Rankings update: How March’s NHL trade deadline affects fantasy value today

February 13, 2023 admin

The NHL trade deadline is already having a significant impact on rankings and will continue to do so until March 3 comes and goes.

The production and stats for players impacted on by movement have to, in a way, get thrown out the window. Surroundings and role go a long way to determining how many fantasy points and individual contributes, so when significant changes are made to those factors, a player’s previous projection gets skewed — up or down.

Take Vladimir Tarasenko as a prime example.

So far this season, Tarasenko has managed 1.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG) with the St. Louis Blues. But his trade to the New York Rangers is going to improve his supporting cast by leaps and bounds. Exactly who he will share the ice with is the subject of another debate, as the results from the first two games were pretty wild for both Tarasenko and other lines. But he’ll be skating with some combination of Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin on a regular basis.

His supporting cast with the Blues was fine, as Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich are solid players. But the Rangers are a much better team when it comes to generating offense. For goals per 60, the Rangers rank 10th overall and 13th at five-on-five, the Blues rank 19th overall and 20th at five-on-five. For possession, the Rangers rank eighth in Corsi for per 60 overall and 22nd at five-on-five, while the Blues rank 30th overall and 30th at five-on-five.

Tarasenko has played meaningful minutes in only three of the past five seasons, missing the bulk of 2019-20 and 2020-21 with shoulder injuries, but he showed he is back up to speed with 34 goals and 82 points last season. He posted 2.2 fantasy points per game (FPPG) in the season prior to the extended shoulder issues (2018-19) and 2.4 FPPG last season.

With that reliable history, stronger cast and potential for minutes on the league’s most aggressive power play (the Rangers lead the NHL in Corsi for per 60 on the advantage), it’s fair to project Tarasenko for a much stronger finish with the Rangers than he had with the Blues. As such, he jumps from ranking 162nd on Jan. 29 (we skipped a week because of the all-star break) to ranking 87th this week.

It’s an aggressive push given the actual on-ice results we’ve had so far from Tarasenko, but that’s how projecting new situations has to work.

Some others to keep an eye on.

Erik Karlsson, D, San Jose Sharks (up 11 spots to No. 21): Pre-emptively pushing Karlsson up the ranks makes easy sense, as he’s almost a one-man band in San Jose. For as much as it helps to have Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl around, Karlsson has also played more time without them at five-on-five than he has with them this season (NaturalStatTrick.com). If he ends up moving to a contender, he instantly becomes the No. 1 defensemen for a team with a much better supporting cast. Not saying it will be the trade that works out, but the Edmonton Oilers are one goal shy of having double (DOUBLE!) the number of power-play goals that the Sharks have.

Bo Horvat, C, New York Islanders (down 10 spots to No. 26): Horvat slips a little because of his new surroundings. The Islanders, while much more aggressive than the Islanders of recent years, still aren’t as all-in on offense as the Canucks were this season. Horvat is still in a good place, but his pace will likely stay just a touch muted in his new home.

Jakob Chychrun, D, Arizona Coyotes (up four spots to No. 49): This is a tough case because it’s not just contenders with lineup holes seeking the services of Chychrun. He’s a young player with term, so he very well could be dealt to a team not bound for the NHL playoffs. But even some of the playoff-bound teams that have interest already have No. 1 defensemen that Chychrun might not immediately leapfrog for the key minutes.

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Patrick Kane, W, Chicago Blackhawks (up 23 spots to No. 117): The ultimate example in being ranked on potential here, as Kane is droppable in fantasy if you are just going off results to date. But assuming he lands on a team with a role for him on a scoring line and power play, we can rank Kane on that potential. To be clear, if March 3 comes and goes and he’s still a Blackhawk, you can drop him in fantasy unless he starts looking a lot more like Patrick Kane in the next two weeks.

Brock Boeser, W, Vancouver Canucks (up 13 spots to No. 202): The Canucks don’t have to deal Boeser, but they might. He, like Kane, is not fantasy relevant based on the returns this season. But a new home could resurrect his scoring prowess. Think of the playoff teams that have superstar lines but lack a little punch on one of them. Boeser, if traded, could end up in a very good situation.

Ryan O’Reilly, C, St. Louis Blues (enters top 250 at No. 241): A little less exciting, the best we can hope for O’Reilly is a new home in desperate need of a second-line center that has some good wingers to surround him with. The obvious is the Colorado Avalanche, but even that isn’t technically true, as Gabriel Landeskog would need to be healthy to really give the team two lines’ worth of solid wingers. But if O’Reilly escapes St. Louis to a better fantasy situation, he could get back on the radar as a fringe contributor.

Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs (up 16 spots to No. 5): Reports have him back with the Leafs as early as Wednesday, so it’s great news that he is looking at the shorter end of his injury timeline. It’s safe to assume Matthews will be back on the top line with William Nylander and Michael Bunting, with John Tavares and Mitchell Marner back with Calle Jarnkrok. Bunting’s chance to add some power-play points will also come to an end at that point.

Artemi Panarin, W, New York Rangers (up 40 spots to No. 64): As alluded to above in discussing Tarasenko, the Rangers have some very interesting early returns from the trade. In the first game, Tarasenko played with Panarin and Zibanejad and made an instant impact with the game’s first goal. The Rangers started Saturday’s game against the Hurricanes with that combo, but played with the lines and had explosive results. Panarin got in five minutes — 5:01 to be exact — at five-on-five with Jimmy Vesey and Trocheck and scored four goals. Yes, four goals in five minutes on just six shots generated. It’s not an oft-used combination prior to Saturday’s game, with just over 37 minutes together in parts of 22 games (MoneyPuck.com) and only one goal, but you have to think the Rangers will try it again. This is all around good news for Panarin, who, when he’s not with his buddy Tarasenko, has an explosive combination with Trocheck and Vesey as a fall-back.

Filip Chytil, C, New York Rangers (up 37 spots to No. 165): Sticking with the Rangers for a bit here, let’s set aside Chytil’s burst of offense to focus on the power play. One might think adding Tarasenko gives you a no-brainer advantage for the Rangers: Zibanejad, Panarin, Chris Kreider, Tarasenko and Adam Fox on the point. But through two games, the Rangers have been loath to remove Chytil from that top power-play unit where I penciled in Tarasenko. It’s a great spot, to be sure, and would help continue to drive Chytil into sustained fantasy territory. It also makes a bit of sense when you consider the second power-play unit has a pretty good start with Trocheck and Tarasenko to make the second unit dangerous as well. The bottom line is that Chytil has multiple avenues to continue to put up points worthy of fantasy rosters.

Jakub Vrana, W, Detroit Red Wings (enters top 250 at No. 239): The Red Wings remain completely mum on the Vrana situation. As a catchup: He left the team after two games in October to join the NHL’s player assistance program, which is there for “dealing with mental health, substance abuse and other issues.” When he left the program in late December he was originally on a conditioning stint in the AHL but was subsequently waived by the team, a risky move because any other club could have laid claim to the scoring-line winger, but no one did. At first, the move made sense by the Wings as Vrana wasn’t on his game. He had a lone assist through his first eight games in the AHL with the Grand Rapids Griffins. But Vrana has found his game since then, scoring six goals and notching four assists in the past eight games in the AHL. There’s no question the Red Wings would benefit from his presence, as they rank 30th in the NHL for goals per 60 at five-on-five in the past month, but there’s clearly more at play than just his ability here. He could rejoin the Wings, he could get traded, he could be left to languish and tear apart the AHL. But with his game clearly back on track, it’s worth being aware of the possible outcomes.

John Carlson, D, Washington Capitals (up 38 spots to No. 136): There is not much news in the way of Carlson updates these days. There was a burst of news to confirm he was doing OK after taking a slapshot to the side of the head just before Christmas, but not much since. This ranking here is an optimistic one, assuming he missed the rest of February and returns in early March. Admittedly, that might not be the case. The Athletic reported that he might be pushing April and be back just in time for the end of the regular season. That would definitely take him right off the fantasy radar. So take this ranking with the grain of optimistic salt it comes with.

Bowen Byram, D, Colorado Avalanche (enters top 250 at No. 191): Healthy again on the Avs blue line, Byram creates enough offense even in the shadow of Cale Makar to be fantasy relevant. He’s been back for three games, he played 10 at the start of the season and he’s just on the border of fantasy relevance overall with 1.7 FPPG.

Logan Thompson, G, Vegas Golden Knights (down 49 spots to No. 130): Lower-body injury plus week-to-week status for goaltenders is never good news. Sure, we could see Thompson back on the ice next week, but history suggests these kind of injuries more often than not linger for goaltenders. It’s best to make sure Adin Hill is claimed in your fantasy league and, depending on how much you relied on Thompson, start looking for a longer-term bridge for your fantasy club.

Jack Campbell, G, Edmonton Oilers (up 20 spots to No. 144): Need someone to replace Thompson? How about Campbell, who is back on track as the Oilers starter and is only one or two more good games away from completely wresting the crease back from Stuart Skinner.

