College football Week 10 betting trends: Why history favors Tennessee over Georgia
Week 10 of the 2022 College Football season features plenty of AP-Top 25 teams in action as the College Football Playoff race begins to heat up in November. While there are only three ranked vs. ranked matchups this week perhaps none will be bigger than the two SEC conference games this weekend when Tennessee hits the road to face Georgia and Alabama heads to Tiger Stadium take on LSU.
With plenty of questions and games to wager on this weekend, and we have everything you need to make your betting decisions ahead of Week 10.
Check out all of the notes and trends courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.
Rankings are from AP-25 poll before College Football Playoff Rankings are revealed
No. 24 Oregon State at Washington (-4.5, 60)
10:30 p.m. ET, Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington
Washington has failed to cover each of its last four games.
Washington is 4-1 ATS at home this season.
Oregon State is 10-3 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2019 season, the 2nd-best such cover percentage in the Pac-12 over that span.
Each of the last three meetings between Oregon State and Washington have gone under the total.
No. 2 Ohio State (-38, 62.5) at Northwestern
noon ET on ABC, Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois
Northwestern has failed to cover each of its last four home games.
Ohio State has gone over the total in six consecutive games, tied with Wisconsin for the longest active over streak in the FBS.
Ohio State is 17-4-2 to the over in road games since the start of the 2017 season, the highest road over percentage in the FBS over that span (min. 4 road games).
This is the largest favorite Ohio State has been against Northwestern since 1983 (-40).
Texas Tech at No. 7 TCU (-10, 71)
noon ET, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
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TCU is 6-1-1- ATS this season, tied for the 3rd-best cover percentage in the FBS.
All four of TCU’s home games have gone over the total this season.
Texas Tech is 3-0 ATS following a straight-up loss this season.
Four of Texas Tech’s five games against AP-ranked opponents went over the total this season.
No. 17 North Carolina (-9.5, 59.5) at Virginia
noon ET on ACC Network, Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Virginia
Virginia is 1-6-1 to the over this season, which is tied with Georgia Tech for the lowest over percentage in the ACC this season.
Each of the last four meetings between North Carolina and Virginia have gone over the total.
Virginia is 4-1 ATS as home underdogs since the start of the 2018 season.
North Carolina has covered four of its last five games in ACC play.
No. 19 Tulane (-7.5, 58) at Tulsa
noon ET on ESPNU, Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, Oklahoma
Tulane is 7-1 ATS this season, tied with Tennessee for the best cover percentage in the FBS.
Tulsa is 11-0 ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of the 2018 season, tied for the best such cover percentage in the FBS over that span.
Tulsa is 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2020 season, the 4th-best cover percentage as an underdog in the FBS over that span.
Tulsa has covered 13 of its last 17 games against Tulane.
No. 2 Tennessee at No. 1 Georgia (-9, 65.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia
Tennessee is 7-1 ATS this season, tied with Tulane for the best cover percentage in the FBS.
No top-2 team has been at least an eight-point underdog since the 2020 ACC Championship Game (No. 2 Notre Dame was +11 against No. 4 Clemson; Clemson won by 24).
Then nine-point spread is the largest spread in a 1-vs-2 matchup since 2013 when No. 1 Florida State was a 9-point favorite over No. 2 Auburn in the BCS Championship Game; FSU won by 3.
Underdogs in 1-vs-2 matchups are 24-12-1 ATS and 20-17 outright since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, including 4-0 ATS in the last 10 seasons (2-2 SU).
Underdogs of at least 7 points in 1-vs-2 matchups are 8-2 ATS and 6-4 SU since 1978 (1-2 ATS and SU last 15 seasons).
No. 8 Oregon (-31.5, 60.5) at Colorado
3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Folsom Field, Boulder, Colorado
Colorado is 0-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
Colorado is 3-0 ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of last season.
Oregon has covered each of its last three games (all as a favorite).
Oregon is 5-2-1 ATS this season, the 2nd-best cover percentage in the Pac-12.
Michigan State at No. 14 Illinois (-16, 43.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois
Illinois is 7-2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of the 2015 season.
Illinois is 4-1 ATS at home this season and has covered five of its last six games overall.
Michigan State has covered nine of its last 12 meetings with Illinois.
Michigan State is 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
No. 16 Penn State (-13.5, 54.5) at Indiana
3:30 p.m. on ABC, Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana
Indiana is 1-6 ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of last season.
Indiana is 3-11 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, the worst cover percentage in the Big Ten as an underdog over that span (min. 2 games).
Penn State is 8-22-1 ATS following a straight-up loss under James Franklin, the worst such cover percentage in the FBS since the start of the 2014 season (min. 2 games played following a straight-up loss).
Penn State has gone over the total in each of its last three games.
No. 18 Oklahoma State (-3.5, 69) at Kansas
3:30 p.m. ET, David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, Kansas
Kansas is 6-1-1- ATS this season, tied for the 3rd-best cover percentage in the FBS.
