MLB season preview: Ranking all 30 teams as baseball returns
Jeff Passan takes us through the 2022-23 MLB offseason, which consisted of huge deals, big tournaments and some brand new rules to the game. (2:33)
MLB opening week is here — and if you blinked this offseason, you missed a lot.
With some of the game’s most recognizable faces in new places, it’s time to reset the rankings for 2023. Will newcomer Xander Bogaerts, plus a full year from Juan Soto and the return of Fernando Tatis Jr., mean a parade for the San Diego Padres? What will Justin Verlander‘s move from the Houston Astros to the New York Mets mean for the defending World Series champs and his new team in Queens? Did the Los Angeles Dodgers make the right move by not breaking the bank this winter? Will Aaron Judge captain the New York Yankees to their first title in 14 years?
We asked our baseball experts to rank every team from 1 to 30 going into the new season for our first MLB Power Rankings of the year, while ESPN MLB writers Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield teamed up to provide a rundown of what the season could bring, along with Doolittle’s win-loss projections and playoff odds for all 30 teams.
Projected record: 92-70 (78% playoff odds | 8.2% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: In this day and age, you don’t usually find a defending champ with a young rotation, but that’s the case with these Astros. Over the past couple of years, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander have left via free agency. What’s left are no rotation members who are 30 or older. And yet this might be one of the most dynamic rotations in baseball, led by the filthy duo of Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, with Hunter Brown looming as a potential ace. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … The Astros become the first back-to-back World Series champions since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. Just as impressive would be a seventh consecutive trip to the American League Championship Series. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Yordan Alvarez‘s age-25 season saw him post a 1.019 OPS and 37 home runs, good enough to finish third for the AL MVP. He might already be the game’s best hitter; offense alone helped him reach 6.6 FanGraphs wins above replacement (fWAR) last season. If he contributes a little more on the defensive side, he should challenge the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge for the trophy. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Alvarez chases the Triple Crown and leads the American League with 48 home runs but finishes second to Josh Bell in RBIs and second to Wander Franco in batting average. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 93-69 (81% playoff odds | 8.7% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: Once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns to the lineup next month — and with plenty to prove — the Padres will have a to-die-for top of the lineup consisting of offseason prize Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, Tatis and Manny Machado. It’s an older group and pretty expensive, but in terms of sheer star power, we’ve never seen anything quite like this in San Diego. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … Downtown San Diego is packed with tens of thousands of Padres fans for a parade on Nov. 6. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: If you watched Soto’s at-bats during the World Baseball Classic, you saw someone who was already locked in, clearly motivated to recover from a relatively down year that still saw him slash .242/.401/.452. Soto is not a .242 hitter. Not even close. And now that he has settled into a new environment, he’ll prove, once again, that he is the best pure hitter on the planet and make a run at an MVP. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Blake Snell has started slow and finished strong in both of his two seasons in San Diego, but this year he starts strong — and starts the All-Star Game in his hometown of Seattle. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 94-68 (85% playoff odds | 10.5% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: In a winter that was more about shuffling than improving, the Braves have a new long-term catcher in Sean Murphy but lost franchise shortstop Dansby Swanson to the Cubs in free agency. After young infielders Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake failed to win the job to replace Swanson in spring training, Atlanta will open the season with veteran Orlando Arcia at the spot after using him in a utility role the past couple of campaigns. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They win the NL East and make it back to the World Series. Last year’s team was better than the 2021 team that won it all, which shows the unpredictability of the playoffs, but the Braves’ chances of winning it all improve if they win the division title and avoid that wild-card series. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: There are so many options to choose from on this team, but let’s go with Ronald Acuna Jr. getting back to being … Ronald Acuna Jr. His magical 2019 was followed by the COVID-19-shortened season, then a 2021 season cut short by a torn ACL and a 2022 season in which he clearly wasn’t himself just yet. He’s still just 25 years old, and the Braves say he’s fully healthy now. At his best, Acuna is one of the most electric players in the sport — and a prime MVP candidate. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: There have been 65 30-30 seasons in MLB history. Fifteen of those came from center fielders. Only six of those guys hit .300. Four of those six won a Gold Glove: Willie Mays, Dale Murphy, Matt Kemp (!) and Jacoby Ellsbury. Michael Harris II becomes the fifth member of the 30/30/.300/CF/Gold Glove club. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 96-66 (88% playoff odds | 12.4% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The Yankees should have a younger look this season after seeing a number of 30-something players leave via free agency. All eyes in spring training have been on Anthony Volpe, who might take over at shortstop as soon as Opening Day after the Yankees announced he will start the season with the team. Free agent prize Carlos Rodon has also received a lot of attention, but not for a great reason: The Yankees’ splashiest addition has had a balky elbow. If he’s healthy, he’ll team up with Gerrit Cole for a super one-two punch atop the New York rotation. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They win the World Series. Do we need to explain this? The Yankees haven’t even been to a World Series since 2009. Bad luck, garbage can scandals, conspiracy theories, too many strikeouts, bad clutch hitting, not enough left-handed hitters, no heart, no Jeter, no Rivera, Aaron Boone can’t manage his way out of a wet paper bag … whatever the excuse or reason, Yankees fans have multitudes of them. It’s time to raise the trophy. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: What Aaron Judge did last season — produce a .311/425/.686 slash line, draw 111 walks and still manage an AL-record 62 home runs — would be amazing in any era. It seems impossible in this one, given how difficult hitting has become. Judge has been an MVP contender every time he has played a full season, and there’s no reason that won’t be the case again in 2023. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Judge follows up his 62-homer season with … 47. And a bunch of other superlative statistics. He doesn’t win the MVP, but he finishes third. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 91-71 (75% playoff odds | 6.5% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The Dodgers saw a mass exodus of veteran talent over the winter, a big-name group that ranged from a former MVP in Cody Bellinger to a possible future MVP in Trea Turner to a franchise icon in Justin Turner. This version of the Dodgers will look very different, but one thing that hasn’t changed in Chavez Ravine: the expectation to win the World Series. — Doolittle
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The season will be a success if … They win an NL West title and a World Series. The Dodgers won the NL West in nine of the past 10 seasons, and the one season they didn’t win it, they still won 106 games. Yes, they have more holes than they’ve had in a long time, but the lineup still has Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith and J.D. Martinez. The rotation still has Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin (although he won’t be ready for Opening Day) and Noah Syndergaard, plus two of the top pitching prospects in the game in Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone. So yeah, this season will be a success if it follows the path of other recent seasons. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Perhaps being ranked ninth in our 2023 top 100 will anger Betts enough that he’ll go out and win another MVP. At 30 years old, he remains arguably the best all-around position player in the sport, capable of beating teams with his glove, arm, bat and feet. There might not be a more natural athlete around. If you don’t believe us, just wait until you see him play second base this year. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: For all the talk about the Padres’ big four hitters, let’s go with this: Freeman, Betts, Smith and Martinez will produce more runs than Tatis, Soto, Machado and Bogaerts. We’ll use batting runs above average from Baseball-Reference. Check back in October. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 90-72 (71% playoff odds | 5.6% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The payroll? The Mets have spared no expense in building a roster that is long on star power and looks pretty deep as well. Yet there is a major void that opened up late in spring training when Edwin Diaz, the top current reliever in baseball, injured his knee during a postgame celebration at the WBC. Ouch. A bright, bright spotlight will now shine on relievers David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley and, perhaps most of all, manager Buck Showalter when the season begins. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … Let’s just say that owner Steve Cohen doesn’t have any vacations to Hawaii planned for the first week of November. Remember to leave a couple of additional days for a ticker-tape parade, Steve! — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are basically fused at the hip at this point, for obvious reasons — late in their careers, still pitching at the height of their powers, and now making up the best rotation tandem in the major leagues. Scherzer and Verlander boast six Cy Young Awards between them, including Verlander’s from last season. They’ll fall off at some point, but there have been scant signs of that thus far. Until they prove otherwise, they’ll continue to vie for more Cy Youngs, including this season. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: With Diaz out, Robertson leads the team in saves. But David Bednar will be the closer when the Mets reach the postseason, after he comes over in a trade with the Pirates. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 89-73 (66% playoff odds | 4.7% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: In the wake of a major knee injury suffered late in spring training by slugger Rhys Hoskins, there is some fancy navigating ahead for second-year manager Rob Thomson. The Phillies’ position group didn’t seem particularly deep to begin with, and the project of holding down the fort until Bryce Harper returns later this season is now made that much harder. Can Thomson juggle the challenge of hanging with the Mets and Braves while keeping his veterans from wearing down by the time Harper returns? — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … The Phillies can match last year’s exciting playoff run. They’ll need to hang in there until Harper returns, and they can’t afford any injuries to the rotation, but let’s see if last October’s momentum carries over into 2023. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: As he nears his 30s, Trea Turner really seems to be coming into his own offensively, providing a speed-power combination that might be rivaled by only Betts. With Harper and Hoskins out, Turner, signed to an 11-year, $300 million contract this offseason, will need to step up at the top of the lineup. The bigger bases and the limited pickoffs might give him just enough of an extra boost to finish within the top three in MVP voting for the first time. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Did you watch the World Baseball Classic? If you did, this prediction hardly qualifies as courageous. It’s about as bold as wearing shorts and a T-shirt the first day the temperature turns 60 degrees: Trea Turner for National League MVP. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 93-69 (80% playoff odds | 8.5% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: Ever since the Blue Jays rose back into the ranks of contenders in 2020, they’ve been trying to fill in the cracks to solidify a title-contending roster. This offseason saw the addition of Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, along with the departure of Teoscar Hernandez, leaving Toronto with a team defense that could leap from average to elite. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They win the AL East … make it to the ALCS … and make it to the World Series for the first time since Joe Carter had his big moment in 1993. After back-to-back seasons of 91 and 92 wins, the Jays have the talent and the expectations to think bigger than merely making the playoffs as a wild card. That’s the minimum. Their World Series dreams might depend on Jose Berrios bouncing back and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. coming closer to his 2021 numbers, but the 1-2 punch of Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah could be the best in the AL and gives them World Series dreams. — Schoenfield
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Most likely 2023 award winner: Manoah is only 25, and yet he’s already one of the game’s best pitchers. He made that big a leap in his second full season, ultimately finishing third in AL Cy Young voting in 2022. He’ll only be better now that he’s a year older and will be backed by a better outfield defense — especially since Manoah generated more weak contact than he did strikeouts last year. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: New outfielder Varsho goes 30-30, joining Shawn Green and Jose Cruz Jr. as the only Blue Jays to do it. Realistic after 27 home runs and 16 steals last year for Arizona? Look for Varsho’s average and OBP to go up without the shift, giving him more opportunities to run. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 92-70 (81% playoff odds | 8.0% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The second half of last season was dominated by the farewell tours of Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols. Now, those two Redbirds legends have indeed said farewell and a new era in St. Louis baseball is at hand. Most of the faces are familiar, including Molina’s replacement behind the plate, former Cub Willson Contreras. The big difference is that Cardinals fans will no longer be rooting against him. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They reach the World Series. The Cardinals seem content to win what has been a soft division in recent seasons, in addition to around 90 games. But they’ve also gone 1-9 in their past four playoff series, losing the wild-card series in 2020 and 2022, the wild-card game in 2021 and getting swept in the 2019 NLCS. Will they go any further in 2023? They do have some exciting prospects on the way, but if Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado slip from their high level of 2022, even the division title isn’t a guarantee. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Jordan Walker, the No. 14 prospect on Kiley McDaniel’s Top 100, torched through spring training and showed he might be ready to handle major league pitching at the age of 20. The Cardinals have announced he will be on the Opening Day roster, now it is a matter of finding ways to get him in the lineup. Originally a third baseman who could transition to first, Walker has adjusted pretty well to the corner outfield, a necessity with Goldschmidt and Arenado on the roster. His power is off the charts. And we could see that translate to the big leagues soon enough to make a Rookie of the Year run. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: All aboard the Lars Nootbaar bandwagon! Nootbaar hits 30 home runs, makes the All-Star team and gets some down-ballot MVP votes. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 86-76 (49% playoff odds | 2.9% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: With multiple additions — Kolten Wong to bolster the defense, Tommy LaStella to come off the bench and Teoscar Hernandez to anchor the lineup from the cleanup spot — the Mariners have a more balanced and dynamic group of hitters who, as a collective, should play better team defense as well. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … The Mariners ended their long playoff drought last year and even tasted postseason victory with the wild-card win over Toronto. This year it means going … ahh, let’s just say it: One step further would be nice, but two steps further and reaching the first World Series in franchise history is what this team believes it can achieve. And if you can reach the World Series … — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Last season, Julio Rodriguez cracked the Opening Day roster at the age of 21 and became a star almost immediately (we say “almost” because, if you’ll remember, April was a struggle). Rodriguez wowed the fans of Seattle in the batter’s box, on the bases and in the field, and his smile and his charisma made him a marketer’s dream. What will Year 2 bring? It’s fun to simply consider the possibilities. The reigning Rookie of the Year should elevate himself to MVP status. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: We could predict Luis Castillo to win the Cy Young Award or George Kirby to start the All-Star Game (which is in Seattle) or Logan Gilbert to win 20 games, but it’s more fun to do something with Julio. Let’s say he finishes second in the MVP voting (Ohtani goes chalk) and does so while hitting 40 home runs. He hit 27 over his final 99 games last year — a 41-homer pace over 150 games. Only 10 players age 22 or younger have hit 40 home runs in a season (Eddie Mathews did it twice). Three have done it since 2019: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuna Jr. And guess what? Julio’s dad’s name is … Julio Sr. So that makes him a Junior as well. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 89-73 (65% playoff odds | 4.8% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: A team known for roster churn had relatively little of it over the winter, but the Rays did bid farewell to longtime center fielder Kiermaier in their ongoing bid to keep as many in-their-prime producers in key spots as possible. Beyond that, the hope is for better health from stalwarts like Brandon Lowe, Pete Fairbanks and Tyler Glasnow. — Doolittle
