NFL Week 2 betting notes: Can Brady beat the Saints?
Week 2 features rare favorites and wide lines. After Week 1 did not feature a single spread over seven points, Week 2 boasts six teams favored by more than a touchdown. Five of those six large favorites lost their Week 1 games, including the Green Bay Packers. Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 9-0 outright and ATS following a loss.
The Detroit Lions and New York Giants are both favored by less than a field goal, snapping long streaks of futility. The Lions had been underdogs in 24 straight games, the longest streak the franchise has had in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). Meanwhile, the Giants have been underdogs in 15 straight games, the second-longest active streak in the NFL.
On the other side, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys are home underdogs on the same day for the first time since 1990. The Steelers are the only team in the NFL with a winning record as an underdog since Mike Tomlin’s 2007 debut (37-33).
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday
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Kansas City is 20-11 ATS in September under Andy Reid.
Kansas City is 15-9 ATS in 24 divisional games started by Patrick Mahomes, including 4-1 ATS in the past five.
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its past seven Thursday night games, including 3-1 ATS in games started by Mahomes.
The Chargers are 6-3 ATS as a road underdog in games started by Justin Herbert.
Justin Herbert is 4-1 ATS as an underdog of at least 3.5 points, including an outright win in Kansas City last season (+7).
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (-2.5), 1 p.m. ET Sunday
The Giants have been an underdog in 15 straight games entering this week, the second-longest active streak in the NFL, behind only the Lions (24). The Lions are also favored this week.
The Panthers are 5-13 ATS in the past two seasons, tied with the Jaguars for the worst mark in the NFL, including 2-13 ATS in their past 15 games.
The Giants are 4-10-1 ATS in their past 15 as a favorite.
The Giants are 7-4 ATS all time against Carolina, and covered each of the past three meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
The Buccaneers are 1-7 ATS in their past eight against the Saints, including going 0-4 ATS and outright with Tom Brady at quarterback.
The Saints are 13-7 ATS in their past 20 as a home underdog.
Buccaneers are 8-10 ATS as a road favorite since the start 2020, including 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU).
The Saints are 11-4 ATS in their past 15 against divisional opponents.
The Saints are 3-0 ATS as an underdog with Jameis Winston under center.
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5), 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its past 10 against Miami.
Miami is 13-6-1 ATS in its past 20 as an underdog.
Miami is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games dating back to last season.
The Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 as a favorite of at least three points with Lamar Jackson as the starting QB. Jackson is 10-15 ATS as a home favorite of at least three points, including playoffs.
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-6), 1 p.m. ET Sunday
The Jets are 5-15 ATS in their past 20 as a road underdog.
The Jets are 6-12 ATS under Robert Saleh, including 2-6 ATS on the road.
The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their past 10 September games, and failed to cover each of the past seven. They have lost 13 straight September games outright.
Joe Flacco is 2-15 outright and 6-11 ATS in his past 17 starts. He is 0-6 outright (2-4 ATS) with the Jets.
Browns are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 as a favorite, and failed to cover each of the past five.
Jacoby Brissett is 8-5 ATS as a starting QB when favored. He has been a favorite of at least six points only once in his career (beat the Panthers as a seven-point favorite in 2019).
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-2.5), 1 p.m. ET Sunday
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The Lions have played 24 consecutive games as an underdog, the longest active streak in the NFL.
The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 following an outright loss.
The Commanders are 1-5 ATS in their past six meetings with the Lions, and they’ve been underdogs in each of the past five.
The under is 10-4-1 in the past 15 meetings between these teams.
Carson Wentz is 5-0 ATS (4-1 outright) in his past five as a road underdog.
Indianapolis Colts (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Jacksonville is 12-1-1 ATS in its past 14 meetings against the Colts. The Jaguars have won and covered seven straight home meetings with four straight wins as at least a four-point home underdog, including a win as a 14-point underdog in Week 18 last season.
The Colts are 18-11 ATS as road favorites since 2012.
The Jaguars are 6-14 ATS in their past 20 as an underdog.
The Colts are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 against division opponents.
New England Patriots (-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
The Steelers are 44-24-2 ATS as underdogs under Mike Tomlin (37-33 outright). Since Tomlin’s first season in 2007, the Steelers are the only team over .500 outright as an underdog.
Mike Tomlin is 14-4-1 ATS as a home underdog, including playoffs (12-7 outright).
Bill Belichick is 59-33 ATS after a loss (8-7 ATS since Tom Brady left New England).
The Patriots are 6-3-1 ATS in their past 10 meetings against Steelers.
The Steelers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 conference games.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-10), 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday
Seattle is 18-7 ATS against San Francisco under Pete Carroll, including playoffs. Carroll is 6-4 ATS against Kyle Shanahan, including 3-1 ATS and outright as an underdog.
