OPEC sticks to 2024 oil demand growth forecast

LONDON   – OPEC on Thursday stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2023 in 2024, citing signs of a resilient world economy so far this year and expected further demand gains in China.

World oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, compared with growth of 2.44 million bpd in 2023, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report.

Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.

A lifting of pandemic lockdowns in China has helped oil demand rise in 2023. OPEC has consistently forecast stronger demand growth for next year than other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency.

“In 2024, solid global economic growth, amid continued improvements in China, is expected to further boost oil consumption,” OPEC said in the report.

OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, began limiting supplies in 2022 to support prices.

The report also said that demand in the rest of this year and next could take a hit in some parts of the world and trimmed its forecasts for total world demand in the current quarter and the first three months of 2024.

“Looking ahead and despite the usual seasonal rise in heating oil demand, ongoing uncertainty and economic developments in OECD Europe and other areas are expected to impact oil demand in the remainder of 2023 and in 2024,” OPEC said in reference to Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development nations.

The OPEC report also said OPEC oil production rose in September despite pledged OPEC+ supply cuts, driven by increases in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.