who at least showed some flashes in Year 1. Names that fit that bill include Addison, Reed, Rice, Flowers, Dell, Josh Downs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Michael Wilson and perhaps even Quentin Johnston.
In summary: Ideally, you’re grabbing a star receiver early, but the position is deep with veteran talent and a strong corps of talented young stars, so there’s no need to force things. When it comes to early-career sleepers and breakouts, history shows that pedigree matters. NFL scouts do a pretty good job of identifying the high-ceiling guys, so when in doubt, trust their work.
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Tight end: Deeper than ever
The tight end position has been trending toward becoming a deep position in recent years and we’ve finally reached the point where if you exit your draft without a solid-to-good tight end, you messed up pretty badly.
Travis Kelce remains an elite option at age 34, but he has competition at the top from Sam LaPorta, who did the unthinkable and led all tight ends in fantasy points as a rookie. Both will cost you a third-round pick, which is fine on the surface, but it’s a bit of a tough pill to swallow considering the values available later.
They include Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, Evan Engram, George Kittle, Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, David Njoku and Jake Ferguson.
That brings us to 10 tight ends, and that doesn’t even include perennial TE1s Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson (recovering from a torn ACL), first-round rookie Brock Bowers, and seasoned vets Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth and Cole Kmet.
As long as you’re not reaching too far, it’s honestly hard to criticize any tight end strategy that involves landing one of the top 10 tight ends, and you may even be fine with anyone I just named. Of course, with youngsters like LaPorta, McBride, Kincaid and Pitts generating so much draft day attention, homing in on reliable veterans like Engram and Njoku seems like the savviest play in 2024.
In summary: Grab your tight end when the value is right — and rarely at the expense of a running back or wide receiver you covet early on. You can wait until the middle rounds and still land a solid starter.
D/ST: Same as usual
If you’re not streamin’, you’re not strivin’. Or something like that. Stream defenses weekly and profit.
Kicker: Ditto
The legend that is Daniel Carlson has finished as fantasy’s top-scoring kicker in both 2021 and 2022. Did that convince you to reach on him a bit in your 2023 draft? If so, you ended up with fantasy’s No. 24-scoring kicker. In fact, prior to Carlson’s streak, the last No. 1-scoring kicker to even finish top 10 the following season was Matt Bryant in 2017. Seriously. Don’t draft a kicker before the last round. In fact, don’t pick one at all unless forced to. More on that later.
Now that we have a pretty good feel for the 2024 fantasy football draft pool, I have a few additional thoughts on draft strategy.
During my draft, I’m obviously keeping track of whom I’ve picked and which positions need filling, but I’m never going to pass on an obvious value, even if it’s not a position of need. Rarely do I complete a draft in which there wasn’t a point at which a player was plummeting well beyond his ADP and I anxiously awaited my opportunity to pounce.
An example of this came in the 14-team 2021 FSGA Champions league. I picked 11th and opened with Travis Kelce. I took a back at 18th overall (Antonio Gibson), but then followed with three wide receivers (Mike Evans, Robert Woods, Tee Higgins) before selecting my second RB in the sixth round (Kareem Hunt). That was a long time to wait for a second back in a 14-team league, but I couldn’t pass on that WR value. The next four picks after I took Evans were Chris Carson, James Robinson, Mike Davis and Travis Etienne Jr. (none finished as a top-20 RB). The next RB picks after Woods — who was a fringe WR1 before his injury that season — were Denver committee backs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. After Higgins, the next RB picks were Chase Edmonds, Myles Gaskin and Trey Sermon. Ouch. Had I forced a second running back earlier, there’s no way I would’ve led the standings all season before falling just short in the title game (nearly my third title in four years).
Passing on value is an obvious recipe for disaster over the long term, but many do it. There are always players — think peak Woods, Tyler Lockett, Brandin Cooks, Adam Thielen, Jarvis Landry, Eric Decker, Derrick Mason, Pierre Garcon, Golden Tate, Alshon Jeffery and Julian Edelman — who consistently fell too far in drafts and often proved solid values. These players aren’t new or young or particularly exciting, but I’ve always feasted on them. Look, unless you’re in a tournament, you don’t need a home run with every single pick in order to win the title. You need to get to the playoffs first, and, from there, you need a competent lineup and some luck. In order to achieve both, having a few reliable starters, like say Courtland Sutton, Chris Godwin and Diontae Johnson, is key.
