Everything to know for Week 14’s weekend games
Credit to Author: NFL Nation| Date: Sun, 10 Dec 2023 04:16:44 EST
Dan Orlovsky and Harry Douglas explain why Sunday is a must-win for Dallas and how the team should play to achieve victory. (1:26)
The Week 14 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 14 slate, including the Rams’ road trip to Baltimore, Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen and an NFC East battle between the Cowboys and Eagles. It all culminates with two “Monday Night Football” matchups: Titans-Dolphins (ESPN) and Packers-Giants (ABC/ESPN+). Game times are Sunday unless noted, and all playoff chance percentages are via FPI.
Jump to a matchup:
LAR-BAL | DET-CHI | JAX-CLE
TB-ATL | CAR-NO | HOU-NYJ
IND-CIN | MIN-LV | SEA-SF
BUF-KC | DEN-LAC | PHI-DAL
TEN-MIA | GB-NYG
Thursday: NE 21, PIT 18
Bye: ARI, WSH
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: BAL -7 (40.5)
Storyline to watch: With defensive tackle Justin Madubuike dominating the middle and Jadeveon Clowney crashing the edge, the Ravens lead the NFL in sacks with 47, which is five more than any other team. But it will be a challenge to get pressure on Rams QB Matthew Stafford, who has been sacked 20 times — the fourth fewest among quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks. — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: The Ravens will run for two touchdowns, enabling them to match the franchise record for rushing TDs in a season (24 in 2020). The Ravens, at 22 rushing touchdowns, are tied with the Dolphins for the most in the NFL, and Baltimore has scored at least one rushing TD in six straight games. The Rams have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns, which is tied for 12th most. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense (15.6 points per game). Baltimore has led the league in scoring defense twice in franchise history: 2006 (lost in the divisional round) and 2000 (won the Super Bowl).
Matchup X factor: Rams wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. This will be a challenging game for them, as the Ravens are the second-most difficult team to get open against (after the Jets), according to ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics. But Kupp and Nacua are talented, and this game could swing on this strength-on-strength matchup. — Walder
What’s at stake: If the Rams can beat the Ravens on Sunday, their playoff chances go to 69%, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. But a loss drops them to 35%. Baltimore, meanwhile, is more concerned with the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Ravens’ chances to earn a bye would be either 38% (win) or 18% (loss), depending on the outcome of the game. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Nacua’s 1,029 receiving yards are the fourth most through a player’s first 12 games since the 1970 merger. Kupp, on the other hand, has had fewer than 50 receiving yards in six consecutive games. Against the Ravens’ stout secondary, which allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, it’s crucial to have realistic expectations for both players. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Rams are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) in their past three games as an underdog. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Ravens 28, Rams 21
Walder’s pick: Rams 27, Ravens 24
FPI prediction: BAL, 74.2% (by an average of 8.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rams sign Crosby … Tucker no longer most accurate kicker, but Baltimore still confident … Nacua expected to play through AC joint sprain
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DET -3.5 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: The second meeting between these NFC North rivals comes three weeks after Chicago had a 12-point lead with 4:15 to play and a 98.6% chance to beat Detroit on the road before subsequently losing 31-26. A Week 14 victory would give the Lions their first 10-win season since 2014, while the Bears are looking for back-to-back wins for the first time under coach Matt Eberflus. Bears QB Justin Fields is the NFL’s only quarterback to have three games of 100 yards rushing against a single opponent since 1950, and he has done it in three straight against Detroit. — Courtney Cronin
Bold prediction: Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will log his second consecutive game of at least 100 receiving yards. LaPorta had a season-best 140 yards with a touchdown at New Orleans on Dec. 3 and continues to develop trust with QB Jared Goff. The second-round pick will make the most of his targets in Chicago as more opportunities keep coming his way. The Bears give up an average of 46.7 yards per game to tight ends (15th in the NFL). — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Fields has had one passing touchdown and no rushing touchdowns in his past three games played; six straight games without a rushing TD is tied for the longest drought of his career (2021 Weeks 2-7).