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The season will be a success if … They return to the postseason for the fifth consecutive season. That might be a tough ask in the AL East and with the improved teams in the AL West, but the AL East has had three playoff teams each of the past two seasons. Going all the way? The lineup seems to lack that superstar linchpin, although maybe it gets there if Lowe hits again and Wander Franco improves. But the Rays hit .211 in their playoff loss to the Red Sox in 2021 and scored one run in two games in their wild-card loss to the Guardians in 2022. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Shane McClanahan was the AL’s best pitcher in the first half last year, posting a 1.71 ERA and 147 strikeouts in 110⅔ innings. He faded down the stretch, then worked on his body over the offseason in hopes that that will never happen again. He should be a prime Cy Young contender in 2023. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: All the projection systems have Franco hitting .280-something — barely above the .277 mark from last season, when injuries affected his playing time and perhaps his production. Let’s call for a breakout season and predict a batting title with a .321 average. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 91-71 (74% playoff odds | 6.9% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The youthful, scrapping Guardians you saw in last year’s playoffs return largely intact, albeit a year older, wiser and perhaps more confident after 2022’s surprising success. There’s a new presence in the middle of the order, as switch-hitter Josh Bell signed as a free agent to help a lineup long on speed and contact ability crystallize into a more dynamic form. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … The Guardians return every decent player from a 92-win team, and while not prohibitive favorites in the AL Central, they are certainly favored to win it again. That means they should absolutely have World Series aspirations. Whether they have enough power to get there is the big question. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: There might not be a more consistent all-around player in the sport than the criminally underrated Jose Ramirez, who has finished within the top six in AL MVP voting five of the past six years. He’s a complete hitter, a superb defender and a dangerous base stealer without the flashy tools. He should once again be good for a batting average around .300, 20-plus home runs, 20-plus stolen bases, triple-digit RBIs and somewhere in the neighborhood of 7.0 fWAR. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: The Guardians kind of have an old-school lineup, especially if Andres Gimenez bats second (as he should) rather than Amed Rosario. That gives them two solid on-base guys without a ton of power at the top of the lineup, Ramirez batting third and Bell cleanup. Which means a ton of RBI opportunities for Bell. Put it this way: Cleveland’s cleanup hitters were terrible last season (.693 OPS) and still drove in 95 runs. So Bell will lead the AL in RBIs. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 85-77 (49% playoff odds | 2.6% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The front office is different, with Matt Arnold taking over at general manager for David Stearns, who stepped down. You wouldn’t know it by Milwaukee’s offseason moves, which had a similar flavor to past hot stoves. That’s not a bad thing. Meanwhile, some anticipated position players are pushing through, with Brice Turang likely taking over at second, Garrett Mitchell in center and prospects like Sal Frelick and Jackson Chourio not far away. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They can beat out the Cardinals for the NL Central title. The general consensus sees the Brewers taking a step back after missing the playoffs last year for the first time since 2017, but any team with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff fronting the rotation has a puncher’s chance. If they can clinch the division, that’s a huge win. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Burnes seemingly had a bit of a dip in production coming off his Cy Young Award in 2021, but he topped 200 innings for the first time, led the NL in strikeouts and still fashioned a 2.94 ERA in 2022. The 28-year-old right-hander remains one of the sport’s best pitchers. And if his home run rate comes back to normal, he’ll make another run at a Cy Young. Perhaps he’ll find some added fuel in his anger toward the Brewers’ arbitration process. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: The Brewers lead the NL in home runs. Hey, they were second a year ago (albeit 34 behind the Braves). William Contreras joins Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames in the 30-homer club. Less bold: Burnes takes home his second Cy Young Award. Power and starting pitching? Don’t overlook the Brewers. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 85-77 (48% playoff odds | 2.6% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The Twins will have a rotation bolstered by the acquisition of Pablo Lopez and the return of Kenta Maeda. But perhaps the biggest change will be the identity of Minnesota’s Gold Glove-caliber center fielder. At the start of the season, at least, it’ll be trade acquisition Michael A. Taylor. Meanwhile, in another load management initiative, the Twins will make Byron Buxton the most athletic DH in the history of the game. — Doolittle
Opening Week is finally here! Tune in for the start of the 2023 season with some of the biggest early matchups.