Here’s something else to think about: I don’t think we fully acknowledge as an industry how different our lineups look in the playoffs than they do entering Week 1. And that’s why focusing too much on filling out a perfect lineup on draft day isn’t as important as collecting the best talent possible. Where is the line? You’ll know it when you see it (aka when guys like Brian Robinson Jr. and Sutton are staring you in the face).
I mentioned the 14-team FSGA Champions league earlier, so let me take you back to the 2018 season of that league. Not unlike the aforementioned 2021 campaign, I drafted for value and ended up with a very Zero-RB-friendly squad. My top RBs after the draft were Marshawn Lynch, Duke Johnson, Kerryon Johnson, Jordan Wilkins, Devontae Booker and Latavius Murray. Zero (Zero!) of those backs were on my roster in Week 16, but I won the championship with Damien Williams, Jaylen Samuels and Elijah McGuire in my starting lineup. How did I win with that trio? Well, by drafting the best players on the board, I also had peak Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Zach Ertz and Patrick Mahomes (OK, maybe that one was lucky). Had I forced myself to pick early-round RBs over Ertz and that WR corps, I doubt I win the title in what is a very competitive league.
Call me a value-based drafter. Call me conservative. I don’t care. I’m happy as long as you can’t call me someone who is willfully giving an edge to my opponents.
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OK, so your draft is in the rearview mirror. Your team looks great. There’s no way you’re losing this title. Your work here is done. Right
Wrong.
I’m in a lot of leagues, and most are against industry experts, but I’m also in a few long-running, casual leagues with college friends, family and neighbors. In both situations, there are extremely active managers and there are extremely lax managers. Some (like me) are rarely content and are tinkering with trade offers and waivers often in order to get one step closer to a title. Others attack waivers only when needed (injury, bye weeks) and are the strongest bet to commit the most heinous act of all; ignoring trade proposals (more on this later!).
As you might imagine, the active managers win at a much higher rate than the casual ones. Is it possible to simply hit on nearly every draft pick and compete for a league title? Of course. In a high-variance game like fantasy football, it happens.
In fact, that reminds me of the infamous 2007 season in my long-running 16-team, family and friends dynasty league. With zero fantasy football acumen and only Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots and Miami Hurricanes fandom at his disposal (the perfect storm, as it would turn out), my 13-year-old brother Matthew drafted Patriots Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Stephen Gostkowski, as well as Adrian Peterson and Kellen Winslow II. So, yeah, the top-scoring QB, WR and K, as well as the WR11 (Welker) and top-five finishers at RB and TE. Matt never (or, at least, very rarely) checked his team and still started 9-0. The funny part of the story was Week 10 when the Patriots were on a bye. Matt, whose team otherwise averaged 105.3 points per week, didn’t check his lineup and lost 69-9. Having relied only on his draft while failing to add complementary producers during the season, he inexplicably went on to lose in the semifinals.
On the other hand, my team (this was before my fantasy analyst days, by the way) started 0-7, leading me to shake up my roster with a few trades. I won six in a row, somehow made the playoffs and went on to win the league title. His team was way better, but (A) it’s a weekly game and (B) fantasy points come in all shapes and sizes.
Matthew “lucked” himself into a stacked roster, but post-draft negligence cost him what should’ve been a surefire league title. How do you avoid a similar fate? Let’s take a look at strategies you can use on the trade and waiver market.
What better way to kick this section off than another real-life example from one of my long-running dynasty leagues?
Some quick background: It’s a 12-team, PPR, superflex league in which we can roster 25 players, 10 of which are starters (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 3 flex, 1 superflex).