Matchup X factor: The Lions’ pass rush. Over the past four weeks, they rank 30th in pass rush win rate, and even Aidan Hutchinson has been below average in the category for a starting edge rusher. Fields has a weakness of taking sacks (29), but Detroit is going to need some pressure to take advantage. — Walder
What’s at stake: These teams are interested in two different things. Detroit is seeking a division title, which could rise to a 95% chance with a win (or drop to 80% in a loss). And Chicago is watching the draft order. The Bears are currently projected to have two top-eight picks. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Fantasy managers should tread lightly when it comes to Goff, who has averaged only 16.1 fantasy points a game over the past three games. Over the past four games, the Bears’ defense has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 1-8 ATS in their past nine games following a bye week. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Bears 17
Walder’s pick: Lions 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: DET, 61.8% (by an average of 4 points)
Matchup must-reads: LaPorta helping Lions get back on track … Fields says he is not worried about future with Bears … Goff: Lions must ‘turn our urgency up’ down stretch
Eric Karabell explains how Justin Fields has been a fantasy boost for DJ Moore ahead of the Bears’ game vs. the Lions.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CLE -3 (30.5)
Storyline to watch: Jaguars coach Doug Pederson will face off against his former defensive coordinator, current Cleveland DC Jim Schwartz. The two won a Super Bowl together in Philadelphia in 2017 and know plenty about each other. And Schwartz might be scheming against backup Jacksonville quarterback C.J. Beathard with Trevor Lawrence‘s status up in the air (high ankle sprain). — Jake Trotter
Bold prediction: The Browns’ Myles Garrett and the Jaguars’ Josh Allen will combine for seven sacks. Garrett (13 sacks) and Allen (13.5) are battling Khalil Mack, T.J. Watt and Danielle Hunter for the sack title and will be chasing quarterbacks who have limited mobility, provided 38-year-old Joe Flacco starts instead of rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. If Lawrence plays, it’s likely he won’t be moving around as well as he had been since coming back from a sprained left knee. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: If Flacco starts and wins, this would be the first time the Browns have had four starting QBs win a game in a season. The last team to do this was the 2015 Texans.
Matchup X factor: Jaguars wide receiver Parker Washington. Despite barely playing all season, Washington managed six receptions for 61 yards Monday after Christian Kirk suffered a groin injury. Is that a sign of things to come? The Jaguars could use the help with Kirk out. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Jaguars would have an 88% chance to win the AFC South if they win this game — but a loss drops them to 65% in the division and shrinks their odds to land the No. 1 seed to 2%. The Browns can make a playoff push with a win, seeing their odds jump to 82%. But a loss puts them right around 50-50. Read more.
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What to know for fantasy: Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones will have difficulty overcoming the Browns’ defense this week, especially without Lawrence. Cleveland’s defense allows the third-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Browns’ receivers are better positioned to succeed against a Jaguars defense that gives up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 games following a loss. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Browns 22, Jaguars 17
Walder’s pick: Browns 20, Jaguars 12
FPI prediction: CLE, 51.1% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: QB Lawrence: Jaguars had cart available; I refused it … Cooper suffers concussion in loss to Rams … Flacco has gas in the tank, but do banged-up Browns?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: ATL -1.5 (39.5)
Storyline to watch: Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans, who once again topped 1,000 yards, has been a problem for Atlanta over the years — including six catches for 82 yards and a touchdown earlier this season. With Falcons cornerbacks A.J. Terrell (concussion protocol) and Jeff Okudah (ankle) both dealing with injuries, the matchup on defense could be something to watch. — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield will throw for 300-plus yards for the second time this season. It would be the first time that Atlanta has given up 300 passing yards this season. Between the injuries to the Falcons’ secondary and Mayfield and Evans getting comfortable with their downfield connection — Evans is averaging 16.6 yards per completion — the two could have another big day. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is seeking his fifth game with 100 scrimmage yards, which would be tied for the most by a Falcons rookie in franchise history (Julio Jones and Tyler Allgeier).
Matchup X factor: Falcons defensive tackle David Onyemata. He has cooled off after a hot start to the season, but Sunday is a big opportunity. All three members of the interior of the Bucs offensive line — Aaron Stinnie, Robert Hainsey and Cody Mauch — are below average in pass block win rate at their position. — Walder
What’s at stake: This is a big one for playoff chances. Let’s start with Tampa Bay: A win gives the Bucs a 39% chance to win the NFC South and a 44% chance to make the playoffs, but a loss puts them at 3% and 6%, respectively. Atlanta has even bigger swings in play. The Falcons would be 81% to win the division and 83% to make the postseason in a win but 34% and 38%, respectively, with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Buccaneers | Falcons
What to know for fantasy: If you’re looking for a tight end streamer, don’t overlook Cade Otton despite his zero targets and zero fantasy points against the Panthers last week. In this week’s game, he will face a Falcons defense that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS on the road despite four straight outright losses. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 21
Walder’s pick: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 16
FPI prediction: TB, 51.1% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bucs preparing for pivotal game at Falcons … The Falcons’ defense has improved, offense lacks ‘consistency’ … Evans posts 10th straight 1,000-yard season
Eric Moody gets into the numbers behind Mike Evans’ stellar fantasy season.
