College football betting trends: Why history doesn’t favor the Volunteers
Week 7 of the college football season brings some of the most high-profile games of the year.
There are five matchups of teams in the AP Top 25 including two games between teams ranked within the top 10. Three games pit undefeated powerhouses against each other in three Power 5 conferences.
No. 10 Penn State travels to Ann Arbor to face No. 5 Michigan in yet another test for the Wolverines. Spencer Sanders and No. 8 Oklahoma State will face Max Duggan and the No. 13 TCU Horned Frogs in an intense Big-12 battle. And of course, we have the highly-anticipated showdown between No. 3 Alabama and No. 6 Tennessee.
There’s plenty of games to wager on this weekend and we have everything you need to make your wagering decisions ahead of Week 7.
Check out all of the betting notes and trends courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.
No. 10 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan (-7, 52)
12 p.m. ET, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan
Michigan is 5-0-1 to the under this season, tied with Colorado State and Georgia Tech for the most unders without an over in the FBS this season.
Michigan is 5-12 ATS against AP Top-10 teams under Jim Harbaugh. Stanford was 3-1 ATS in such games under Harbaugh.
Michigan hasn’t been a bigger favorite against an AP Top-10 team since Oct. 1, 2016 vs then No. 8 Wisconsin (-11).
Penn State is 2-6 ATS against Michigan under James Franklin, and 0-5 ATS as an underdog.
Auburn at No. 9 Ole Miss (-14, 54.5)
12 p.m. ET on ESPN, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
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Auburn is 1-5 ATS this season, the worst cover percentage in the SEC.
Each of the last four games between Auburn and Ole Miss have gone under the total by an average of 15.9 PPG
Since the start of the 2020 season, Auburn is 9-2 to the under on the road, tied with Oklahoma State for the highest under percentage on the road in the FBS over that span.
Ole Miss is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite this season, tied with Florida for the 3rd-worst such cover percentage in the SEC.
No. 19 Kansas at Oklahoma (-7.5, 64.5)
12 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Memorial Stadium, Norman, Oklahoma
Kansas is 5-0-1 ATS this season, tied with TCU and James Madison for the best cover percentage in the FBS this season.
Kansas is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.
Oklahoma has not covered against a team with a winning record this season (0-3 ATS).
Oklahoma has failed to cover in four of its last five games against Kansas.
Iowa State at No. 22 Texas (-16.5, 49.5)
12 p.m. ET on ABC, DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
Texas is 4-0 ATS at home this season and is one of two teams in the FBS with four home cover wins.
Iowa State is 9-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Matt Campbell.
This is the most Texas has been favored by against Iowa State since 2010 (-21).
Each of the last seven games between Iowa State and Texas have gone under the total.
Minnesota (-6.5) at No. 24 Illinois
12 p.m. ET, Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS this season and 3-0 ATS as a road favorite since the start of last season.
Minnesota is 8-2 ATS on the road since the start of the 2020 season, the best road cover percentage in the FBS over that span (min. 10 road games).
Since the start of the 2019 season, Minnesota is 9-1 ATS when playing after six or more days of rest (had a bye in Week 6).
Illinois has covered each of its last three games as an underdog.
Vanderbilt at No. 1 Georgia (-38, 58.5)
3:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network, Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia
Vanderbilt is 0-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog and against AP-ranked opponents this season.
Since the start of the 2017 season, Vanderbilt is 0-7 ATS against AP Top-5 opponents.
Georgia has covered each of its last four games against Vanderbilt.
Georgia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.
No. 3 Alabama (-7.5, 65.5) at No. 6 Tennessee
3:30 p.m. ET, Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
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Alabama has been a favorite in 77 straight regular-season games against FBS opponents (excluding conference champ games), tied for the longest such streak since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.
Alabama is 11-4 ATS against Tennessee under Nick Saban.
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS against AP Top-5 teams since the start of the 2020 season.
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS as an underdog under Josh Heupel, the worst such cover percentage in the SEC since the start of the 2021 season.
No. 8 Oklahoma State at No. 13 TCU (-3.5, 68.5)
3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
TCU is 4-0-1 ATS this season, tied with Kansas and James Madison for the best cover percentage in the FBS.
Oklahoma State is 9-1-1 ATS in Big 12 play since the start of last season, the best such cover percentage in the Big 12 over that span.
Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS on the road since the start of last season. That’s tied with Pittsburgh for the best road cover percentage over that span (min. 5 road games).
Oklahoma State is 15-4-1 ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of the 2018 season. That’s the best such cover percentage in the Big 12 over that span.
No. 15 NC State at No. 18 Syracuse (-3.5, 44.5)
3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network, JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, New York
Since the start of the 2019 season, NC State is 4-13 ATS on the road. That’s the 2nd-worst road cover percentage in the FBS over that span.
NC State is 3-9 ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of the 2017 season.
Syracuse is 4-1 ATS this season, the 2nd-best cover percentage in the ACC.
Syracuse is 6-0 ATS in October since the start of last season, the best cover percentage in the FBS in October over that span (min. 3 games).
No. 25 James Madison (-10.5, 66.5) at Georgia Southern
4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, Georgia
James Madison is 5-0 ATS this season, tied with TCU and Kansas for the best cover percentage in the FBS this season.
James Madison is 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season.
James Madison is 2-0 ATS on the road this season.
Georgia Southern is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games as a double-digit underdog.
No. 4 Clemson (-3.5. 51) at Florida State
4 p.m. ET on ABC, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
Clemson has covered each of its last four games against Florida State.
Clemson is 13-7 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2020 season.
Clemson has covered six of its last seven ACC games.
Florida State is 3-0 ATS against AP Top-10 teams since the start of the 2020 season.
No. 16 Mississippi State (-7, 46.5) at No. 22 Kentucky
7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network, Kroger Field, Lexington, Kentucky
Kentucky is 0-4 ATS following a straight-up loss since the start of last season.
Kentucky is 4-0-1 ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of last season.
Kentucky has gone under the total in five of its six games this season.
Mississippi State has covered five of its last six road games.
No. 7 USC at No. 20 Utah (-3.5, 63)
8 p.m. ET, Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah
USC is 3-12 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2015 season, the 3rd-worst such cover percentage in the FBS over that span.
Utah is 3-0 ATS at home this season.
Utah is 11-2 ATS in October since the start of the 2018 season, the best such October cover percentage in the FBS over that span (min. 10 games).
Utah is 24-11 ATS in Pac-12 play since the start of the 2018 season, the best such cover percentage in the Pac-12 over that span.
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