After years of wheeling and dealing, I entered June of 2023 with five projected starting quarterbacks: Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson and Geno Smith. Herbert, Watson and Wilson were acquired in trades over the prior two years, with the likes of Derrick Henry, Deebo Samuel Sr. (after his 2021 breakout), Saquon Barkley (after his 2022 rebound) and picks sent away. I had drafted Jones in the startup years ago, and Smith was a savvy waiver add (*pats self on back*) prior to his 2022 breakout.
Quarterbacks are extremely valuable and hard to acquire in 12-plus team superflex formats (especially dynasty), so having an arsenal like this is massively advantageous. I was content hanging onto all five QBs into the season, but I constantly explored trade possibilities during and after our rookie draft with the hopes of adding one more star to my starting lineup.
I flirted with deals for veterans like Amari Cooper and Josh Jacobs (who I ended up acquiring during the 2023 season for a 2024 first-round pick) and breakout candidates like James Cook and Alexander Mattison before finally shipping Daniel Jones and Romeo Doubs for Travis Etienne. Etienne joined RBs Breece Hall and Najee Harris (later Jacobs), WRs Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, DJ Moore and Puka Nacua, TE Darren Waller and QBs Herbert and Watson to fill out my 10 starters. I still had Wilson and Smith as QB depth, as well as a bunch of young WRs, which helped make moving Jones and Doubs for a starting RB with elite upside an easy call.
Did I just write all this so I can gloat over my loaded squad? Absolutely (I went on to win the title, after all). But I also posted it as a lesson: Team building, whether it’s season-long, dynasty or keeper, is an ongoing process. You’ll rarely be quite this stacked at one position in season-long leagues, especially with smaller rosters, but you will almost always be better at one position than you are another.
Many fantasy managers don’t maximize their chances at a league title because they are content with their roster and are afraid to shake things up with a trade (more on overcoming this fear later). Especially as bye weeks begin to dry up and your playoffs draw near, it’s important to focus on maximizing your starting lineup. If, for example, you’re shaky at WR but have four quality RBs, you’re just hurting yourself by not shopping around.
Trading in fantasy is one of the most polarizing aspects of the game, as most managers seem to either be extremely aggressive or extremely quiet in the department. If you’ve been playing against the same leaguemates for a long time, I imagine you could place each of them in one of the two categories within seconds of contemplation. Understanding the philosophies, tendencies, skill levels, etc. of your leaguemates is an edge you can use when evaluating the trade market. For example, let’s say I was holding the first overall pick in a rookie draft back in 2021. I would’ve had Ja’Marr Chase all but locked in as my selection. However, along the way, I observe that someone in my league is willing to pay almost any cost for Kyle Pitts. I’d be remiss not to reach out to that manager to see how much he’d offer (this is based on a true story, as in one of my competitive dynasty leagues, a savvy fantasy analyst traded three first-round rookie picks for Pitts).
There are countless ways in which knowing your leaguemates can help your cause, and sometimes it’s as simple as identifying which ones respond and which ones don’t. Or which ones are open to trading and which ones are afraid to make a move with a crippling fear of the possibility that it won’t work out. This is very real, and these managers overvalue their players so much that it’s not worth your time to even negotiate.
I mentioned that managers are generally either aggressive/active or conservative/quiet on the trade market, and I am, without question, the former. I love trading. I love throwing out offers. I love fielding offers. The only thing better than a trade proposal alert is a trade accepted alert. I throw out trade offers because I enjoy the negotiating process, but as the commissioner of several leagues across multiple sports, I also like to try to inject activity into my leagues. Perhaps my offer gets declined, but now that manager is on the league page and maybe he counters, makes a waiver move or makes an offer to someone else. An active league is a great league.
One drawback to throwing out trade offers is that you’re sure to rub some people the wrong way. The fun of fantasy is that we don’t all value players the same way. Unfortunately, it’s very easy for managers to become offended — sometimes infuriated — if they believe you’re trying to rip them off. Sometimes this person will simply ignore the offer, others will reply with an “LOL,” and others will lose their cool and go on an expletive-laden tirade in the league forum or group chat. We’ve all seen it, and I’m asking you right now — please don’t be that person.