Oklahoma State has covered each of its past four games against Kansas.
Oklahoma State is 7-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season. That’s the best road cover percentage in the FBS over that span.
Oklahoma State is 11-2-1 ATS in Big-12 play since the start of last season, the best such cover percentage in the Big 12 over that span.
No. 22 Syracuse at Pittsburgh (-3.5, 50.5)
3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS at home this season, tied for the worst home cover percentage in the ACC.
Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
Each of the last three meetings between Syracuse and Pittsburgh have gone under the total.
Syracuse is 6-2 ATS this season, tied with Wake Forest for the best cover percentage in the ACC.
No. 25 UCF (-3.5, 61.5) at Memphis
3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
Memphis has covered each of its past six games as a home underdog.
Memphis is 7-1 to the over this season, tied for the highest over percentage in the FBS.
Memphis is 1-7 ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of the 2019 season.
UCF has gone over the total in nine of its past 12 road games.
No. 23 Liberty at Arkansas (-14, 64.5)
4 p.m. ET on SEC Network, Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas
Arkansas has gone over the total in all four home games this season.
Arkansas is 7-1 to the over this season, tied for the highest over percentage in the FBS.
Liberty has gone over the total in all four road games this season.
Liberty is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2020 season.
No. 6 Alabama (-13, 58) at No. 15 LSU
7 p.m. ET on ESPN, Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
LSU is 5-0 ATS following a bye week since the start of the 2019 season.
LSU is 15-4-1 ATS against AP Top-10 teams since the start of the 2017 season.
Alabama has covered four of its last five games as a double-digit favorite.
Alabama has been favored in 15 consecutive games against LSU (12-3 SU, 9-6 ATS).
Texas (-1.5, 54.5) at No. 13 Kansas State
7 p.m. ET, Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas
Texas is 1-6 ATS in road games since the start of last season. That’s the worst road cover percentage in the Big 12 over that span.
Texas has covered its last three games following a straight-up loss.
Kansas State is 4-1 ATS at home this season.
Kansas State is 16-6 ATS as a home underdog over the past 10 seasons, the best such cover percentage in the Big 12 over that span.
No. 4 Michigan (-26.5, 45.5) at Rutgers
7:30 p.m. ET, SHI Stadium, Piscataway, New Jersey
Michigan is 1-6-1 to the over this season, the lowest over percentage in the Big Ten.
Rutgers is 1-4 ATS as a home underdog since the start of last season.
Seven of the last eight meetings between Michigan and Rutgers have gone over the total.
Michigan is 20-12 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2019 season, tied with Minnesota for the best such cover percentage in the Big Ten over that span.
No. 5 Clemson (-3.5, 47.5) at Notre Dame
7:30 p.m. ET, Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Indiana
Notre Dame has failed to cover a game at home this season (0-4 ATS).
This is just the 7th time Notre Dame has been a home underdog since 2014. They are 5-1 ATS in the previous six instances.
Notre Dame is 3-0 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
Clemson is 15-7 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2018 season.
Arizona at No. 12 Utah (-17.5, 67.5)
7:30 p.m. ET, Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah
Utah is 4-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season.
Utah has failed to cover each of its last three games.
Arizona is 4-0 ATS following a straight-up loss this season.
Arizona has gone over the total in all three of its road games this season
No. 20 Wake Forest (-3.5, 54) at No. 21 NC State
8 p.m. ET on ACC Network, Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, North Carolina
Wake Forest is 6-2 ATS this season, tied with Syracuse for the best cover percentage in the ACC.
Wake Forest has covered each of its past four games following a straight-up loss.
Wake Forest is 16-5 against AP-ranked teams since the start of the 2015 season.
NC State has failed to cover each of its last five games.
No. 10 UCLA (-10.5, 62) at Arizona State
9:30 p.m. ET, Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Arizona
Arizona State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games against AP top-10 opponents, including four outright wins (one against No. 7 UCLA in 2015).
The 7-1 ATS record vs AP top-10 opponents is tied with Minnesota for the best cover percentage in the FBS (min. 5 games).
UCLA is 4-1 SU and ATS this season in Pac-12 play, the only loss coming Oct. 22 at then No. 10 Oregon as a 7-point underdog.
Arizona State is 13-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog in the last 10 seasons, which is the second-best cover percentage in the FBS (min. 15 games).
UCLA had covered the spread in four straight games against Arizona State until last year, when it lost outright as a three-point home favorite.
California at No. 9 USC (-12, 58)
10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
California is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog in the last five seasons, which is tied for the best cover percentage in the FBS with Oklahoma State (min. 10 games).
USC is 7-11 ATS as a 21-point favorite since Pete Carroll left after the 2009 season, which is tied for the 6th-worst cover percentage in the FBS over that span (min. 15 games).
The under has hit in 14 of the last 17 games in this series.
The over has hit in each of USC’s three games this season against teams that entered with a losing record.
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