Way-Too-Early Top 25: Houston at No. 1; decimated Duke, Kentucky fall
Credit to Author: Jeff Borzello| Date: Fri, 26 Apr 2024 08:33:04 EST
It’s been only 17 days since UConn won the national championship, but the landscape of the 2024-25 college basketball season has shifted dramatically.
There are almost 1,900 players in the transfer portal, and the vast majority of rosters are far from settled. We won’t achieve any semblance of finality for a couple of months, though the transfer portal closing May 1 should bring some calm.
Since our initial ranking, Houston has taken over the top spot. The Cougars received good news from fifth-year seniors L.J. Cryer and J’Wan Roberts and landed Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan. Kansas is right behind them after bringing in three key transfers. (If the Jayhawks get Hunter Dickinson back, they’ll be No. 1.) Baylor and Alabama also saw significant rises.
Duke, our initial No. 1, fell several spots after seven players entered the transfer portal. The Blue Devils will still be ultra-talented, but we have to wait to see what else coach Jon Scheyer does in the transfer portal. BYU plummeted out after coach Mark Pope and a slew of players left the program; Pope’s new program, Kentucky, has also dropped out because the Wildcats don’t have enough players to field a lineup at this point. And Saint Mary’s fell after Aidan Mahaney entered the portal.
Quick reminder on the ground rules:
Any player ranked in the top 60 of ESPN’s 2024 NBA draft rankings is considered a departure — for now. Obviously, a team’s ranking will be adjusted should those players opt to return to school. This heavily impacts the rosters and rankings of Creighton and Clemson, which have Ryan Kalkbrenner and PJ Hall, respectively, ranked just inside the top 60.
Players not ranked in the top 60 are included as returnees unless they already announced their intentions to leave school and turn pro or are listed as seniors.
This is the final offseason impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, as players have an extra year of eligibility due to the pandemic-impacted 2020-21 season. We’re not going to try to guess what each senior is going to do, so we’re projecting them as departures unless there has been an indication they’re returning.
With that out of the way, it’s time to check in on the latest Way-Too-Early rankings as we inch closer to the next stage of the offseason.
Last updated: April 25, 2024
Previous ranking: 7
Once L.J. Cryer and J’Wan Roberts announced they were planning to use their extra year of eligibility, Houston put itself in the preseason top-five discussion. Then Kelvin Sampson landed Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan to replace Jamal Shead at point guard. We know the Cougars will be physical, we know the Cougars will defend, and a healthy Terrance Arceneaux would bring back some intriguing offensive potential.
Projected starting lineup
Milos Uzan (9.0 PPG at Oklahoma)
L.J. Cryer (15.5 PPG)
Emanuel Sharp (12.6 PPG)
J’Wan Roberts (9.5 PPG)
Ja’Vier Francis (6.0 PPG)
Previous ranking: 3
After entering 2023-24 ranked No. 1, Bill Self had one of his most disappointing seasons since taking over in Lawrence. So far, he has recruited the transfer portal with that in mind, already reeling in AJ Storr (Wisconsin), Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State) and Riley Kugel (Florida). And he’s not done yet. The key will be Hunter Dickinson. He has the ability to come back for another year; should he do so, the Jayhawks will be a lock for preseason No. 1.
Projected starting lineup
Dajuan Harris Jr. (8.5 PPG)
Zeke Mayo (18.8 PPG at South Dakota State)
AJ Storr (16.8 PPG at Wisconsin)
K.J. Adams Jr. (12.6 PPG)
Flory Bidunga (No. 17 in ESPN 100)
No. 7 Iowa State upsets No. 1 Houston in a blowout for the Big 12 championship.
Previous ranking: 5
T.J. Otzelberger produced another exceptional season in Ames, winning the Big 12 tournament and earning a 2-seed in the NCAA tournament. Next season’s Cyclones might be even better. Last season’s top four scorers are all set to return, including the backcourt of Tamin Lipsey, Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert. Otzelberger has also been busy on the recruiting trail, landing four transfers — led by former Saint Mary’s forward Joshua Jefferson.
