Are the Vikings for real? Their 6-1 record makes it hard to deny
K.J. Osborn does a nice job to reel in the touchdown catch as the Vikings pad their lead to 34-26 vs. the Cardinals. (0:16)
EAGAN, Minn. — How long can we ask if a team is “for real” before its record leaves no doubt? The Minnesota Vikings are approaching that territory after improving to 6-1 with a 34-26 victory Sunday over the Arizona Cardinals.
Regardless of how it’s happening, or against whom, the Vikings now have a better record than all but two teams in the NFL. They have a four-game lead in the loss column over their NFC North division rivals, with one victory apiece against each of them, and ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them a 95.3% chance to make the playoffs. In a league with 20 teams that have between three and five wins, the Vikings are one of a handful that have mathematically separated themselves during the first two months of the 2022 season.
Whether anyone has noticed, or cares, is almost irrelevant at this point.
“I just hate that people are still not talking about us,” linebacker Za’Darius Smith said. “But it’s OK. We’ll continue to be the underdogs and keep going to work each and every day to get better.”
The truth is the Vikings have been FPI underdogs in only two of their seven games and none of the past five. FPI favors them in six of their final 10 games, a path that would leave them 12-5 this season. But as with many winning teams, there are reasons to question whether they can maintain their current pace.
They’ve won five one-possession games without a loss through seven games, a path so rare it has happened only four other times in the past 20 years around the NFL. They’ve overcome fourth-quarter deficits in three of their wins. Quarterback Kirk Cousins‘ 51.4 Total QBR ranks No. 16 in the NFL and below all but one of the NFL’s eight division leaders. Their defense has allowed the NFL’s seventh-worst QBR (54.4). The Vikings have been largely injury-free but are walking a tightrope with seven starters aged 30 or older, as well as a shallow rotation that features only 28 players getting regular offensive or defensive snaps.
But the Vikings finding ways to win has covered for that and built a sort of playoff equity. Of the 25 teams to start 6-1 since the 2002 divisional realignment, 20 have made the playoffs. And no 6-1 team has missed the playoffs since the 2020 playoff expansion to 14 teams.
So even if the Vikings regress toward the NFL mean, a not-inconceivable direction given upcoming games against the Buffalo Bills (7-1) and Dallas Cowboys (6-2) over the next three weeks, they’ll still have a clear path to the postseason. Even if they fall two games back of their FPI per-game expectations, and lose six of their final 10 games, they’ll still finish with a 10-7 record. Based on the current state of the NFC North, that might well be enough for a division title.
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For that reason, veteran players are preaching the significance of what’s already happened. Cousins, in 10 previous seasons, has never been 6-1. His teams have had winning records after seven games only twice. Cornerback Patrick Peterson has more often been 1-6 (twice) than 6-1 or better (once) in 11 previous seasons.
“You just want to soak up these moments,” Peterson said, “and soak up these memories. Because … they don’t come around very often. That’s why I tell these guys time in and time out: Enjoy the moment. Embrace the moment and trust the process as well.”
Speaking Monday, defensive tackle Harrison Phillips bemoaned “how many times in history you can go back and look at fantastic starts to a season that came up short.” They’re not as frequent as Phillips might guess, but it would be understandable for longtime Minnesota fans to feel a bit apprehensive.
One of the five teams since 2002 that missed the playoffs after a 6-1 start was the 2003 Vikings. That group opened the season with six consecutive wins before losing its next four and then two of its next five.
Still, the 2003 Vikings entered the final week of the regular season with a 9-6 record and needed only to win at the 3-12 Cardinals to clinch an NFC North title and playoff berth. In a legendary finish, Cardinals quarterback Josh McCown threw a 28-yard touchdown pass to receiver Nate Poole on the game’s final play to win 18-17.
But that’s the kind of collapse it would likely take for the Vikings to miss the playoffs. A more optimistic view of history would note that of the five previous teams to do what the Vikings have done so far in 2022 — win five one-possession games over their first seven without a loss — three made the Super Bowl: the 2015 Denver Broncos, the 2006 Indianapolis Colts and the 2003 Carolina Panthers.
Perhaps most importantly, the Vikings’ veteran roster provides a default understanding of the rare nature of the team’s current state.
“And if you don’t know what it looks like,” Peterson said, “follow me. Because I’m going to show you energy, passion and a desire to go out there and want to win [games]. And everybody else follow.”