Look, if someone keeps sending you “Antonio Gibson and Dawson Knox for Nico Collins” offers, fine, I get the irritation. But, in most scenarios, even if you don’t like the offer, it’s not hard to understand where the other person is coming from. Even if I get an offer I’m not even considering, I’m excited by the idea of someone being open for business. If someone is higher than I am on a player on my roster, perhaps I can take advantage with a counteroffer and improve my squad (This was actually the case with the aforementioned superflex trade, as I made the initial offer because I know the other person was high on Doubs). Also, my first offer is rarely my best offer. I mean, why would it be? That’s negotiating 101. Your first offer should be fair and sensible, but it can also be a starting point. How many of you have thrown out an initial trade offer that gets accepted within minutes? Your initial reaction is almost always: “Oh no! What have I done?! Did I just rip myself off?!” We’ve all been there.
Five tricks of the trade
To wrap up on the trading topic, here are a some tricks I use when making/considering offers:
1. When making an offer, don’t just consider what the other manager can do for you. Look closely at their roster and see if there is a void you can fill. Referring back again to my superflex trade, I identified a manager who had a clear void at QB, as well as a good, young RB/WR. It made that manager a natural trade partner and, sure enough, we worked it out painlessly. If he had two quality starting QBs on his roster, there’s no way he’s making that deal.
2. Put yourself in the other manager’s shoes. This next one relates to my first point but focuses more on the “fairness” of your offer. Once you have a trade proposal in mind, flip the script, imagine you’re on the other side of it and think about if you’d accept it, consider it or laugh off the offer. If it’s the latter, adjust the deal. If you think you’d at least consider it, hit that “send” button, baby!
3. Cure crippling trade fear with this simple trick! If someone offers you “Player A” for your “Player B” and you can’t decide what to do, imagine you already had “Player A” and were being offered “Player B.” Would you accept the deal now? I realize how simple and pointless this might seem, but it’s no secret that we’re all guilty of overrating our own players. In fact, it’s human nature. Specifically, it’s a cognitive bias called the endowment effect, in which we value an asset more when it’s in our possession than we would if it wasn’t. I use the strategy of swapping the players in my head before deciding on pretty much any offer I receive, and I absolutely recommend it, especially if you’re afraid of the “accept” button.
4. Don’t get mad about trade offers. I wrote about this earlier, but I’m reiterating. This drives me nuts. Even if you don’t like the offer, just be happy you have someone in your league unafraid to keep the league active by making offers.
5. Pick your spots. A top local beat writer tweets that “Player X” is unstoppable in camp and looks like he’s in line for a breakout. The initial inclination will almost always be to make a trade offer for that player, but now is not the time. Even if you’re buying the hype, wait a week or so until the industry is buzzing about someone else before making the move. On the other hand, if there’s a negative report on a player and you’re not buying it, that is the perfect opportunity to make an offer.
Waivers can be a tedious process when you manage 15 or so fantasy football teams like I have the past decade or so. And yet I still put the time into making claims in every single league.
Why? Because if I don’t, I’m putting myself at a disadvantage. Every single week, there is at least a player or two on waivers who is well worth adding to your roster, if not your starting lineup (one big injury can really shake things up in a hurry). And that goes for the weeks leading up to the season, as well.
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The 2023 season provided plenty of league-winning waiver adds, including Kyren Williams (60.5% of teams with him on their roster made the playoffs), LaPorta (60.4%), Nacua (59.0%), Raheem Mostert (58.5%), C.J. Stroud (54.0%) and De’Von Achane (51.7%). In the prior three years, the likes of Christian Watson (44%), Jamaal Williams (46%), Geno Smith (42%), Cordarrelle Patterson (62%), Hunter Renfrow (60%), Elijah Mitchell (55%), Alexander Mattison (54%), James Robinson (67%) and Justin Herbert (59%) were game-changing waivers adds. It’s those types of players who get you a gigantic edge in your league, and you’re simply playing at a disadvantage if you fail to remain active on waivers.
