Why this could be the committee’s easiest — or hardest — CFP selection
Joey Galloway breaks down what’s at stake for USC and Ohio State heading into conference championship weekend. (0:41)
The College Football Playoff selection committee might not even break a sweat this weekend. No lengthy debates, no Tylenol needed and early hotel checkouts all around.
No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 TCU and No. 4 USC appear one conference championship win away from locking up those coveted four spots. This will be the first time since 2017 there won’t be a top-five matchup during championship weekend, as TCU is the only team facing a top-10 CFP opponent in No. 10 Kansas State. USC has a tricky game against No. 11 Utah, but Michigan is playing unranked, four-loss Purdue.
Georgia is a heavy favorite against three-loss No. 14 LSU.
A win in their respective conference title games would punctuate their résumés with one of the tiebreakers used to separate them from the likes of No. 5 Ohio State (11-1) and No. 6 Alabama (10-2).
Even with a loss, both Georgia and Michigan seem on solid footing for a top-four finish, barring absolute meltdowns. The committee would have to balance Michigan’s win against Ohio State — arguably the best in the country — with the worst loss of any contender. It would still own the head-to-head, though against Ohio State.
The CFP is on the brink of a field that doesn’t include Ohio State, Alabama or Clemson. Let that sink in for a minute: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State have claimed 17 of the 32 playoff spots. This season, Ohio State and Alabama didn’t win their respective divisions. Their résumés are complete. At No. 9, two-loss Clemson is a playoff afterthought following its home loss to South Carolina, even if it beats three-loss North Carolina to win the ACC.
Instead of two — or three! — SEC teams, four different Power 5 conferences could be represented, with TCU and USC in position to finish in the top four for the first time in the CFP era. With USC facing Utah on Friday night, the Pac-12 will have the spotlight to itself for the one time the selection committee watches the games in-person together. Undefeated TCU will try to beat K-State for the second time this season, while USC has a chance to redeem itself from a regular-season loss to the Utes.
For the Buckeyes or Tide to creep back into the conversation, they’re going to need some help — and history says they could get it. According to ESPN’s Stats & Information research, 26 of the previous 32 teams in the top four in the second-to-last ranking have made the CFP. Five of the six that didn’t make it lost in the final weekend.
Here’s what the fifth ranking means if there are upsets when it matters the most, and how it will influence the committee on Selection Day:
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Ohio State is ready to pounce — from their couches — with an upset
With Ohio State and Alabama not playing this weekend, their positions aren’t expected to change Sunday. Since the committee deems the Buckeyes better now, they would be the first considered if a team above them loses. The easiest path would be for USC to lose to Utah, because that would be USC’s second loss to the Utes this year, making it difficult for the committee to justify the Trojans as “unequivocally” one of the four best teams in the country. They also aren’t going to reward three-loss Utah, even though the Utes just won the Pac-12 title. Instead, the door would be open for Ohio State to move into the fourth spot. It gets a little trickier, though, if the only upset is TCU losing to K-State …
Movement in the top four of the #CFBPlayoff rankings‼️
Alabama is the new No. 6 👀 pic.twitter.com/lomOz1eP2K
The biggest question looming is what happens if TCU loses? It would depend in part on how the Big 12 championship unfolds — if K-State were to win convincingly with the committee watching together, it makes it harder for them to keep the Frogs in the top four and brings Ohio State back into the conversation. TCU is currently No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, though, and it would have regular-season wins against K-State and No. 20 Texas. Those would be measured against Ohio State’s wins against No. 8 Penn State and No. 21 Notre Dame. If TCU loses a close game, and USC wins, it’s possible USC moves up to No. 3, and TCU drops to No. 4. TCU’s chances of staying in the top four increase if USC also loses, though, simply by default. That particular scenario would open the door for Alabama to also be considered. And yet …
If Alabama’s hopes are going to be resurrected, it would likely take two lopsided losses by both TCU and USC, but that still doesn’t rule out the possibility of TCU and Ohio State finishing in the top four. It helped Alabama that No. 24 Mississippi State popped into the fifth ranking, though it was basically a wash because the Bulldogs beat Ole Miss to get there, which was one of Alabama’s better wins. Alabama’s best win is at No. 20 Texas. The best news for the Tide? They were ranked ahead of both teams they lost to — No. 14 LSU and No. 7 Tennessee.
The highest-ranked conference champion from a Group of 5 league is guaranteed a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, and that will be decided at 4 p.m. ET Saturday when No. 18 Tulane hosts No. 22 UCF in the American Athletic Conference championship game. According to ESPN Analytics, Tulane has a 59% chance to win. Cincinnati fell out this week following its 27-24 loss to Tulane on Friday, and 10-2 UTSA remained unranked, leaving the AAC at the top again. — Heather Dinich
There’s a particularly poignant scene in a Season 5 episode of “The Simpsons,” in which Homer earns a spot aboard the space shuttle because his only competition for the honor got drunk on non-alcoholic champagne and flew off using a jet pack.
NASA boss: Well, Homer, I guess you’re the winner by default.
Homer: De-fault! The two sweetest words in the English language.
Indeed, it must’ve been particularly sweet for the College Football Playoff committee to watch as Ohio State, LSU, Clemson and Oregon each used Week 13 to crack open some Martinelli’s and head off into the wild, blue yonder. It made their job awfully easy.
So, if the top four is all in place by default, there’s little need for outrage, right? Perhaps we just need to dig a little deeper for this week’s Anger Index.
1. USC Trojans (ranked fourth)
Wait, didn’t we just say the top four was clear? What does USC have to be upset about?
The Trojans’ ranking is fine. They’re the top-ranked one-loss team. The problem is, with the committee putting Penn State at No. 8, the margin of error for USC in the Pac-12 championship game just shrunk substantially.
Step back and look at the résumés. USC now has wins over No. 15 Oregon State, No. 17 UCLA and No. 21 Notre Dame. Its lone loss came by a point to No. 11 Utah. That’s a really solid sales pitch to the committee.
Ohio State’s sales pitch? A less impressive win over Notre Dame and a road victory over Penn State.
With both teams 11-1, there’s no question who should be No. 4. But assume USC loses again to Utah in the Pac-12 title game, while Ohio State sits home and watches. What happens then? Would the committee really punish the Trojans for playing an extra game and put the Buckeyes into the playoff?
The best case for doing that would be simple: Ohio State beat the No. 8 team in the country on the road. USC wouldn’t have a win that good. And it might be a valid enough argument, except for this one small flaw: Who has Penn State beaten? The answer is… no one in this top 25. The Nittany Lions’ best win came in Week 1 against Purdue in a game in which they trailed into the final minute of action. Every other team ranked in the top nine has at least two wins over other teams in the top 25.
So, if it comes down to Ohio State’s win over Penn State pushing the Buckeyes into the top four next week, it’ll be an awfully thin margin that got them there.
2. Tennessee Volunteers (ranked seventh)