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: NO -5 (37.5)
Storyline to watch: Saints QBs Derek Carr and Taysom Hill are both on the injury report this week, with Carr in concussion protocol and Hill dealing with foot/hand injuries. Hill, who had 8.3 yards per carry in the first contest against the Panthers and has six total touchdowns (passing/receiving/rushing), would be a major loss for a team that has been erratic at best when it comes to rushing the ball and scoring in the red zone. — Katherine Terrell
Bold prediction: Panthers QB Bryce Young will have two touchdown passes to go with a second straight 100-yard rushing effort from Chuba Hubbard. It won’t be enough for a win, but the Saints’ defense ranks 30th in sacks and 24th against the run, which should help spark the Carolina offense. — David Newton
Stat to know: The Saints have lost three straight and five of the past seven. With a loss, they would be tied for their second-longest losing streak in the past 15 seasons, behind a five-game streak from Weeks 9 to 13 in 2021.
Matchup X factor: Saints quarterback Jameis Winston. He’s the ultimate wild card. The Saints’ chances will swing on his performance — which can feature improbable deep shots, costly turnovers or both. — Walder
What’s at stake: Carolina is eliminated and does not have a first-round pick, so the focus goes to New Orleans here. The Saints have a 34% chance to make the playoffs if they win, but losing to the Panthers drops that to 11%. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Hubbard has had 18 or more touches, accumulated 90 or more total yards and scored 20 or more fantasy points in two straight games. The Panthers are committed to running the football to take the pressure off Young. A solid flex option, Hubbard is projected to receive high volume against the Saints. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints are 0-5 ATS at home, making them the only team yet to cover at home. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Saints 24, Panthers 19
Walder’s pick: Saints 23, Panthers 13
FPI prediction: NO, 71% (by an average of 7.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: 1-11 Panthers frustrated with losing … Carr in protocol, also being checked for rib injury … Saints know only way to silence boos, keep jobs is to win
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: HOU -4.5 (32.5)
Storyline to watch: It’s a No. 2-vs.-No. 2 quarterback matchup: The Jets’ Zach Wilson, drafted No. 2 overall in 2021, faces C.J. Stroud, No. 2 overall in 2023. Their careers are going in opposite directions, though. Stroud has almost as many touchdown passes as Wilson (20 to 21) even though he has started significantly fewer games (12 to 32). Wilson returns to the lineup after a two-game benching. — Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: Stroud will throw for less than 200 yards. Since Week 9, Stroud has three touchdown passes and no interceptions on throws that take four seconds or longer to get out. But the Jets’ defense has thrived when quarterbacks hold the ball. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts threw two interceptions each on passes that took 2.5 seconds or longer against the Jets. And Stroud is without rookie receiver Tank Dell (fibula), who has 709 yards. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: Stroud leads the NFL with 3,540 passing yards. Three rookies have led the NFL in passing yards in a season since 1933, when individual player stats were first tracked — Davey O’Brien (1939), Sammy Baugh (1937) and Harry Newman (1933).