Martin Jones, G, Seattle Kraken (down 64 spots to No. 153): Similar to the situation in Edmonton, the presumed backup that stole the crease from the starter with sustained success earlier in the season is giving way to a resurgent original starter. Philipp Grubauer may be worthy of some fantasy attention in the coming weeks, but the bloom seems to be coming off the Jones rose either way.

Dan Vladar, G, Calgary Flames (up 35 spots to No. 195): Also pitted in an unexpected battle to potential be his team’s No. 1 goalie, Vladar’s jostling with Jacob Markstrom continues to have nuance. He is winning more games than Markstrom, but their ratios are very close so it seems to be one goaltender getting the benefit of goal support. Sure enough, the Flames are scoring 3.2 goals per 60 at five-on-five with Vladar on the ice and only 2.6 goals per 60 with Markstrom in net (NaturalStatTrick.com).

1. Connor McDavid, C, Edm (F1)
2. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Col (F2)
3. David Pastrnak, RW, Bos (F3)
4. Leon Draisaitl, LW, Edm (F4)
5. Auston Matthews, C, Tor (F5)
6. Roman Josi, D, Nsh (D1)
7. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, TB (G1)
8. Mikko Rantanen, RW, Col (F6)
9. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buf (D2)
10. Cale Makar, D, Col (D3)
11. Nikita Kucherov, RW, TB (F7)
12. Tage Thompson, C, Buf (F8)
13. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, Fla (F9)
14. Elias Pettersson, C, Van (F10)
15. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Min (F11)
16. Jake Oettinger, G, Dal (G2)
17. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Wpg (G3)
18. Juuse Saros, G, Nsh (G4)
19. Steven Stamkos, C, TB (F12)
20. Igor Shesterkin, G, NYR (G5)
21. Erik Karlsson, D, SJ (D4)
22. Timo Meier, RW, SJ (F13)
23. Alex Pietrangelo, D, Vgk (D5)
24. Linus Ullmark, G, Bos (G6)
25. Jack Hughes, C, NJ (F14)
26. Alex Ovechkin, LW, Wsh (F15)
27. Tim Stutzle, LW, Ott (F16)
28. Brayden Point, C, TB (F17)
29. Ilya Sorokin, G, NYI (G7)
30. Aleksander Barkov, C, Fla (F18)
31. Josh Morrissey, D, Wpg (D6)
32. Zach Hyman, LW, Edm (F19)
33. Charlie McAvoy, D, Bos (D7)
34. Jason Robertson, LW, Dal (F20)
35. Mika Zibanejad, C, NYR (F21)
36. Bo Horvat, C, NYI (F22)
37. Alexandar Georgiev, G, Col (G8)
38. Sidney Crosby, C, Pit (F23)
39. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ott (F24)
40. Mitchell Marner, RW, Tor (F25)
41. Dougie Hamilton, D, NJ (D8)
42. Adam Fox, D, NYR (D9)
43. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edm (F26)
44. Sebastian Aho, C, Car (F27)
45. Kyle Connor, LW, Wpg (F28)
46. Brad Marchand, LW, Bos (F29)
47. Mikhail Sergachev, D, TB (D10)
48. John Tavares, C, Tor (F30)
49. Jakob Chychrun, D, Ari (D11)
50. Moritz Seider, D, Det (D12)
51. Vitek Vanecek, G, NJ (G9)
52. Victor Hedman, D, TB (D13)
53. William Nylander, RW, Tor (F31)
54. Jordan Kyrou, C, StL (F32)
55. Kris Letang, D, Pit (D14)
56. Mats Zuccarello, RW, Min (F33)
57. Alex Tuch, RW, Buf (F34)
58. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Wpg (F35)
59. Roope Hintz, C, Dal (F36)
60. J.T. Miller, C, Van (F37)
61. Travis Konecny, RW, Phi (F38)
62. Thomas Chabot, D, Ott (D15)
63. Seth Jones, D, Chi (D16)
64. Artemi Panarin, LW, NYR (F39)
65. Tristan Jarry, G, Pit (G10)
66. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Wpg (F40)
67. Jake Guentzel, LW, Pit (F41)
68. Mark Scheifele, C, Wpg (F42)
69. Nico Hischier, C, NJ (F43)
70. Jared Spurgeon, D, Min (D17)
71. Jack Eichel, C, Vgk (F44)
72. Alex DeBrincat, LW, Ott (F45)
73. Jacob Trouba, D, NYR (D18)
74. Rasmus Andersson, D, Cgy (D19)
75. Darcy Kuemper, G, Wsh (G11)
76. Brandon Hagel, LW, TB (F46)
77. Dylan Larkin, C, Det (F47)
78. Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Min (F48)
79. Jake DeBrusk, LW, Bos (F49)
80. Adam Larsson, D, Sea (D20)
81. Brent Burns, D, Car (D21)
82. Miro Heiskanen, D, Dal (D22)
83. Frederik Andersen, G, Car (G12)
84. Ilya Samsonov, G, Tor (G13)
85. Patrice Bergeron, C, Bos (F50)
86. Tomas Hertl, C, SJ (F51)
87. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, NYR (F52)
88. Joe Pavelski, RW, Dal (F53)
89. Evgeni Malkin, C, Pit (F54)
90. Elias Lindholm, RW, Cgy (F55)
91. Anze Kopitar, C, LA (F56)
92. Valeri Nichushkin, RW, Col (F57)
93. Jeff Skinner, LW, Buf (F58)
94. Filip Forsberg, LW, Nsh (F59)
95. Evander Kane, LW, Edm (F60)
96. Jeremy Swayman, G, Bos (G14)
97. Quinn Hughes, D, Van (D23)
98. Kevin Fiala, C, LA (F61)
99. Jesper Bratt, RW, NJ (F62)
100. Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Car (F63)
101. Vince Dunn, D, Sea (D24)
102. Claude Giroux, LW, Ott (F64)
103. Noah Dobson, D, NYI (D25)
104. Brandon Montour, D, Fla (D26)
105. Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Col (F65)
106. Vincent Trocheck, C, NYR (F66)
107. Logan Couture, C, SJ (F67)
108. Patrik Laine, RW, Cls (F68)
109. Jeff Petry, D, Pit (D27)
110. Martin Necas, C, Car (F69)
111. Aaron Ekblad, D, Fla (D28)
112. Pavel Buchnevich, RW, StL (F70)
113. Carter Verhaeghe, C, Fla (F71)
114. Mathew Barzal, C, NYI (F72)
115. Chris Kreider, LW, NYR (F73)
116. Drake Batherson, C, Ott (F74)
117. Patrick Kane, RW, Chi (F75)
118. Justin Faulk, D, StL (D29)
119. Rickard Rakell, C, Pit (F76)
120. Clayton Keller, C, Ari (F77)
121. Sam Reinhart, RW, Fla (F78)
122. Dylan Cozens, C, Buf (F79)
123. Devon Toews, D, Col (D30)
124. Boone Jenner, C, Cls (F80)
125. Darnell Nurse, D, Edm (D31)
126. Anthony Duclair, LW, Fla (F81)
127. Ben Chiarot, D, Det (D32)
128. Jamie Benn, LW, Dal (F82)
129. Brock Nelson, C, NYI (F83)
130. Logan Thompson, G, Vgk (G15)
131. Matty Beniers, C, Sea (F84)
132. Nazem Kadri, C, Cgy (F85)
133. Torey Krug, D, StL (D33)
134. Ondrej Palat, LW, NJ (F86)
135. David Krejci, C, Bos (F87)
136. John Carlson, D, Wsh (D34)
137. Carter Hart, G, Phi (G16)
138. Pheonix Copley, G, LA (0)
139. Ivan Provorov, D, Phi (D35)
140. Trevor Zegras, C, Ana (F88)
141. Sean Durzi, D, LA (D36)
142. Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Cls (F89)
143. Adrian Kempe, C, LA (F90)
144. Jack Campbell, G, Edm (G17)
145. David Savard, D, Mon (D37)
146. Blake Wheeler, RW, Wpg (F91)
147. Tyler Toffoli, RW, Cgy (F92)
148. Alec Martinez, D, Vgk (D38)
149. Tony DeAngelo, D, Phi (D39)
150. Filip Gustavsson, G, Min (G18)
151. Morgan Rielly, D, Tor (D40)
152. Drew Doughty, D, LA (D41)
153. Martin Jones, G, Sea (G19)
154. Anders Lee, LW, NYI (F93)
155. Lawson Crouse, LW, Ari (F94)
156. Phillip Danault, C, LA (F95)
157. Nick Schmaltz, C, Ari (F96)
158. Stuart Skinner, G, Edm (G20)