The Seahawks are 12-3 ATS in their past 15 games not started by Russell Wilson.
San Francisco is 3-8-1 ATS (8-4 SU) under Kyle Shanahan when favored by at least seven points.
The 49ers are 6-16-1 ATS as home favorites under Kyle Shanahan.
The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their past five off an outright loss.
Since 2000, teams favored by at least 7.5 points in Week 2 following a Week 1 loss are 20-2 outright, though they are just 7-15 ATS.
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-10.5), 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday
The Rams are 16-8 ATS under Sean McVay after an outright loss, including 6-4 ATS over the past two seasons.
The Rams are 7-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite under Sean McVay, and are 1-4 ATS in their past five.
Over the past 10 seasons (since 2013), teams that play the opening Thursday game are 15-3 outright and 12-6 ATS in Week 2.
Since 2010, winless teams are 6-2 ATS when laying at least 10 points.
As seen above, since 2000, teams favored by at least 7.5 points in Week 2 following a Week 1 loss are 20-2 outright, though they are just 7-15 ATS.
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday
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The Cowboys are 6-6 ATS under Mike McCarthy in games started by QBs other than Dak Prescott. They are 4-1 ATS in their past five.
Dallas is 7-3 ATS in its past 10 off an outright loss, and went 4-1 ATS in such games last season.
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its past seven on the road. Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its past eight as a home underdog.
Cincinnati is 1-4 outright and ATS in its past five games as a road favorite of at least seven points. The only other time the Bengals were in this spot under Zac Taylor, they lost outright to the Jets as 11.5-point road favorites.
As seen above, since 2000, teams favored by at least 7.5 points in Week 2 following a Week 1 loss are 20-2 outright, though they are just 7-15 ATS.
Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders (-6), 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday
The Cardinals have won each of their past six road games outright when they were an underdog, one shy of matching the 1980-81 Seahawks for the longest such win streak in the Super Bowl era.
The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS and outright in their past 10 as a road underdog, having won each of the past six outright
The Cardinals are 17-7-1 ATS (.708 cover pct) on the road under Kliff Kingsbury, tied with Buffalo’s Sean McDermott for the best road cover percentage of any active coach since he arrived in 2019.
The Raiders are 7-13 ATS in their past 20 following a loss.
Las Vegas is 1-9 ATS in its past 10 as a favorite.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-10), 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday
Denver is 11-4 ATS in its past 15 as a double-digit favorite.
The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in the month of September since the start of 2020.
Texans are 4-1 ATS in their past five as a double-digit underdog.
The under is 11-4 in the Texans’ past 15 road games.
As seen above, since 2000, teams favored by at least 7.5 points in Week 2 following a Week 1 loss are 20-2 outright, though they are just 7-15 ATS.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10), 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday
Green Bay is 9-0 outright and ATS after a loss under Matt LaFleur. The Packers have both covered and won outright in each of their past 11 games following a straight-up loss. That is the most consecutive covers after a loss since the Colts covered 13 straight after a loss from 2011 to 2013.
Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 32-18 ATS overall and 17-7 ATS at home, both the best marks in the league in that span.
Green Bay is 14-9 ATS in its past 19 as a home favorite.
The Bears are 3-12 ATS in their past 15 against division opponents.
The Bears are 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 as double-digit underdogs.
The Packers are 6-0 ATS (6-0 SU) in their past six Sunday night games.
As seen above, since 2000, teams favored by at least 7.5 points in Week 2 following a Week 1 loss are 20-2 outright, though they are just 7-15 ATS.
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-10), 7:15 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
If the line holds, it’ll mark the eighth time the Bills have been a double-digit favorite since the start of last season, which trails only the Buccaneers (10). Buffalo is 4-1-2 ATS (6-1 SU) in the previous seven such games.
Tennessee is 8-1 outright and 7-2 ATS in its past nine games following a loss.
The Bills are 10-3-2 ATS in their past 15 as double-digit favorites.
The Titans are 7-0 ATS in their past seven games off more than six days’ rest.
The Bills are 1-4 ATS (1-4 SU) in their past five Monday night games.
Over the past 10 seasons (since 2013), teams that play the opening Thursday game are 15-3 outright and 12-6 ATS in Week 2.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5), 8:30 p.m. ET Monday (ABC)
Kirk Cousins is 2-9 outright and ATS on Monday Night Football, though he has won and covered his past two games. He is 0-6 ATS as an underdog on Monday Night Football.
Since 2010, the Vikings are 0-7 ATS as an underdog on Monday Night Football.
Since 2020, Vikings games are 22-11-1 to the over (.667), the best mark in the NFL.
The Eagles are 3-12 ATS in their past 15 games played in the month of September.
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