Betting tens of thousands to win hundreds: Inside the wild world of ‘No’ bets
Credit to Author: David Purdum| Date: Fri, 19 Jul 2024 14:10:35 EST
Professional bettor Rufus Peabody looked down at a text from his brother and betting partner Tom Peabody on the Sunday morning before the final round of the U.S. Open.
“Well, it’s generally optimal to not lose $360,000.”
The Peabody brothers had taken a $360,000 position on Bryson DeChambeau not to win the U.S. Open at -2400 odds and that sarcastic text reflected their current dilemma. If DeChambeau did not win the tournament, the Peabody’s would win $15,000. But when the text from Tom arrived ahead of the final round, DeChambeau was leading by three shots.
Entering the tournament, Rufus thought the odds of DeChambeau not winning were closer to -3200, so he believed having to pay only -2400 was a bargain.
DeChambeau would go on to win the U.S. Open in thrilling finish that cost the Peabody group $360,000. They managed to mitigate the damage with other wagers, knocking their net loss for the weekend down to $100,000, but it still stung.
“It sucks to lose,” Rufus Peabody said. “But I was confident in the bets we placed and in the process behind them, and I would place those again.”
At face value, such bets may seem ludicrous. Justifying losing $360,000 while attempting to win $15,000 to a casual bettor can be challenging and, according to Peabody, usually results in insults or even half-hearted accusations of money laundering. But more often than not, high stakes, successful gamblers are behind the bets, and they swear that if the price is right, risking a lot to win a little is worth it.
“If I see an edge,” Peabody said, “I’m going to bet the edge.”
Big golf bets from customers risking a lot to win little began showing up weekly this spring at betting exchange Sporttrade. The bettors wagered thousands of dollars, sometimes to make just a few bucks, on players not winning a tournament.
In May, a $3,731 bet on Tony Finau not to win the PGA Championship at odds of -20,306, produced an $18 profit for one customer. A month later, a $73,725 wager on Tom Kim not to win the Travelers Championship came in at Sporttrade at -5900 odds. Kim lost in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler, and the customer won a net $1,249.50.
But the wild “No” bets haven’t all been winners.
Last week, Sporttrade took two bets, totaling $68,790, on Robert MacIntyre not to win the Genesis Scottish Open. The bets, at an approximate average price of -5723, would’ve netted $1,185, but instead MacIntyre birdied No. 18 on Sunday to win the tournament.
Contest: Super Bowl Champion
Outcome: BAL Ravens – No
Shares/Price: 49.466 | $14.5
Order Size: $4,229.3
Potential Profit: $702.9
Sporttrade CEO and founder Alex Kane said an increasing number of his approximately 5,000 customers place large No wagers, primarily on golf and baseball, but there also have been a few on the NFL and college football.
A betting exchange such as Sporttrade operates more like a stock market than traditional sportsbooks, with customers buying and selling shares of wagers. Sporttrade plays the role of broker and takes a 2% commission on profits from successful trades.
Kane says the customers making the largest No bets are almost always sophisticated, price-sensitive bettors with much more in play than just a single wager. “I’d say, they range from sharp to very sharp,” he told ESPN.
Sometimes arbitrage is in play, a tactic where bettors take both sides of a wager at advantageous odds. Other times, they approach a big No bet as part of a portfolio of wagers, looking to hedge or balance their overall position.
Kane pointed to a 31-year-old office worker in New Jersey who has been placing big No bets with Sporttrade on futures markets in the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB and golf for the past two years. The bettor, who communicated with ESPN on the condition of anonymity, factors the yield from each bet, how long it will be until the wager is settled and how it fits into his overall portfolio of positions.
“The strategy behind the [No] bet is the same as any other bet,” the bettor wrote in a text to ESPN. “I bet them when I believe there is value when making the bet, while also factoring in the time it may take for the position to be closed. Just like betting ‘Yes’ when one thinks a player or team is underrated, one can bet No when they think a player or team is overrated.”
Brock Culver, a 24-year-old application engineer in Jersey City, New Jersey, shorted the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 14 with a $4,925 bet on Sporttrade at -6701 odds that they wouldn’t win the National League West. The bet would pay a net $73.50.The Diamondbacks entered the All-Star break seven games back of the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers. At the same time, Culver says he placed another wager on Arizona to win the West at 100-1 odds with FanDuel.
“I have it set up right now so I lose $20 if the Diamondbacks don’t win and I win $10,000, net $5,000, if the Dbacks win the NL West,” Culver explained.
Bookmakers lay heavy prices routinely, according to Peabody. Whenever a bettor makes a $5 bet on the New York Giants to win the Super Bowl at 200-1 or -20,000, for example, the bookmaker takes on the $1,000 liability despite the potential for only a $5 profit.
“Sportsbooks lay minus 5000 all the time,” Peabody said. “I think that’s one reason why sportsbooks are able to do so well with things like parlays, because the sportsbooks are willing to lay -5,000 if they know the true price is -6,000.”
Every bet over $3,000 that’s placed on Sporttrade is published on X (formerly Twitter). The company calls it the Whale Tracker, and its following tripled this spring, Kane says, in part due to the interest in the big No bets.
The Open Championship
Robert MacIntyre – No | Winner
Odds: -6276 (98.4%)
Bet Size: $73,800.0
Potential Profit: $1,176.0
For Sporttrade, the Whale Tracker is a marketing tool that uses the eye-catching volume of its biggest customers to attract attention to the platform.
“We’re never going to have the budget of a FanDuel or DraftKings, so the Whale Tracker is just a different way to spend a marketing budget,” Kane said.
Not everyone is a fan of the Whale Tracker, though, and Kane says he gets messages from customers asking how they can avoid having their wagers posted on social media. He tells them to bet less than $3,000 per trade.
“Sure enough, every Sunday, we have a guy who bets MLB and he makes six straight bets that are $2,999 to stay just below the Whale Tracker threshold,” Kane said.
Still, the big No bets continue to show up on the Whale Tracker, and, according to Kane, they’re increasing. On Tuesday, a $73,800 bet on Robert MacIntyre not to win the Open Championship popped up on the Whale Tracker. At odds of -6276, the bet would win $1,176, if MacIntyre doesn’t claim the Claret Jug.
Peabody says, despite the big hit he suffered on the U.S. Open, he’ll be making more big wagers to win a little in the future. He told ESPN that he bet against DeChambeau again this week at the Open Championship, risking $220,000 to win a net $10,000 on DeChambeau not winning at Royal Troon.
“If you can kind of stay even-keeled and take the ups and downs, there’s opportunity there,” Peabody said. “I think the emotional part is the thing that most recreational bettors would have trouble dealing with … the idea of losing so much to win so little.”