Thursday
4:05 p.m. ET on ESPN+: Phillies-Rangers
7 p.m. ET on ESPN: White Sox-Astros
Friday
10:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+: Diamondbacks-Dodgers
Sunday
1:35 p.m. ET on ESPN+: Giants-Yankees
7 p.m. ET on ESPN: Phillies-Rangers
The season will be a success if … They win the AL Central AND beat the Yankees in a playoff series. That’s right, we’re skipping right past “win a playoff game” (the Twins have lost an unfathomable 18 in a row) and going straight to winning a series. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Carlos Correa is here to stay, on the heels of a massive free agent contract — and a roller-coaster free agency — that will make him the face of the Twins for the next … well, six years at least. He’s a feared hitter and a strong defender at a premium position who is still — amazingly — only 28 years old. And given the unique structure of his contract, he’ll be extra motivated to put up MVP numbers. Correa has yet to finish within the top three in MVP voting. If he’s healthy, that might change in 2023. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Joe Ryan wins 17 games and finishes with a sub-3.00 ERA and in the top five of Cy Young voting. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 79-83 (18% playoff odds | 0.7% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The Angels’ active roster to begin the season — before any injuries — looks deeper than in seasons past. There are more than enough quality arms for a six-man rotation. Additions to the position player group have given manager Phil Nevin more lineup flexibility and a better bench. The bullpen? Well, the rest of the roster looks good. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … Ohtani finishes the season in an Angels uniform … and then starts the first game of a playoff series. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: We’ll go with two here, because it’s fitting: Ohtani and Trout — our No. 1- and No. 2-ranked players, respectively, heading into the 2023 season — both vying for the AL MVP. They boast nine top-two finishes for the AL MVP between them and look like the favorites to finish 1 and 2 this year, in whatever order. Ohtani is only getting better as a two-way player and could be in for a big year — perhaps his biggest yet — leading up to free agency. Trout is still only 31. And when healthy, he still looks like one of the greatest baseball players on the planet. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Picking Ohtani to win the MVP isn’t exactly as daring as, say, when the White Sox thought it was a good idea to wear shorts (that idea lasted three games). How about a Cy Young Award then? He finished fourth a year ago, and the issue is if he can pitch enough innings to merit stronger consideration. He pitched 166 last year — but that was only nine fewer than Verlander threw in winning it and one less than Burnes threw when he won in 2021. So, a few more deep starts or maybe an extra one or two — more likely if the Angels are in the playoff race — and he can get to 175 or 180 innings and pull it off. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 83-79 (37% playoff odds | 1.6% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: Not much — except pretty much everything. The Rangers have a new brain trust with a Chris Young-led front office and a Hall of Fame-bound manager in Bruce Bochy, whose John Prine-sounding baritone will fit Texas like a weathered glove. And, also, there is an all-new rotation that the Rangers have purchased over the past year-plus, led by best-pitcher-on-the-planet-when-healthy Jacob deGrom. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They sneak into the playoffs, which they last made in 2016. It’s a big jump from 68 wins to the postseason, especially in a league where five teams won 90 games a year ago and seven did so in 2021, but the Rangers are aiming for something more than just a .500 finish considering the way they have spent the past two offseasons. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: DeGrom’s five-year, $185 million free agent contract stunned a lot of people in the industry, given both his age and injury history. But it underscored an important point: When healthy, nobody is better. DeGrom followed his run of back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019 with a 2.05 ERA and 352 strikeouts in 224 1/3 innings. The problem, of course, is that those innings took place over the course of three seasons. If he avoids the injured list, deGrom will undoubtedly contend for another Cy Young. Let’s hope that’s the case. We just want to see him out there. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Hmm, we already predicted Shohei Ohtani to win the AL Cy Young Award, and doubling up is not allowed, so we’ll stay away from deGrom (probably a wise decision). Let’s instead go with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien becoming the first middle-infield duo in MLB history with 35 home runs apiece. The only team with even two 30-homer middle infielders was … you’ll never get it … don’t even try to guess … the 2008 Marlins with Hanley Ramirez (33) and Dan Uggla (32). — Schoenfield
Projected record: 74-88 (7% playoff odds | 0.1% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The most significant difference between the Orioles on the first day of spring this year as opposed to last year is expectation. That’ll happen when you jump from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 last season. The big question is whether expectations have outstripped the Orioles’ rate of actual improvement. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … It includes a trip to the postseason. Many are expecting the Orioles to take a step back after perhaps not doing enough to address pitching concerns, but if rookies Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez match Adley Rutschman‘s 2022 star rookie turn, they could surprise. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Henderson entered the season as the No. 1 prospect on Kiley McDaniel’s rankings and stands as the odds-on favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award. That shouldn’t surprise anyone. Henderson, 21, is an above-average defender at third base who brings plus power and an advanced feel for the strike zone. And he gets better every year. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Rutschman will start the All-Star Game. That’s not the bold prediction. This is: He leads the AL in on-base percentage. Aaron Judge led last year with a .425 mark, but Rutschman had a .399 OBP in the second half. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 83-79 (34% playoff odds | 1.4% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The White Sox saw 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu depart, and his absence leaves a production and leadership void that Chicago hopes to fill organically. Andrew Vaughn will get his first crack as an everyday first baseman, and power-hitting rookie Oscar Colas might end up as the regular in right. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They win the AL Central and do some damage in the playoffs. This team has the same strengths as the one that won 93 games two years ago. With better health, the expectations for this year’s team should be just as high, especially with several potential bounce-back candidates in Lucas Giolito, Yasmani Grandal and Yoan Moncada. — Schoenfield