159. K’Andre Miller, D, NYR (D42)
160. Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Fla (G21)
161. Jake McCabe, D, Chi (D43)
162. Eeli Tolvanen, LW, Sea (F97)
163. Robert Thomas, C, StL (F98)
164. Filip Hronek, D, Det (D44)
165. Filip Chytil, RW, NYR (F99)
166. Scott Laughton, C, Phi (F100)
167. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Min (G22)
168. Adam Beckman, C, Min (F101)
169. Hampus Lindholm, D, Bos (D45)
170. Chandler Stephenson, C, Vgk (F102)
171. J.T. Compher, RW, Col (F103)
172. Matt Duchene, C, Nsh (F104)
173. Nick Suzuki, C, Mon (F105)
174. Tyson Barrie, D, Edm (D46)
175. Kevin Hayes, C, Phi (F106)
176. Ville Husso, G, Det (G23)
177. Jared McCann, LW, Sea (F107)
178. Matt Boldy, LW, Min (F108)
179. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Cgy (F109)
180. Joel Edmundson, D, Mon (D47)
181. Sam Bennett, LW, Fla (F110)
182. Jason Zucker, LW, Pit (F111)
183. Ryan Graves, D, NJ (D48)
184. Brayden Schenn, C, StL (F112)
185. Cam Talbot, G, Ott (G24)
186. Tyler Bertuzzi, LW, Det (F113)
187. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, G, Buf (G25)
188. Neal Pionk, D, Wpg (D49)
189. Shea Theodore, D, Vgk (D50)
190. Adam Henrique, C, Ana (F114)
191. Bowen Byram, D, Col (D51)
192. Michael Bunting, LW, Tor (F115)
193. Luke Schenn, D, Van (D52)
194. Kirby Dach, C, Mon (F116)
195. Dan Vladar, G, Cgy (0)
196. Jonas Brodin, D, Min (D53)
197. Connor Murphy, D, Chi (D54)
198. Jake Walman, D, Det (D55)
199. Owen Tippett, RW, Phi (F117)
200. Jake Sanderson, D, Ott (D56)
201. Jaccob Slavin, D, Car (D57)
202. Brock Boeser, RW, Van (F118)
203. Thatcher Demko, G, Van (G26)
204. Gabriel Vilardi, C, LA (F119)
205. Bryan Rust, RW, Pit (F120)
206. John Klingberg, D, Ana (D58)
207. T.J. Oshie, RW, Wsh (F121)
208. Brayden McNabb, D, Vgk (D59)
209. Sam Montembeault, G, Mon (G27)
210. Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Car (F122)
211. Brandon Tanev, LW, Sea (F123)
212. Matt Murray, G, Tor (G28)
213. Karel Vejmelka, G, Ari (0)
214. Dmitry Orlov, D, Wsh (D60)
215. Rafael Harvey-Pinard, LW, Mon (F124)
216. Jacob Markstrom, G, Cgy (G29)
217. Lucas Raymond, LW, Det (F125)
218. Noah Hanifin, D, Cgy (D61)
219. Evan Rodrigues, C, Col (F126)
220. Tom Wilson, RW, Wsh (F127)
221. Samuel Girard, D, Col (D62)
222. Marcus Pettersson, D, Pit (D63)
223. Adin Hill, G, Vgk (G30)
224. Frank Vatrano, LW, Ana (F128)
225. Pavel Zacha, C, Bos (F129)
226. Mark Giordano, D, Tor (D64)
227. Troy Terry, C, Ana (F130)
228. Esa Lindell, D, Dal (D65)
229. Viktor Arvidsson, RW, LA (F131)
230. Rasmus Ristolainen, D, Phi (D66)
231. Tanner Jeannot, LW, Nsh (F132)
232. J.J. Moser, D, Ari (D67)
233. John Gibson, G, Ana (G31)
234. Blake Coleman, LW, Cgy (F133)
235. Radko Gudas, D, Fla (D68)
236. Kirill Marchenko, LW, Cls (F134)
237. Ridly Greig, C, Ott (F135)
238. Victor Olofsson, RW, Buf (F136)
239. Jakub Vrana, C, Det (F137)
240. Damon Severson, D, NJ (D69)
241. Ryan O’Reilly, C, StL (F138)
242. Garnet Hathaway, RW, Wsh (F139)
243. Jonas Siegenthaler, D, NJ (D70)
244. Gustav Forsling, D, Fla (D71)
245. Mason McTavish, C, Ana (F140)
246. Mike Matheson, D, Mon (D72)
247. Jonathan Toews, C, Chi (F141)
248. Nick Blankenburg, D, Cls (D73)
249. Jordan Staal, C, Car (F142)
250. Ryan McDonagh, D, Nsh (D74)