2024 MLB betting: Five storylines to watch after break
Credit to Author: David Purdum and Doug Greenberg| Date: Thu, 18 Jul 2024 07:37:53 EST
At the All-Star break, two superstar sluggers lead the MVP races, a rookie phenom is in contention for the Cy Young and the American League Central boasts both the best and worst teams to bet so far this season. Here are five baseball betting storylines at the break:
Winners of the past three American League MVP awards, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the favorites to take home this season’s honors in the AL and NL, respectively. Judge’s -325 odds and Ohtani’s -350 price on ESPN BET carry a respective 76.47% and 77.78% implied probability, and both have been odds-on favorites since mid-June.
By the odds, there is only one player in each league who can challenge Judge and/or Ohtani for the crown. In the American League, it’s breakout star Gunnar Henderson, who carries a +300 line after opening the season at 14-1, which was outside the top six. In the NL, it’s two-time MVP Bryce Harper, who has moved down from his Opening Day line of 12-1 to +475. No other player is closer than 16-1.
A lot of invested bettors will be watching closely how the Pittsburgh Pirates handle rookie ace Paul Skenes in the second half. Skenes opened around 200-1 to win the NL Cy Young, when he made his MLB debut in early May. He’s 6-0 with 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings in his first 11 starts and has surged into contention for the NL Cy Young. As of Tuesday at ESPN BET, Skenes was +450 to win the award, behind only Chris Sale (+125) and Zack Wheeler (+160), the two consensus favorites. There have been more bets on Skenes to win the Cy Young than any other player at ESPN BET.
“Entering the season, it wasn’t clear if the Pirates would let the rookie accumulate enough innings, which is a factor in the award,” Patrick Jay, senior vice president and head of sportsbook for ESPN BET, said in an email. “Through the first half of the year, they have let him pitch late into games, to the point where many were surprised when he was pulled after seven no-hit innings the other night. Additionally, no other NL pitcher has made a runaway case for the Cy Young thus far.”
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The Guardians were one of the biggest surprises of MLB’s first half, and that translated to their being the most profitable money line team thus far, as they are up 13.75 units against the money line, per ESPN BET odds, meaning a $100 bettor would be up $1,375. That pales in comparison to seasons past. The Guardians have the lowest units won at the All-Star break for any leader over the past four seasons, with the San Francisco Giants setting the high for that period at 24.18 in 2021.
Cleveland opened this season at 60-1 to win the World Series and have shortened all the way down to 15-1.
The Guardians have been profitable, for sure, but the best bet in baseball during the first half of the season was fading the White Sox, who are down 33.95 units against the money line. That means if you bet $100 against the White Sox in every game, you’d be up around $3,200. That’s the most any team has been down on the money line at the All-Star Break since the 2021 Arizona Diamondbacks, and no other team this season is down more than $2,200 (Miami Marlins).
The White Sox (27-71), who trail the Guardians by 32.5 games in the American League Central, have been favored in an MLB-low seven games this season. Entering the season, only three teams had attracted more money from bettors to win the AL than the White Sox at BetRivers sportsbooks. Whoops.
For bettors playing pitching matchups early in the season, there was no better bet than Trevor Williams, who guided the Washington Nationals to a 9-2 record and a profit of 11.15 units in games he started. The big caveat is that the 32-year-old has been sidelined since late May with an elbow injury, eliminating any chance of him regressing to the mean.
For pitchers who made at least 16 starts, the top three in units gained were Aaron Nola (up 8.5 units), Shota Imanaga (8.45) and Simeon Woods Richardson (8.45).