Matchup X factor: Jets quarterback Wilson. The team has torpedoed its own chances of staying in the playoff race until Aaron Rodgers returns through its quarterback decisions. Wilson surely gives the Jets a better chance to win than Tim Boyle did, but the team needs more than it got from Wilson before he was benched. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Texans can make an AFC South push with a win, increasing their chances to 20% (6% with a loss). And their playoff chances in general can jump to 79% if they beat the Jets — or fall to 52% if they lose. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Nico Collins accounted for 69% of Stroud’s passing yards against the Broncos last week and finished with 12 targets. The Texans receiver ranks 10th in the league with 991 receiving yards. Managers should trust Collins as a volume-based WR2, despite the Jets giving up the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. In the three games in which he has had 10 or more targets, he has scored 14 or more fantasy points. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 5-0-1 in the Jets’ past six games. And three straight Texans games have gone under the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Texans 24, Jets 10
Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Jets 16
FPI prediction: HOU, 65.8% (by an average of 5.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Stingley turning into player Texans were hoping for … Why the Jets’ season has cratered since their big Eagles upset … Jets returning to Wilson as QB1 against Texans
C.J. Stroud joins Pat McAfee to detail how he and the Texans have been striving to improve this season.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: IND -1 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: Sunday’s game will be an Apple Cup reunion between two backup quarterbacks. The Bengals’ Jake Browning, a Washington alum, is going up against the Colts’ Gardner Minshew, who played at Washington State. Browning won the AFC’s Offensive Player of the Week award last week, while Minshew is 14th in QBR this season in eight starts in place of the injured Anthony Richardson. — Ben Baby
Bold prediction: Look for a third consecutive 100-yard performance from Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr. He is in the midst of a career year and is on track to potentially land a massive contract extension before his impending free agency in the offseason. Pittman has a combined 21 catches for 212 yards in his previous two games and faces a favorable matchup against a struggling Cincinnati pass defense that is allowing 254.3 yards per game (27th in the NFL). — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: The Bengals allow 4.8 yards per rush (31st in the NFL) and rank 26th in run stop win rate this season. The Colts, meanwhile, average 3.4 yards per rush since Week 9, ranked 31st.
Matchup X factor: Browning. If he can play like he did Monday against the Jaguars — when he recorded an 84 QBR — Browning could suddenly lift the Bengals into serious playoff contention again. — Walder
What’s at stake: Two AFC teams on the playoff bubble have a lot to play for Sunday. The Colts’ chances of making it go to 74% in a win but slide to 40% in a loss. The Bengals’ make chances sit at 20% in a win, but a loss puts them at just 3%. Read more.
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What to know for fantasy: You can continue to rely on Minshew as a streamer against the Bengals. He’s available in a high percentage of ESPN leagues and is throwing to an excellent trio of receivers in Pittman, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. Minshew scored a season-high 18.6 fantasy points against the Titans last week, and the Bengals give up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Colts have covered four straight games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 21, Bengals 20
Walder’s pick: Bengals 23, Colts 20
FPI prediction: CIN, 53.5% (by an average of 1.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Pierce hoping to build momentum … Colts’ Reggie Wayne evolving as coach … Browning thrills in Monday night win
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: MIN -3 (40.5)
Storyline to watch: In recent cornerback news, the Raiders have waived Marcus Peters, signed Jack Jones and designated Brandon Facyson, who suffered a shin injury in training camp, to return from IR. The Raiders’ reimagined CB room and their No. 13-ranked pass defense will be tested mightily by the return of Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year who is on track to play for the first time since Oct. 8 because of a hamstring issue. — Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: Raiders running back Josh Jacobs will rush for 60 yards (or less) despite his increased productivity since interim coach Antonio Pierce replaced the fired Josh McDaniels. Jacobs has averaged 90.8 rushing yards per game under Pierce, second in the NFL over that stretch. But the Vikings’ rush defense righted itself after allowing 175 yards to the Eagles’ D’Andre Swift in Week 2. Since then, the highest individual rushing total against the Vikings was 65 yards from the Bears’ D’Onta Foreman in Week 6, who needed 15 carries to do it. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Raiders receiver Davante Adams has had four straight games with a touchdown reception against the Vikings, one shy of matching Greg Jennings (five straight from 2009 to 2011) for the longest streak against Minnesota since the 1970 merger.
Matchup X factor: Jefferson. If he’s back to full strength, that will be a huge lift to the Vikings’ offense as the team makes a playoff push. With Jefferson in the lineup, Minnesota should have a sizable advantage over the Raiders. — Walder
What’s at stake: A Minnesota win means a 60% chance to make the playoffs, but this game could drop the Vikings to 32% if they lose. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: QB Joshua Dobbs has thrown five interceptions and also has a fumble in the Vikings’ past two games, and the Raiders’ defense allows the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. It would be wise for the Vikings to rely heavily on Alexander Mattison in the running game. In terms of fantasy points per game, the Raiders allow the ninth-most to running backs. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 9-3 in Raiders games (8-2 in the past 10, and 4-1 in the past five). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Vikings 23, Raiders 20
Walder’s pick: Vikings 27, Raiders 14
FPI prediction: MIN, 63.2% (by an average of 4.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings to start Dobbs vs. Raiders despite turnovers … Meyers’ consistency makes him ‘sneaky’ option for Raiders … How adopting a college defense has fueled Vikings’ turnaround … Raiders hoping for late-season push reminiscent of 2021
Field Yates breaks down why Josh Dobbs’ matchup against the Raiders should concern fantasy managers.
