NFL preview: Betting public jumping on Jets
Credit to Author: David Purdum| Date: Thu, 10 Aug 2023 11:15:24 EST
Field Yates discusses how Aaron Rodgers’ move to the Jets will impact his fantasy value. (0:34)
This week, veteran Las Vegas bookmaker Adam Pullen glanced over the betting action on Caesars Sportsbook’s odds to win the Super Bowl and tried to come up with an appropriate adjective to describe how much the New York Jets winning it all would cost his book compared to other teams.
Pullen landed on “considerable.”
It’s preseason, and a rush of action is still to come leading up to September’s kickoff, but as of now, the Jets winning the Super Bowl is the worst-case scenario for several sportsbooks around the nation.
The Jets own the worst record in the NFL over the past five seasons at 24-58. They’ve been a drain on bettors, too; no team covered the spread in fewer games than the Jets over the past five seasons. Yet, a chunk of the betting public absolutely loves them this year. At online sportsbook PointsBet, more bets and more money have been staked on the Jets to win the Super Bowl than on any other team. The Jets are tied with the Cincinnati Bengals at 12% of the total amount wagered on DraftKings’ Super Bowl market as of Tuesday. And at the Borgata in Atlantic City, there are more bets on the Jets to win the AFC East than on the other three teams combined.
“We saw it as soon as the rumors started of [Aaron] Rodgers going there, and people couldn’t wait to hand over their money,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at the Borgata, told ESPN. “It really hasn’t let up since.”
We’re back with another year of ESPN Fantasy Football, and it’s not too early to get started. The game is open! Create a league with friends and family now to prep for kickoff this fall. Sign Up Now >>
The increased interest in the Jets highlights Rodgers’ effect on the betting market. On Jan. 30, Caesars opened the Jets at 40-1 to win the Super Bowl. Fifteen other teams had better odds. One month later, rumors of Rodgers’ interest in the Jets began to swirl, and, by mid-March, their odds had shortened all the way to 15-1, where they’d settle after the veteran quarterback was acquired from the Green Bay Packers.
On Tuesday, with Rodgers on the roster, the Jets were 16-1 to win the Super Bowl at Caesars Sportsbook in New Jersey, with only six teams having shorter odds.
“The position that was their biggest issue was quarterback. [Zach] Wilson was thought to be the savior, and that didn’t work out,” Pullen added. “I’m not surprised that people are excited about the Jets.”
As we enter a season in which the betting public likes the Jets — and the Chicago Bears, as you’ll see below — here’s an odds-and-ends look at the action at sportsbooks so far this year.
Ryan Clark backs Justin Fields to make his mark on the NFL this season with the Chicago Bears.
• On Feb. 27, a bettor in New York with Caesars Sportsbook placed a $3,000 bet on the Bears to win the Super Bowl at 100-1. The Bears pose the second-most liability in Caesars’ Super Bowl market.
• Bears quarterback Justin Fields has attracted the most bets and most money wagered on PointsBet’s odds to win the regular-season MVP. Fields, whose odds have moved from 30-1 to 16-1 this offseason, has attracted more bets than Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes combined.
• More bets have been placed on the Bears to win the NFC North than have been placed on any other team in PointsBet’s division odds.
• The Bears’ season win total was 7.5 as of Tuesday. Chicago won just three games last season. It’s the highest increase of a team’s win total from last season at Caesars, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
• Only three teams — the Jets, Ravens and Las Vegas Raiders — pose a bigger liability to Caesars Sportsbook in their Super Bowl odds.
• Top 10 odds to win the Super Bowl (via Caesars Sportsbook; as of Aug. 8)
Take your shot at picking win totals for all 32 teams for a chance to win up to $10,000!
Make Your Picks
Kansas City Chiefs 6-1
Philadelphia Eagles 15-2
San Francisco 49ers 9-1
Buffalo Bills 9-1
Bengals 10-1
Dallas Cowboys 15-1
Jets 16-1
Baltimore Ravens 20-1
Detroit Lions 22-1
Miami Dolphins 25-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25-1
Los Angeles Chargers 25-1
• Teams that have attracted the most money from bettors to win the Super Bowl (via Caesars Sportsbook; as of Aug. 8).