Projected starting lineup
Tamin Lipsey (12.4 PPG)
Curtis Jones (11.0 PPG)
Keshon Gilbert (13.7 PPG)
Milan Momcilovic (10.9 PPG)
Dishon Jackson (11.4 PPG at Charlotte)
Previous ranking: 2
Except for Anton Watson, Mark Few could bring back a roster that played like a top-10 or top-15 team for the final two months of the season. Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike form one of the best inside-outside duos in the country, and the Zags will also welcome Pepperdine transfer Michael Ajayi and finally have former Eastern Washington transfer Steele Venters, who missed this past season because of injury, on the court to add perimeter pop.
Projected starting lineup
Ryan Nembhard (12.6 PPG)
Nolan Hickman (14.0 PPG)
Michael Ajayi (17.2 PPG at Pepperdine)
Ben Gregg (9.0 PPG)
Graham Ike (16.5 PPG)
Previous ranking: 10
Once again, Scott Drew will have one of the best perimeter groups in the country: a backcourt made even stronger by the addition of Duke transfer Jeremy Roach. Flanking him will be returning starter Jayden Nunn, top-five recruit V.J. Edgecombe and double-figure scorer Langston Love. Top-25 recruit Robert Wright III is one of the best incoming point guards in the country. Baylor needs to add a frontcourt player, with Tennessee’s Jonas Aidoo on the target list.
Projected starting lineup
Jeremy Roach (14.0 PPG at Duke)
Jayden Nunn (10.5 PPG)
V.J. Edgecombe (No. 3 in ESPN 100)
Langston Love (11.0 PPG)
Josh Ojianwuna (4.9 PPG)
Previous ranking: 12
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Alabama’s perimeter group has been completely overhauled. Aaron Estrada and Rylan Griffen are gone, as is Mark Sears, who is trying his hand in the NBA draft. Arriving are transfers Aden Holloway (Auburn), Chris Youngblood (South Florida) and Houston Mallette (Pepperdine). Latrell Wrightsell Jr. is back, and five-star recruit Derrion Reid enters the fold. The key will be up front: Does Grant Nelson return? Does Jarin Stevenson take the next step? Does Oats land a bona fide starting big?
Projected starting lineup
Aden Holloway (7.3 PPG at Auburn)
Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (8.9 PPG)
Chris Youngblood (15.3 PPG at South Florida)
Derrion Reid (No. 11 in ESPN 100)
Jarin Stevenson (5.4 PPG)
Previous ranking: 1
Duke was a national title contender last season but never quite seemed to put it all together for an extended stretch, and it ultimately fell in the Elite Eight. Jon Scheyer will have two of the best NBA prospects in the country next season in No. 1 recruit Cooper Flagg and projected top-five pick Khaman Maluach, but his roster is going to be a completely revamped. Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster are the only returnees after seven players left via the portal.
Projected starting lineup
Tyrese Proctor (10.5 PPG)
Caleb Foster (7.7 PPG)
Cooper Flagg (No. 1 in ESPN 100)
Maliq Brown (9.5 PPG at Syracuse)
Khaman Maluach (five-star)
Previous ranking: 15
With the likelihood of RJ Davis returning to Chapel Hill for his final season growing in recent days, we’ve slotted him into the Tar Heels’ lineup — and they make a big jump as a result. He would give UNC a preseason first-team All-American and perhaps the Wooden Award favorite. Hubert Davis also needs to add a couple players via the portal with the departures of Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram. But Elliot Cadeau and Seth Trimble are back, and five-star guards Ian Jackson and Drake Powell should make an impact.
Projected starting lineup
Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG)
RJ Davis (21.2 PPG)
Seth Trimble (5.2 PPG)
Ian Jackson (No. 7 in ESPN 100)
Jalen Washington (3.9 PPG)
Previous ranking: 8
It has been a busy offseason thus far for Arizona. Kylan Boswell and Oumar Ballo both entered the transfer portal, and Pelle Larsson entered the NBA draft. Caleb Love and KJ Lewis are testing the waters but would be better suited to a return to Tucson. Tommy Lloyd made a splash in the portal on Wednesday with the addition of Horizon League Player of the Year Trey Townsend. Another scorer on the perimeter (if Love doesn’t return) is needed if Arizona is to compete early in the Big 12.