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SF -10.5 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: This is the second meeting between these two teams in 18 days. The Niners are riding a four-game winning streak, closing in on the NFC West crown and in striking distance of the No. 1 seed. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have lost three in a row amid an exceedingly difficult stretch of games. Seattle should be a little healthier than the last time these teams met, and the Seahawks enjoy a rest advantage in this one. Will it be enough to close the 18-point gap that separated these teams on Thanksgiving? Seattle needs it to be if it’s going to stay in the NFC playoff picture, while for the Niners, a win paired with a Minnesota or Green Bay loss would punch San Francisco’s postseason ticket. — Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction: The Seahawks won’t lose by more than 13 points. And yes, that qualifies as bold given how lopsided this rivalry has become. Seattle won 17 of 21 matchups from 2012 to 2021, but the tables have turned in a big way with San Francisco winning four straight by a combined score of 120-56. The Seahawks have a few things going for them in this meeting that they didn’t have in their 31-13 loss to the 49ers on Thanksgiving. In addition to being well-rested coming off a mini-bye, they’ve had a long week to prepare for a 49ers offense that mentally strains defenses with all of its pre-snap motion, and it appears they won’t have to face defensive lineman Arik Armstead because of his foot injury. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The 49ers have won 10 straight divisional games, which is the longest active win streak (the next highest is four by the Falcons and Eagles). This is the 49ers second-longest divisional win streak since 1970 (12 straight from 1997 to ’98).
Matchup X factor: The Seahawks’ pass defense. There isn’t one player to pick here because that’s the problem with the 49ers’ offense; they can attack you in so many different ways. From Riq Woolen to Devon Witherspoon to Bobby Wagner to Quandre Diggs — they’re all going to have to have their A-game to stop this vicious 49ers passing offense. — Walder
What’s at stake: Seattle needs a win to keep its playoff bid strong. The Seahawks would have a 52% chance to make the playoffs if they can beat their division rival, but those odds suddenly become 20% in a loss. The 49ers, meanwhile, are more concerned with the No. 1 seed in the conference. Win, and they have a 48% chance. Lose, and it’s 15%. Read more.
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What to know for fantasy: QB Brock Purdy has scored 23 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. It’s a great setup for Purdy and all the San Francisco pass-catchers, but running back Christian McCaffrey‘s matchup is particularly appealing. Seattle’s defense gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 52-34-2 ATS as underdogs under Pete Carroll (.605). Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 35, Seahawks 19
Walder’s pick: 49ers 30, Seahawks 24
FPI prediction: SF, 78.1% (by an average of 10.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Smith finding success with more rhythm … Greenlaw, Eagles security head exchange apologies … Adams stands by intent in spat with reporters … Samuel backs up big words with big plays in 49ers romp
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: KC -1.5 (48.5)
Storyline to watch: The Bills have beaten the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in the regular season in each of the past two seasons in large part because Buffalo QB Josh Allen (six touchdowns, zero interceptions) has outplayed Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (four TDs, four INTs). The Chiefs had been playing well defensively but had their two worst games on that side of the ball in the past two weeks, casting doubt on whether they can prevent Allen from having another big game this time around. — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Both the Chiefs and Bills are winless this season when allowing more than 20 points, but that will change Sunday. The Bills have scored 30-plus points in their past two games and allowed 24 or more in three of their past four. Only once in the five meetings between Mahomes and Allen has one of the teams not scored at least 20 points (17 by the Bills in Week 6 of 2020). — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Bills receiver Stefon Diggs needs 31 receiving yards for 1,000 on the season, which would make him the third Buffalo player with four seasons of 1,000 receiving yards (Andre Reed and Eric Moulds) and the first to do it consecutively.