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Most likely 2023 award winner: It took a historic season from Justin Verlander to prevent Dylan Cease from winning the AL Cy Young Award last year. His surface numbers (2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts, albeit with 78 walks) were just as good as his peripheral ones (he ranked within the top 10% in the sport in hard-hit rate, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage). His age-27 season could be a big one. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Vaughn ranked in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate last year. His swing-and-miss rate was in the 74th percentile. He’s entering his age-25 season and has two years of major league experience. The skills are here to make a leap. He needs to get the ball in the air more often and to improve his chase rate. I predict he does that and hits .275 with 30 home runs. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 78-84 (17% playoff odds | 0.5% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The middle infield is gone. The Red Sox lost Xander Bogaerts to free agency and Trevor Story to injury. The Red Sox’s signing of Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida at least must look a lot more exciting to the hardened Boston fans after everyone watched him rake during the WBC. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They make the playoffs. That should be the goal every year for this franchise, but the reality is the Red Sox have yo-yoed back and forth for the past decade between postseason glory and last-place ignominy. In the past 10 full seasons, they have two World Series titles — and four last-place finishes. No other team operates like this. Throw in last place in 2020, and that’s five basement finishes in 11 seasons. Many believe that’s where the Sox are headed in 2023, but there’s enough talent here to defy the experts of Red Sox Nation. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Rafael Devers has never finished within the top 10 in MVP voting, and this should be the year that changes. He’s the undisputed face of the franchise after signing a 10-year, $313.5 million extension. He is one of the sport’s most well-rounded hitters, and he made some nice strides defensively last season. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Yoshida proves the $90 million investment — one that many in the game questioned — worthwhile, at least in his first season, hitting .297 with a .385 OBP and scoring 100 runs. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 75-87 (12% playoff odds | 0.2% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The Cubs added veteran Jameson Taillon to work at the front of a deep rotation. Still, the most stark changes are on the position-player side. Chicago remade its lineup with a half-dozen free agent signings, with the most notable being premier shortstop Dansby Swanson and 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger, who will look to get his career back on track at Wrigley Field. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They get back over .500 and make a nice run at the playoffs while some of last season’s younger players continue to grow — guys like Justin Steele, Christopher Morel, Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad. Matt Mervis could displace Eric Hosmer at first base during the season as well. What the Cubs really need for the future, however, is a couple of impact hitters to develop, so top prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcantara and Brennen Davis will need to show they’ll be pounding on the big league door for 2024. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Bellinger is too talented and still too young to have really fallen off so much. At some point you have to trust the sample size, though, and 1,143 plate appearances — during which he slashed .203/.272/.376 in the three seasons that followed his MVP — is quite the substantive one. But we’ve seen some flashes of greatness from Bellinger in that stretch, and the 27-year-old center fielder should be better in a new environment and with more time removed from shoulder surgery. He’s a prime candidate for NL Comeback Player of the Year. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: The Cubs stay in the race until the final week of the season with the up-the-middle defense playing a key role. Swanson and Nico Hoerner win Gold Gloves as the Cubs climb from 10th in the NL in runs allowed into the top five. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 78-84 (18% playoff odds | 0.4% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: Arizona has the look of a club that is coming together fast, a process aided by a roster-balancing offseason deal that sent Daulton Varsho to Toronto in exchange for the D-backs’ catcher of the present and future, Gabriel Moreno. With 23-year-old Alek Thomas patrolling center field and Corbin Carroll flanking him as a leading NL Rookie of the Year candidate, the skies over Phoenix are growing even brighter. — Doolittle
From bigger bases to the pitch clock, baseball will look very different this season. Here’s what you need to know.
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The season will be a success if … Just two years ago the Diamondbacks lost 110 games, including a remarkable 8-48 record in May and June, so the fact that we’re already talking about them as a potential surprise playoff contender is a rapid improvement. It’s probably a year too soon to view the D-backs as serious contenders when the top NL teams are so stacked, so let’s say a .500 season with a young, exciting outfield leading the way is a reasonable goal. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: We could have easily gone with Zac Gallen for the NL Cy Young Award here given the strides he made in 2022, but Carroll is the favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year Award for obvious reasons. Carroll, 22, produced an .830 OPS in a 32-game major league sample last year — near the end of his first full season of professional baseball, mind you — and brings the type of all-around game that could make him the sport’s best rookie in 2023. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: The Diamondbacks signed Carroll to an eight-year, $111 million extension ($134 million with the ninth-year option), so you know what they think about him. He’s Kiley McDaniel’s No. 2 overall prospect, so predicting him to win NL Rookie of the Year honors is an easy choice. But let’s go with some big numbers as well: 20 home runs, 40 stolen bases and a .375 OBP. That could land him close to the top 10 of the MVP voting. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 80-82 (26% playoff odds | 0.8% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: Some of the names are different. Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling are in. Carlos Rodon and Evan Longoria are out. But the same dynamic — depth, versatility, making every percentage play — remains in effect. It can work, but it’s a bit of a letdown after the Giants were attached to such superstar names as Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa over the winter. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They win 90 games and make the playoffs. The Giants predictably fell off from their 107-win season in 2021, finishing .500. They lost Carlos Rodon and failed to land Judge or Correa. Mitch Haniger already has an oblique issue. Still, the Giants hope they can piece together a strong offense like they did in 2021 and Logan Webb leads a rotation that could be better than many expect (with rookie Kyle Harrison joining at some point). — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Webb elevated to another level last year, going 15-9 with a 2.90 ERA in nearly 200 innings while sporting the fourth-lowest home run rate in the majors. Only Framber Valdez generated more ground balls than the sinker-heavy Webb, whose steady effectiveness could place him in the Cy Young discussion in 2023. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: David Villar leads the Giants in home runs (27) and RBIs (85). — Schoenfield