Projected starting lineup
Jaden Bradley (7.0 PPG)
KJ Lewis (6.1 PPG)
Carter Bryant (No. 19 in ESPN 100)
Trey Townsend (17.3 PPG at Oakland)<
Motiejus Krivas (5.4 PPG)
Previous ranking: 4
Back-to-back-to-back? Don’t count out Dan Hurley and the Huskies. Right now, though, it’s impossible to put those expectations on their shoulders. Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer are out of eligibility, and Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle are off to the NBA draft. Alex Karaban also announced he’s entering the draft — though he could return to Storrs. Hurley is looking to reload via the portal, but five-star recruit Liam McNeeley is atop the list.
Projected starting lineup
Hassan Diarra (6.1 PPG)
Solomon Ball (3.5 PPG)
Jayden Ross (0.7 PPG)
Jaylin Stewart (2.6 PPG)
Samson Johnson (5.4 PPG)
Johni Broome dishes a dime to Chad Baker-Mazara for a Tigers flush.
Previous ranking: 18
Auburn rose in the rankings with the return of first-team All-SEC selection Johni Broome up front; he gives Bruce Pearl a legitimate preseason All-American candidate. Furman transfer JP Pegues should get the reins at the point guard spot, with Denver Jones and Chad Baker-Mazara next to him. Pearl could use a bit more up front, though. Chaney Johnson and Chris Moore both saw some starts last season, while Dylan Cardwell would provide a different dimension with his size.
Projected starting lineup
JP Pegues (18.4 PPG at Furman)
Denver Jones (9.1 PPG)
Chad Baker-Mazara (10.0 PPG)
Chaney Johnson (4.7 PPG)
Johni Broome (16.5 PPG)
Previous ranking: 6
The post-Zach Edey era in West Lafayette has officially begun, but don’t expect Matt Painter’s team to completely fall out of the national discussion. The Boilermakers will still return one of the best backcourts in the country in Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn is ready for a bigger role in the frontcourt. The key will be whether Smith and Loyer can take the jump from complementary to go-to players, and which reserve or freshman breaks out. A good bet would be Camden Heide.
Projected starting lineup
Braden Smith (12.2 PPG)
Fletcher Loyer (10.6 PPG)
Camden Heide (3.4 PPG)
Trey Kaufman-Renn (6.4 PPG)
Caleb Furst (2.2 PPG)
Previous ranking: 13
Florida struck gold in the portal last spring and has already reeled in three transfers this year. The Gators also have All-American candidate and one of the nation’s top scorers Walter Clayton Jr. at the guard position, and Will Richard is a double-figure scorer. Former Florida Atlantic star Alijah Martin will slot in seamlessly. Todd Golden should have plenty of frontcourt options too: Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and a hopefully healthy Micah Handlogten are back, while Sam Alexis (Chattanooga) and Rueben Chinyelu (Washington State) have arrived.
.@martin_alijah to the 352 🐊
Welcome to Gator Nation 🟠🔵
🗞️ https://t.co/3ESVU8VGyY pic.twitter.com/NydzRwJ3b1
Projected starting lineup
Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 PPG)
Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG at Florida Atlantic)
Will Richard (11.4 PPG)
Alex Condon (7.7 PPG)
Reuben Chinyelu (4.7 PPG at Washington State)
Previous ranking: 11
Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro have played their final game in a Marquette uniform, but Shaka Smart brings back three starters in Kam Jones, David Joplin and Stevie Mitchell, plus key rotation players Chase Ross, Ben Gold and a potentially healthy Sean Jones. This is a team that has earned 2-seeds in each of the past two NCAA tournaments. The Golden Eagles shouldn’t fade away quickly.
Projected starting lineup
Sean Jones (5.8 PPG)
Kam Jones (17.2 PPG)
Stevie Mitchell (8.8 PPG)
David Joplin (10.8 PPG)
Ben Gold (5.0 PPG)
Previous ranking: 19
Mick Cronin’s worst season in 15 years is unlikely to be repeated. Especially because the Bruins have already landed five transfers — at least two could start right off the bat, with USC’s Kobe Johnson providing two-way ability and Oregon State’s Tyler Bilodeau an inside-outside threat. That’s on top of three returning starters, and intriguing international prospects Aday Mara and Berke Buyuktuncel. How all the pieces fit might be the biggest question.