Matchup X factor: Chiefs cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed. Truthfully, the Bills have the better offense — and passing offense — in this crucial contest. The Chiefs’ corners will have to slow down the Buffalo attack to give Kansas City’s struggling offense a shot to keep up. — Walder
What’s at stake: Buffalo has to find a way to win this one. It would give the Bills a 33% chance to still make the playoffs. But a loss puts them in real trouble, dropping their chances to 7%. The Chiefs are looking good in the AFC West no matter the outcome, but their chances to earn a playoff bye can jump to 36% (win) or fall to 9% (loss). Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Over his past four games, Mahomes has thrown for 870 passing yards. Over that period, he has averaged 16.6 fantasy points. Receiver Rashee Rice can be trusted as a flex option with upside despite the Chiefs’ poor passing game. Since Week 5, he has averaged 5.7 targets and 13.5 fantasy points. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 6-0 outright after a bye under coach Sean McDermott (2-2-2 ATS). The Bills are 6-12-2 ATS with extra rest under McDermott. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 29, Chiefs 24
Walder’s pick: Bills 28, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 54.5% (by an average of 1.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Joe Brady ‘brings a lot of juice’ to Bills offense … Taylor Swift opens up about Kelce romance timeline
Dan Orlovsky and Kimberley A. Martin discuss if the Chiefs are still the team to beat in the AFC.
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LAC -3 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: The Chargers are riding perhaps their best two-game defensive stretch of coach Brandon Staley’s three-year tenure. They held the Ravens, who scored 30 points in five straight games before their matchup, to 20. Sunday’s 6-0 win over the Patriots was the first shutout of the Staley era. Next up is Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson, who threw three interceptions last week but has a touchdown pass in 16 straight games dating to last season. — Kris Rhim
Bold prediction: If Broncos coach Sean Payton will put Wilson in more play-action situations, the QB will have his third game of the season with three passing touchdowns. The Chargers have surrendered 300-yard passing games to Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Mahomes, Goff and Jordan Love this season, and those quarterbacks threw 14 touchdowns in those five games combined. The Broncos are not very good at the dropback pass game, but getting Wilson on the move with some play-action could help. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Chargers are seeking their fourth straight home win against the Broncos dating to 2020. A victory would mark the team’s second-longest home win streak against Denver in the rivalry’s history (10 straight from 1963 to 1972).
Matchup X factor: Broncos slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian. The corner, who has been playing more and has two picks on the season, will line up frequently against WR Keenan Allen, who plays in the slot over half the time. Stop Allen and you can severely hinder the Chargers’ offense — but that’s easier said than done. — Walder
What’s at stake: This game might be more about dimming playoff hopes than igniting them. Denver stays in the mix with a win at 27% but plummets to 6% in a loss. And the Chargers cling to a 20% chance if they win but fall to 3% if they lose. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: The Chargers’ defense allows the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the 10th-most to running backs and the third-most to wide receivers. Wilson and the other Broncos skill position players are in a great spot on the road if they can capitalize on this matchup. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Broncos are 6-13-1 ATS in their past 20 road games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 24
Walder’s pick: Chargers 24, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: LAC, 68.6% (by an average of 6.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Surtain-Allen matchup will be the center of DEN-LAC … Chargers’ Staley hints at ‘competition for carries’
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: DAL -3.5 (51.5)
Storyline to watch: First place in the NFC East is on the line when these teams meet, at least temporarily. The Cowboys would move to the top line with a win, but if both teams win their remaining games, the Eagles would claim the division title based on conference record. A Philadelphia win means the division would be all but clinched, but Dallas QB Dak Prescott has won four straight against the Eagles at AT&T Stadium. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Cowboys running back Tony Pollard will have his first multi-touchdown game since the season-opener. Pollard has found the end zone in each of the past three weeks and is facing an Eagles team that ranks 29th in red zone defense and has yielded an average of 162 yards on the ground over the past three games. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has 19 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing touchdowns. He could become the second player all time to have multiple seasons of 20 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns (Cam Newton had two), and he’d be the first to do it in consecutive seasons.
Matchup X factor: Eagles linebacker Shaquille Leonard. Who knows what he’ll be able to do right away, but that’s why he’s an X factor, right? The Eagles could use help after allowing the 49ers’ offense to score 42 points last week, and Leonard could be the answer. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams look solid to make the playoffs, but way more is in play here on Sunday night. Philly can go to 99% to win the division if it wins, but a Dallas win opens the door for the Cowboys (28%). And in terms of a playoff bye, the Eagles go to 75% with a division win here but fall to 35% with a loss. (Dallas would have a 10% chance in a win.) Read more.