Projected record: 81-81 (29% playoff odds | 1.1% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: Little by little, the Marlins are inching toward respectability with a roster built around a deep and potentially dynamic rotation. That remains the case even after Miami dealt Pablo Lopez to acquire contact maestro Luis Arraez to hit atop a new-look lineup that will also include veteran Jean Segura. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They finish over .500. The Marlins haven’t done that in a full season since 2009. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Nobody faced more batters or compiled more innings last year, and yet very few prevented runs better than Sandy Alcantara, who led the majors with six complete games, fashioned a 2.28 ERA and won the NL Cy Young Award unanimously. Alcantara has gone from a reliable innings eater to existing on a different platform from his peers. The only thing that might prevent him from winning another Cy Young is the fact that he resides on a Marlins team that won’t hit much and might not defend well, either. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Three Marlins starting pitchers make the NL All-Star team. Alcantara is joined by Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 72-90 (5% playoff odds | 0.1% World Series odds)
The Royals have a new brain trust, with J.J. Picollo beginning his first full season as head of the front office and Matt Quatraro dropping some Rays-inspired wisdom in the dugout. Depth and versatility are the new buzzwords in Kansas City, but the problem of turning its top youngsters into big-time producers — Bobby Witt Jr., especially — remains. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They finish over .500. That would be a huge improvement from 65 wins. That feels like a long shot based on this roster and preseason projections, but it’s time for some of the young Royals to get better. — Schoenfield
How bright is your team’s future? Kiley McDaniel ranks the best prospects and farm systems in baseball.
Top 100 prospects » | Bold predictions »
Ranking all 30 MLB systems for 2023 »
Team-by-team top 10 lists: NL » | AL »
Most likely 2023 award winner: Brady Singer made a really nice jump last year, reducing his walks, compiling more innings and significantly lowering both his ERA (4.91 to 3.23) and his WHIP (1.55 to 1.14). He can make another leap in his age-26 season and vault into the Cy Young conversation. But he’ll need to limit hard contact. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Witt Jr. goes 50/30 — 50 stolen bases and 30 home runs. The only two players to do that: Eric Davis in 1987 and Barry Bonds in 1990. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 71-91 (4% playoff odds | 0.0% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The rebuilding Pirates added 105 years of human existence to form a new middle of the lineup consisting of Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi. As the NL MVP winner for the Pirates a decade ago, McCutchen, to quote “Field of Dreams,” will remind Bucs fans of all that once was good, and it could be again. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … Oneil Cruz highlight videos are hotter than the Carolina Reaper. Roansy Contreras makes 32 starts and finishes with an ERA under 3.50. Endy Rodriguez finishes the year in Pittsburgh while Termarr Johnson and Henry Davis finish it as two of the top 10 prospects in the game. Bryan Reynolds signs a long-term extension to remain with the Pirates. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: He’s already one of the game’s best defensive third basemen, up there with Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado. And the new rules should help him become even more of a force on the bases. Hayes, barely 26, added some muscle over the offseason that he hopes will translate to more power. If that element of his game emerges, he could make an MVP run in the not-too-distant future. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Reynolds doesn’t sign an extension and instead gets traded to the Dodgers for a package that includes slugging outfield prospect Andy Pages and pitcher Nick Nastrini. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 66-96 (1% playoff odds | 0.0% World Series odds) — Schoenfield
What’s changed most since we saw them last: After last season’s flop, new Tigers GM Scott Harris took a measured approach to the winter, focusing on stabilizing Detroit’s young, injury-riddled rotation with the addition of Michael Lorenzen and the re-addition of Matthew Boyd. Beyond that, the focus in Detroit is on turning young major leaguers like Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene into the stars the Tigers need them to become. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … The Tigers can do better than last year’s 66-96 record. Yes, that’s a low bar, but the Tigers are entering Phase I of Rebuild II. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: The Tigers don’t need Javier Baez to contend for an MVP. But they need him to be a lot better. In his first season of a six-year, $140 million contract, Baez struck out nearly 150 times and put up an on-base percentage below .300. His OPS, .671, was 112 points lower than his career mark heading into the year. Baez was still solid defensively, but the Tigers need him to be an anchor for their lineup. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: The Tigers’ best hitter will not be hopeful sophomore stars Torkelson or Greene, but rookie DH/OF Kerry Carpenter, who hit .313 with 30 home runs in the minors last season. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 60-102 (0% playoff odds | 0.0% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: Colorado’s strategy of taking what the free agent market gave it was undermined by a gut-punch shoulder injury to arguably its best player, infielder Brendan Rodgers. There is at least an interesting apparent changing of the guard at shortstop, where two-way prospect Ezequiel Tovar looks ready to take over. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … Let’s turn this one over to Rockies owner Dick Monfort: “We have a lot of talent, a lot of good things are going to happen, and I think they are going to start happening this year, and I think we can play .500 ball,” he said at an event in January. Good luck! — Schoenfield
Who can wait six months for the deadline to arrive? Here is who all 30 teams are most likely to trade in 2023.