Projected starting lineup
Dylan Andrews (12.9 PPG)
Sebastian Mack (12.1 PPG)
Kobe Johnson (10.9 PPG at USC)
Lazar Stefanovic (11.5 PPG)
Tyler Bilodeau (14.3 PPG at Oregon State)
Previous ranking: Unranked
The winners of the first wave of portal season. The Hoosiers landed Arizona transfer Oumar Ballo, the top-ranked player in the portal, as well as top-15 guard transfers Myles Rice (Washington State) and Kanaan Carlyle (Stanford). Three starters also return: Malik Reneau, Mackenzie Mgbako and Trey Galloway. Without adding more shooting, though, Indiana could run into some of the same offensive issues as last season.
Hoosier Nation, c’est parti.
🔴⚪️ pic.twitter.com/veYgjwSXuN
Projected starting lineup
Myles Rice (14.8 PPG at Washington State)
Kanaan Carlyle (11.5 PPG at Stanford)
Mackenzie Mgbako (12.2 PPG)
Malik Reneau (15.4 PPG)
Oumar Ballo (14.2 PPG at Arizona)
Previous ranking: Next in line
Texas is another school that has had a love-hate relationship with the transfer portal and offseason. Out the door went Tyrese Hunter and Dillon Mitchell, while top-50 recruit Cam Scott decommitted. Incoming are Tramon Mark (Arkansas), Jayson Kent (Indiana State), Julian Larry (Indiana State) and Jordan Pope (Oregon State). At least three could start. Rodney Terry also landed top-five prospect Tre Johnson, one of the elite scorers in the 2024 high school class. Whether Kadin Shedrick can play with some consistency will be key.
Projected starting lineup
Jordan Pope (17.6 PPG at Oregon State)
Tramon Mark (16.2 PPG at Arkansas)
Tre Johnson (No. 5 in ESPN 100)
Jayson Kent (13.5 PPG at Indiana State)
Kadin Shedrick (7.7 PPG)
Previous ranking: Unranked
A&M struggled in the first half of the season for the second straight campaign before surging late and making the NCAA tournament. With further continuity entering next season, perhaps the Aggies get off to a stronger start. Wade Taylor IV should be back to lead the offense, while Manny Obaseki, Jace Carter, Solomon Washington and Andersson Garcia also return. Buzz Williams landed an intriguing big man earlier in the week: Minnesota transfer Pharrel Payne.
Projected starting lineup
Wade Taylor IV (19.1 PPG)
Manny Obaseki (7.0 PPG)
Solomon Washington (7.4 PPG)
Andersson Garcia (6.0 PPG)
Pharrel Payne (10.0 PPG at Minnesota)
Previous ranking: 17
Looking to shake off a disappointing 2023-24, Miami was busy early in the portal, landing frontcourt players Lynn Kidd (Virginia Tech) and Brandon Johnson (East Carolina) before the NCAA tournament even ended. They add to the returning Nijel Pack, Wooga Poplar and Matthew Cleveland. But the majority of the excitement centers around Jalil Bethea, the program’s highest-ranked recruit in nearly 40 years.
Projected starting lineup
Nijel Pack (13.3 PPG)
Jalil Bethea (No. 10 in ESPN 100)
Wooga Poplar (13.1 PPG)
Matthew Cleveland (13.7 PPG)
Lynn Kidd (13.2 PPG at Virginia Tech)
Previous ranking: 9
Dalton Knecht is gone and with him goes Rick Barnes’ best offense in several years. But if the more up-tempo, 3-point-heavy offensive system remains in Knoxville, there should be plenty of optimism. Zakai Zeigler is one of the best point guards in the country, and Jordan Gainey and Jahmai Mashack are experienced on the perimeter. Hofstra transfer Darlinstone Dubar should help replace Knecht. Also keep an eye on rising sophomore Cameron Carr.
Projected starting lineup
Zakai Zeigler (11.8 PPG)
Jordan Gainey (6.8 PPG)
Jahmai Mashack (4.5 PPG)
Darlinstone Dubar (17.8 PPG at Hofstra)
J.P. Estrella (1.6 PPG)
Julian Reese grabs the rebound off the backboard and slams in a dunk.