1. Bengals
2. Jets
3. Eagles
4. Chiefs
5. Bills
• On July 11, a bettor in Arizona with Caesars Sportsbook placed a $17,000 bet on the Ravens to win the Super Bowl at 22-1. The bet would pay a net $374,000.
• The largest Super Bowl bet Caesars has reported is $20,000 on the Raiders at 40-1 from a customer in Nevada. The bet would pay a net $800,000.
• More money has been bet on the under on the Raiders’ season win total, which opened at 7.5 but has been down to 7.0, than has been bet on any other team’s under.
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have attracted the fewest bets to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel, where the Bucs are 75-1.
Fewest Super Bowl bets at FanDuel:
1. Buccaneers
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Houston Texans
5. Los Angeles Rams
• The Falcons’ win total, which opened at 7.5 and is now 8.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, has attracted the most money bet on the over of any team.
• A bettor with FanDuel placed a $250 bet on Falcons rooking running back Bijan Robinson to win the regular-season MVP at 200-1 odds.
• More money has been bet on Robinson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year than any other player at FanDuel.
• On Aug. 2 in New Jersey, a bettor with Caesars Sportsbook placed a $1,000 bet on 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy to have the most regular-season passing yards in the league at 100-1. The bet would pay a net $100,000.
• There have been more bets on the Jets (+115) to miss the playoffs than on any other team in BetMGM’s odds to make or miss the playoffs.
(Caesars Sportsbook assistant director of trading Adam Pullen gave his insights on some of his bookmaking and oddsmaking approaches heading into the NFL season.)
• On home-field advantage in the NFL: “Home-field advantage definitely isn’t what it used to be.”
• On Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow‘s injury: “He’s worth at least a touchdown [to the spread], once his status is decided.”
The Bengals have moved from 2.5-point favorites to 1-point favorites in their Week 1 game at Cleveland over the past two weeks since Burrow left practice with a leg injury. Burrow is considered questionable.
• On the growing betting landscape in the U.S.: “As more and more states come on with legalized sports betting, the decisions for operators are going to get bigger and bigger. It’s uncharted territory. You know every Sunday these games are going to produce bigger decisions than they ever have.”
• NFL underdogs covered the spread in 54.4% of games in 2022, the best cover mark of any of the past five seasons. Underdogs have covered the spread in more games than favorites in each of the past five seasons.
Best records against the spread over the past five seasons:
1. Bengals 46-34-1 ATS
2. Packers 46-35-1 ATS
3. Cowboys 46-35-1 ATS
4. Dolphins 45-35-1 ATS
5. Bills 43-33-5 ATS
Worst records against the spread over the past five seasons:
1. Jets 32-49-1 ATS
2. Jaguars 32-48-2 ATS
3. Bears 35-46-1 ATS
4. Falcons 35-46-1 ATS
5. Eagles 35-46-1 ATS
• Last season, 16.4% NFL games, including the playoffs, ended with a margin of victory of 3. That’s twice as much as any other margin of victory. Seven was the second-most common margin of victory, at only 8.2% of games.
Most common margins of victory in NFL games over last five years:
• Points per game dipped to a five-year low of 43.8 points last season. Games over the past five NFL seasons combined have averaged 46.3 points.
Average points per game per season:
2022: 43.8
2021: 46.0
2020: 49.6
2019: 45.6
2018: 46.7
• The average closing over/under total last season was 44.1, a five-year low. The average closing over/under over the past five seasons was 46.0.
Average closing over/under total by season:
2022: 44.1
2021: 46.4
2020: 48.0
2019: 45.1
2018: 46.6
• 55.6% of games last season went under the total, a five-year high for unders; 52% of games have stayed under the total over the past five seasons.
ESPN Stats & Information researchers Mackenzie Kraemer and Nick Mazone contributed to this preview.