Besides the common-sense “drop my worst player and add the best available player” waiver strategy, one trick you can use during the season is to drop your kicker and/or D/ST and instead hold a skill position player for a few extra days. In fact, as someone who often streams both positions, I’ll just straight up drop my kicker and D/ST in order to add to the available player pool, which slightly increases my chances of getting who I want off the wire.
For example, let’s say I use the Seattle Seahawks D/ST in Weeks 1-2 against the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots this season but have no interest in using it against the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions the following two weeks. I’ll cut bait right away on Tuesday. This way, one of my leaguemates might place a claim on the Seattle D/ST instead of a free agent I have on my radar.
And in this scenario, unless there is an available D/ST with a terrific short-term matchup, I’d likely use the roster spot on a skill position player in an uncertain situation heading into the week. Let’s say Christian McCaffrey hurt his toe two days earlier and is questionable for the upcoming week. Instead of grabbing a dime-a-dozen D/ST, I’ll go after Elijah Mitchell. If McCaffrey plays, I just cut Mitchell for a defense on Sunday. If McCaffrey is out, I just found myself a potential starter and can cut someone else for a D/ST. I most certainly use this hack more often with my kicker slot, since we know there is a ton of randomness with that position. As long as you remember to check your lineup Sunday morning, the strategy is a no-brainer.
Oh, and I recommend this during the period between your draft and the start of the season, too. Even if forced to draft a kicker and D/ST, I’ll just drop them (assuming league rules allow it) and instead grab a high-upside insurance RB or other skill position player to keep rostered until closer to Week 1. There’s very little to lose and quite a lot to gain (speaking as someone who fondly recalls dropping Chris Boswell and adding the legend that is James Robinson in the week leading up to Week 1 back in 2020). By the way, guys like Robinson in 2020 and Patterson in 2021 are not alone: There are players like them available late in drafts or on preseason or early-season waivers every single year. Last year, for example, it cost you little (or in most cases, nothing) to get your hands on Love, Purdy, Goff, Stroud, Mostert, Williams, Jerome Ford, Zack Moss, Nacua, Nico Collins, Tank Dell and LaPorta. If you’re active, you can butcher your draft and still claw your way to a title.
Eric Karabell breaks down what the fantasy future could look like for running back Breece Hall next season.
A lot of what I just laid out will apply to most of you, but I realize leagues come in all shapes and sizes. In fact, I know this better than most, as none of the 12 teams I managed in 2023 (not to mention dozens of best ball and mock drafts) are exactly the same, with a steady mix of season-long, dynasty, keeper, IDP, super-deep lineups and/or very creative scoring. One of my past leagues even had punters and head coaches (yes, you can use both in the ESPN game)!
I often ask about how to adjust strategy based on these leagues, so while this isn’t the place to get too much into the weeds, here are ways I do just that.
Dynasty leagues
As much as I enjoy a good season-long draft, there is nothing I love more than dynasty leagues. It’s the closest you can get to playing GM, as you retain your assets year to year and can make moves at nearly any point on the calendar. There are few better feelings in fantasy than hitting a home run on a rookie pick (just ask those who spent a late first-rounder on Justin Jefferson in 2020 or snagged Nacua or LaPorta last season) or watching one of your sleeper/bench stashes emerge (take a bow, Jalen Hurts, Rhamondre Stevenson and Nico Collins stashers).
Oh, and the season never ends. Sure, it stinks to have a bad team, but if you fall out of contention in dynasty, the offseason begins — at least for you — and you can immediately begin making trades and waiver moves to set yourself up for future success. As odd as it sounds, sometimes that can be more of an enjoyable ride than a stressful playoff run. And when it eventually leads to a title? There are few better feelings in this game.
The best advice I can give as it pertains to dynasty is to consider perceived value. Dynasty managers love unproven youngsters and first-round draft picks way more than they like established veterans, excluding obvious superstars in their early prime. We get bored with guys who just get the job done year after year, and we are easily distracted by the shiny new toy.
You can and should take advantage of this, and one way to do that in a startup draft is to go extremely young at the expense of winning in the short term. That might seem counterintuitive to what I just said, but bear with me. Aim for 20- to 24-year-old players (adjusting slightly by position) and do your best to fade everyone else. Not everyone you pick will pan out, but enough will, and within a year or two your roster should be peaking while the managers who drafted depreciating assets will be fading. Odds are, your slow start will also allow you another potential superstar via an early pick in the Year 2 rookie draft.
