Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games
Credit to Author: ESPN Fantasy| Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2023 18:11:17 EST
Atlanta RHP Charlie Morton isn’t going deep into games or avoiding walks, but he is missing bats and earning wins, and that should be enough for fantasy managers. (0:42)
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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
All 30 teams return to action Friday, beginning at 6:05 p.m. ET in the City of Brotherly Love with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the San Diego Padres. The final two teams taking the field after the break are the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, who commence action at 10:10 p.m. ET in the Pacific Northwest.
Getting a jump on the competition is always suggested, but tougher to pull off with many teams waiting until the last minute to announce their second-half pitching plans. However, there are a couple of stream-worthy starters already reported to begin the post-break festivities, beginning with Brayan Bello (37% rostered) who will take the hill for the Boston Red Sox in a rare Friday night game in Wrigley Field. In a year where the average start is a tick over five innings, four of Bello’s past five starts have been seven frames, with the fifth falling one out short. His ERA is 1.82 in that span, with a .87 WHIP. The right-hander’s strikeouts are a bit light with 24 over these 34 2/3 innings, but he’s not walking hitters and he’s keeping the ball in the yard. As Bello continues to refine his repertoire, his strikeout rate should benefit. The Chicago Cubs‘ offense facing right-handers checks in well below average with a generous strikeout rate.
One of the plot lines of the first half was the plethora of rookie pitchers making their debut. The results varied, but there’s nothing like the possibility of a young hurler boosting a fantasy team. One of the repercussions is pitchers like Bello and Cristopher Sanchez (2.7%) don’t get the attention they deserve. Sanchez, in particular, has gone unnoticed in the season of the shiny, new toy. The Phillies righty got his feet wet in 2021, then appeared in 15 games last season, working as a swingman. The 26-year-old southpaw has started five games this season, sporting a sparkling 2.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Granted, he has been helped by Lady Luck, but 22 punchouts with only four walks and three homers allowed in 25 1/3 stanzas indicate there has been some solid pitching as well. On Friday, Sanchez toes the rubber in Citizens Bank Park against the disappointing Padres lineup.
Two pitchers with the ability to move the fantasy needle are back in action Friday night, but they’re burdened with risky matchups. Those patiently waiting for Carlos Rodon (91.6%) to make his New York Yankees debut are likely cautiously optimistic after he limited the Cubs to two runs in 5 1/3 innings, albeit with just two strikeouts. However, Rodon’s follow-up is slated for Coors Field, normally an automatic avoid. On the other hand, the Rockies’ home wOBA facing left-handers is ranked just 23rd in MLB, with the fifth-highest strikeout rate. Considering the Yankees’ bullpen is one of the best and of course well rested, Rodon won’t be hung out to dry, so the reward outweighs the risk.
From mid-May through mid-June, Michael Kopech (25.5%) was one of the best starters in the league. Over a five-game stretch, he registered a 1.72 ERA and .67 WHIP, with 44 strikeouts to only five walks over that 31 1/3 inning span. Kopech then went into a tailspin, walking an eye-popping 16 over his next 12 innings, encompassing three starts. He was subsequently placed on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Kopech is back, but he opens the second half with a road start in Atlanta. Here, it’s best to take the wait-and-see route, but if his velocity is close to normal and his control looks good, Kopech could be a post-break fantasy difference-maker.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.