Previous ranking: 20
Another team that underachieved relative to preseason expectations last year, Kevin Willard will trot out a revamped starting group in November. Julian Reese is returning, and former top-50 recruit DeShawn Harris-Smith will be expected to improve. Then there’s the newcomers. Top-10 prospect Derik Queen could be the fulcrum of the offense, while Ja’Kobi Gillespie (Belmont), Selton Miguel (South Florida) and Rodney Rice (Virginia Tech) could push for starting jobs.
Projected starting lineup
Ja’Kobi Gillespie (17.2 PPG at Belmont)
DeShawn Harris-Smith (7.3 PPG)
Selton Miguel (14.7 PPG at South Florida)
Julian Reese (13.7 PPG)
Derik Queen (No. 8 in ESPN 100)
Previous ranking: 25
Cincinnati has won 45 games in two seasons but has yet to reach the NCAA tournament in Wes Miller’s three seasons at the helm. That could change in 2024-25, as the Bearcats are bringing back five of their top seven scorers. Miller also welcomes a pair of ESPN 100 prospects and two transfers. The biggest impact could come from Bradley transfer guard Connor Hickman, whose shooting should help the team that ranked dead last in the Big 12 in 3s.
Projected starting lineup
Day Day Thomas (10.4 PPG)
Connor Hickman (14.5 PPG at Bradley)
Dan Skillings Jr. (12.9 PPG)
Simas Lukosius (11.8 PPG)
Aziz Bandaogo (6.6 PPG)
Previous ranking: Unranked
This ranking could look incredibly low by the end of 2024-25. Sean Miller’s team took a major step back from his first year back with the Musketeers, but he overhauled the perimeter group and added plenty of shooting by way of transfers Ryan Conwell (Indiana State), Dante Maddox Jr. (Toledo) and Marcus Foster (Furman). That’s in addition to the return of Dayvion McKnight. Up front, can Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter come back healthy? If they do, look out.
Projected starting lineup
Dayvion McKnight (12.4 PPG)
Dante Maddox Jr. (15.6 PPG at Toledo)
Ryan Conwell (16.6 PPG at Indiana State)
Jerome Hunter (7.8 PPG in 2022-23)
Zach Freemantle (15.2 PPG in 2022-23)
Previous ranking: Next in line
Ohio State went 8-3 after Jake Diebler took over for Chris Holtmann and will hope some of that momentum carries over to 2024-25. The Buckeyes lost a lot to the portal but landed their fair share of transfers as well. Meechie Johnson (South Carolina), Micah Parrish (San Diego State) and Aaron Bradshaw (Kentucky) could all push for starting jobs immediately, joining returning point guard Bruce Thornton. Diebler could add another frontcourt player as well.
Projected starting lineup
Bruce Thornton (15.7 PPG)
Meechie Johnson (14.1 PPG at South Carolina)
Evan Mahaffey (4.3 PPG)
Micah Parrish (9.3 PPG at San Diego State)
Aaron Bradshaw (4.9 PPG at Kentucky)
Check out some highlight plays from Rutgers commit Dylan Harper, the No. 2 player in ESPN’s 2024 rankings.
Previous ranking: 21
Rutgers will have two of the top six players in ESPN’s early 2025 mock draft in Airious “Ace” Bailey and Dylan Harper, the Nos. 2 and 3 players in the ESPN 100, respectively. Both should have a transformative impact next season, but coach Steve Pikiell will have to surround Bailey and Harper with some veterans. The return of Jeremiah Williams is a boost, and Pikiell has landed three transfers — Tyson Acuff (Eastern Michigan), Zach Martini (Princeton), Jordan Derkack (Merrimack) — from the portal.
Projected starting lineup
Dylan Harper (No. 4 in ESPN 100)
Jeremiah Williams (12.2 PPG)
Tyson Acuff (21.7 PPG at Eastern Michigan)
Ace Bailey (No. 2 in ESPN 100)
Zach Martini (8.4 PPG at Princeton)
Dropped out: BYU Cougars (No. 14), Saint Mary’s Gaels (No. 16), Dayton Flyers (No. 22), Kentucky Wildcats (No. 23), Wisconsin Badgers (No. 24)
Next in line
New Mexico Lobos
Providence Friars
Oregon Ducks
San Diego State Aztecs
Saint Louis Billikens