I executed this exact plan in a superflex dynasty startup prior to 2023. I drafted extremely young and my team finished in last, as expected. I made a few trades along the way and, while I’m still sorting out my RB position (the dynasty landscape at RB is gross), I feel great about the future thanks to my core of Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, Chris Olave, George Pickens, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jayden Reed, Kyle Pitts and the first overall pick of the 2024 rookie draft, Marvin Harrison Jr.
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This strategy sets you up with a good, deep roster of young players entering their prime and also an extremely attractive roster on the trade market. That reminds me of one of my championship-winning teams from back in 2020. Prior to that season, my roster was talented, young and deep, which allowed me to make a push for one more superstar. I traded Terry McLaurin, Raheem Mostert and a pair of future second-round picks for some guy named Davante Adams. That was fair market value at the time and proved to be a title-winning move.
Speaking of dynasty trades, don’t be afraid to trade rookie picks. I swap them often, especially if it lands me an established good player. We tend to overestimate the hit rate of rookies (like it or not, a lot of the rookies you’re excited about right now heading into 2024 will bust) and, as long as the player isn’t “too old,” turning what is essentially a lottery ticket into a weekly starter should be a no-brainer. I’m especially aggressive trading away picks if I expect my team to be good (my picks would, in turn, be late in the round the next year).
Keeper leagues
Prefer season-long leagues but hate the feeling of not getting to hang on to that amazing, late-round, home run pick you made for multiple years? A keeper league is your new best friend.
It’s hard to give detailed advice here, as keeper leagues are known for having all kinds of rules and regulations pertaining to whom you’re allowed to keep, how many players you can keep and, in many cases, which picks you must surrender in order to keep players. That said, I get a lot of keeper questions and usually they are incredibly easy to answer. Look, if you’re able to keep only a player or three, you’re basically playing in a season-long league and should thus keep the players who help you in the short term, adjusting only slightly for age.
The best advice in these scenarios is to consider ADP. A realistic question I get is something like, “Should I keep Garrett Wilson for a second-round pick or Nico Collins for a 13th-round pick?” Most agree Wilson is the better asset, but both players have an ADP in the second round. In this scenario, you keep Collins and you’ll still get a player similar to Wilson (if not Wilson himself) when you’re on the clock in the second round. I can’t stress enough how easy it is to make keeper decisions simply by considering ADP.
By the way, we have always had keeper support within the ESPN Fantasy game, but new in 2022 was keeper-by-round support. If you’re in a league like the one above, your commissioner can now, for example, make Collins your 13th-round pick, as opposed to all keepers comprising the first few rounds of your draft.
IDP: Individual Defensive Players
There are some hardcore, serious IDP leagues out there, but I’d guess that most of you who are in a league with defensive players have a fairly normal set of starting slots at the offensive positions and then something in the range of one to six IDP starters. In this scenario (and assuming default scoring), you simply don’t need to value defensive players very highly in your draft or on the trade market. Sure, a standout linebacker like Foye Oluokun can give you an edge and has midround value, but because IDP scoring is generally a step or two below offense, and because you’re likely starting only one or two players at very deep positions, you’re going to have plenty of good options, both during the draft and on waivers during the season. Also, casual players know offense significantly better than defense, so identifying and finding good starters will generally be easier. In a nutshell, in leagues with fairly basic IDP settings, you should focus on offense first and worry about IDP later.
Superflex
Superflex means that your starting lineup includes a flex spot that can be filled with a quarterback (in ESPN leagues, this is the “OP” spot). Because the worst starting QB option in a given week is generally going to be projected to outscore the best flex options, this means that each team in your league will ideally be starting two quarterbacks.