Most likely 2023 award winner: Tovar, 21, is a skilled defender at shortstop who showed promising offensive signs while graduating to the major leagues last season. He brings solid bat-to-ball skills that will only be elevated (Get it?) while playing in Coors Field. It’s no surprise Tovar enters 2023 as one of the front-runners for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: The Rockies finish with the worst record in the majors. But Kris Bryant wins the batting title! — Schoenfield
Projected record: 70-92 (3% playoff odds | 0.1% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The Reds appear to be biding their time with a lineup still anchored by future Hall of Famer Joey Votto and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India. Most eyes will be on the rotation anyway, where Cincinnati hopes Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft can takes steps toward becoming an elite big three. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … They lose fewer than 90 games. The Reds didn’t do much to address a 100-loss team, and most of their impressive group of infield prospects will remain in the minors. The one they would love to see make an impact, at least in the second half, is Elly De La Cruz. He has just 47 games above A-ball, but Kiley McDaniel’s No. 9 overall prospect has ridiculous tools and a huge ceiling if it comes together. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: A 6-foot-5 shortstop with 70-grade power, speed and arm strength, who slashed .945 in high A and Double-A last year? Let’s hope De La Cruz comes up early enough to make a real run at the NL Rookie of the Year Award — mostly because it’s going to be so much fun to watch him play. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Hunter Greene leads the NL in strikeouts. Let’s see. Corbin Burnes led last year with 243 and Zack Wheeler led in 2021 with 247, so we’re talking 240-plus K’s. Greene averaged 11.7 K’s per nine in 125⅔ innings last year, making 24 starts. If he can get to 175 innings and average 12.4 K’s per nine, that’s 241 strikeouts. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 64-98 (0% playoff odds | 0.0% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The A’s added veterans Shintaro Fujinami and Drew Rucinski to stabilize a rotation that will work in front of what appears to be a serviceable bullpen. That’s good because this group doesn’t figure to score many runs. — Doolittle
How bright is your team’s future? Kiley McDaniel ranks the best prospects and farm systems in baseball.
Top 100 prospects » | Bold predictions »
Ranking all 30 MLB systems for 2023 »
Team-by-team top 10 lists: NL » | AL »
The season will be a success if … The plumbing holds up? They draw a million fans? They score 600 runs? They hit higher than .216? Hey, the A’s had a nice run from 2018 to 2021 with the fifth-most wins in the majors. It’s going to take a couple more years — at least — to get back to that level. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: Ken Waldichuk, acquired in the August trade that sent Frankie Montas to the Yankees, maintained rookie eligibility for the 2023 season and could challenge for the award despite what seems like a deep field. Waldichuk, 25, is a left-hander with a funky delivery who brings advanced feel and command and what looks like a legitimate four-pitch mix. He won’t blow you away with his radar-gun readings, but he’s more polished than most rookies. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Esteury Ruiz leads the majors with 70 stolen bases, the first player to reach that total since Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009. That’s exciting, but the best news is it will mean he hits well enough to remain in the lineup on an everyday basis. — Schoenfield
Projected record: 64-98 (1% playoff odds | 0.0% World Series odds)
What’s changed most since we saw them last: The rebuild continues in D.C., which should keep Nats fans focused on the most dynamic young players on the roster. That group includes catcher Keibert Ruiz, who has already signed on for the long haul with Washington; shortstop CJ Abrams, whose speed could really be featured under the new set of MLB rules; and lefty starter MacKenzie Gore. — Doolittle
The season will be a success if … Some of the young players step up and prove themselves as foundation-type pieces for the next good Nationals team. Gore, Josiah Gray, Ruiz and Abrams are the obvious four, but this extends down to the minor leagues, with Robert Hassell reaching the majors and high-end talents like James Wood, Elijah Green, Brady House and Cristhian Vaquero performing well. — Schoenfield
Most likely 2023 award winner: The likes of Gore, Abrams, Ruiz and Gray have exceeded their rookie eligibility, while Cade Cavalli was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery and Robert Hassell has barely played above A-ball, so there aren’t any foreseeable Rookie of the Year picks on this roster. And there definitely aren’t any Cy Young or MVP hopefuls. So let’s go a little off the board here — Joey Meneses, a 30-year-old rookie last year, wins the Silver Slugger at DH. — Gonzalez
One (realistic) bold prediction: Meneses proves his late-season assault on opposing pitchers was no fluke and hits .285 with 30 home runs — but he ends the season with the Twins after a trade deadline deal. — Schoenfield