What to know for fantasy: This season, Dallas has scored 30 or more points in eight games and ranks fifth in total yards per game. No other defense gives up more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than the Eagles. Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson belong in fantasy starting lineups. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 8-2 ATS as favorites this season, and they are 25-10 ATS as favorites in the past three seasons. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 33, Eagles 30
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 34, Eagles 27
FPI prediction: DAL, 65.3% (by an average of 5.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: How the Eagles must improve ahead of Cowboys rematch … Inside the daily training sessions of Cowboys’ Prescott … Ferguson is Prescott’s new security blanket
Stephen A. Smith explains what the difference is to him when choosing between Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts.
8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: MIA -13 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: Monday night will feature a road team yet to win a game on the road, and a home team yet to lose at home. The Dolphins’ defense leads the league in defensive EPA since cornerback Jalen Ramsey‘s return in Week 8. They have also allowed the third-lowest conversion percentage on third down since Week 8, while the Titans’ offense has converted at the fourth-lowest rate. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Bold prediction: Titans receiver DeAndre Hopkins will have a 100-yard receiving performance. Miami’s pass defense is ninth in the NFL by allowing 203.6 passing yards per game. The Dolphins have allowed three 100-yard receivers in 12 games this season. Hopkins has two 100-yard receiving games this year and will add to that total on Monday. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: Miami running back Raheem Mostert has 16 touchdowns this season, tied for the third-most in Dolphins history (Mark Clayton had 18 in 1984, while Ricky Williams had 17 in 2002). And backfield mate De’Von Achane has nine TDs in six games played this season, and he could become the fifth player since 1932 with 10-plus touchdowns in their first seven games, per the Elias Sports Bureau.
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Matchup X factor: Dolphins edge rusher Bradley Chubb. He quietly ranks fourth in pass rush win rate at edge and will be facing Titans rookie left tackle Jaelyn Duncan, who would rank 69th out of 70 tackles in pass block win rate if he qualified. — Walder
What’s at stake: The biggest thing to watch here? Miami is in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and a win would put the Dolphins at 41%. But losing to the Titans shrinks that to 17%. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill has had five games this season with 150 or more receiving yards, which ties the NFL record for a single season. Hill and Jaylen Waddle face a Titans defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 0-5 outright and ATS in their past five road games (1-5 ATS on the road this season and 0-6 outright). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 31, Titans 19
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 30, Titans 10
FPI prediction: MIA, 85.1% (by an average of 13.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Titans’ Vrabel and Carthon are navigating the season … Dolphins extend Jackson through 2026 season … Titans fire special teams coordinator after punting miscues … Tagovailoa, Hill and the Dolphins’ record-setting offense
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+ | Spread: GB -6.5 (36.5)
Storyline to watch: The Giants are already 0-4 in prime-time games, having been outscored 108-24 in those contests. The Packers are coming off their first prime-time win in three tries this season. They beat the Chiefs 27-19 on Sunday night. And while the Giants are seeking their first three-game win streak since Weeks 4-7 of last season, they have lost eight straight “Monday Night Football” games, the longest active streak in the NFL. — Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: Packers running back AJ Dillon will have a 100-yard rushing game. He has one of those in his career, and it came nearly three years ago. But Dillon has been trending upward lately with a 70-yard game on just nine carries against the Steelers in Week 9 and a 73-yard game last Sunday against the Chiefs. Meanwhile, only four teams have allowed more rushing yards per game than the Giants’ 136.1. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito has seven TD passes and three interceptions this season. All other Giants passers have four TD throws and six picks combined.
Matchup X factor: Giants linebacker Bobby Okereke. He’s having a huge season with four forced fumbles, two interceptions and a better-than-average 0.5 yards per coverage snap allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The Giants are going to need some big defensive plays to hang with the suddenly hot Packers’ offense, and Okereke can provide them. — Walder
What’s at stake: Green Bay can move to 76% to make the playoffs if it wins on Monday. If New York can manage an upset, the Packers drop to 48%. The Giants are no doubt watching draft order, but even if they lose, they still have a 1% chance to pick No. 1 at this point. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Over the past three games, Packers quarterback Jordan Love has averaged 285.7 passing yards and 23.7 fantasy points per game. The Packers’ wide receivers face a Giants defense that gives up the ninth-most fantasy points per game. Make sure you include Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed in your fantasy lineups. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their past five games as a favorite. They are 1-5 ATS in their past six games as a road favorite. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Packers 28, Giants 20
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Giants 17
FPI prediction: GB, 72.8% (by an average of 8.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why Joe Barry’s D has helped spark Packers’ turnaround … Giants need ‘element of patience’ during building year