Needless to say, QB is significantly more valuable in this format. You should move all quarterbacks up your draft board and plan to roster an extra player or two at the position, as starting two good QBs each week needs to be your primary goal. Whereas top QBs Allen, Hurts, Jackson, Mahomes, Stroud and Richardson are picked in the third- to fifth-round range in one-QB leagues, you can expect all five to be off the board in the first round and a half of superflex leagues.
Knowing that the early QB run will lead to stars at other positions falling in the draft, my goal is almost never to open a superflex draft by picking two consecutive QBs. Instead, I’ll aim for one star QB and then grab an elite back or wide receiver. Once the initial rush of QBs ends, it tends to quiet down significantly for several rounds, so I simply monitor the situation and eventually pounce on a good second QB when the opportunity presents itself (generally one in the 10-to-18 range). I also make sure to grab either a reliable or upside third QB once the starters begin to dry up. You have to be careful to walk the line of not reaching too early and jeopardizing the rest of your roster while also not getting stuck with a really poor QB situation that handcuffs you all season long. In a perfect world, I have a very good QB1, a reliable QB2 (guys like Cousins, Rodgers and Trevor Lawrence are perfectly reasonable QB2 targets) and someone with upside (think Herbert in 2020 and Burrow or Hurts in 2021. This season, you’ll want to keep your eyes on second-years Bryce Young and Will Levis and both Steelers QBs, for example).
Best Ball
If you’re not familiar, “best ball” means you simply draft your team and then it requires no additional action. There are generally no trades or waiver adds and your weekly starters are determined by the highest scorers at each position that week. For the most part, your strategy isn’t changing massively from a normal league, but you do need to ensure you have more depth at each position since you can’t trade or add players, even for injury. In a standard format, for example, you might draft 20 players, so you’d want 2-3 QBs, 5-6 RBs, 7-8 WRs, 2-3 TEs and 2-3 D/STs (these formats rarely use kickers and sometimes don’t include D/ST). I won’t go too into the weeds here since league settings and contest structure matter, but if you’re in a fairly straight-up 10-plus team league, you don’t need to adjust your strategy much from the usual. However, in a tournament setting, you’ll want to employ additional strategies, like stacking (drafting Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel in 2023 would’ve been a massive edge) and considering matchups during championship week (often Week 17).
6-point pass TD
I quickly want to touch on leagues that award six points for a passing TD, as opposed to the standard four points. Honestly, I don’t adjust too much for this. As a whole, quarterbacks are more valuable, but there is still sufficient depth at the position, so we don’t need to move them significantly up our ranks. The key is bumping up QBs projected to throw a lot of touchdowns at the expense of quarterbacks who do a lot of damage with their legs. The likes of Hurts, Richardson, Murray, Jackson and Daniels take a hit, whereas Stroud, Cousins, Rodgers, Purdy, Stafford and Tagovailoa get a boost. A quick scan over projections and/or historical stats is your friend here.
TE premium
Leagues that award 1.5 or even 2.0 points per reception to tight ends are becoming more popular and have been common in high-stakes leagues for many years. It makes sense when you consider that the No. 5 TE in 1.0 PPR leagues last season (Kittle) scored 203.2 points, which would’ve ranked 32nd at wide receiver, 18th at running back and 20th at quarterback. In a 1.5 PPR TE premium league, Andrews would’ve scored 243.7 points, which would’ve ranked 16th, 10th and 15th, respectively. Perfect? Perhaps not. Better? Of course.
In this setup (this also applies to leagues in which you must start two tight ends), you’d bump up the value of all tight ends and could consider top options like Kelce and LaPorta as early as the second round. You should also make it a priority to stash a tight end with breakout potential and/or upside on your bench (Chig Okonkwo, Jelani Woods and rookies Bowers and Ben Sinnott come to mind).
If you’re interested in trying out this format, you can customize your league scoring by position in the ESPN fantasy game.
There’s not much else I can add here that I haven’t said already. When it comes to the draft, know your league settings, have a good set of rankings/tiers, be aware of ADP and don’t pass on obvious values.
Once the draft concludes, be active. Monitor NFL news and be ready to make savvy waiver moves and trade offers while loading your bench with upside. That might sound overly simplified, but like almost anything else in life, hard work will pay off in the long run.