Recurring energy crisis requires bold solutions
Credit to Author: The Manila Times| Date: Sat, 22 Feb 2020 17:07:20 +0000
The summer season has not yet arrived, but we already hear warnings of a likely power supply shortage in the coming months. The Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMop) reported that people in Luzon and the Visayas may face a shortage of up to 1,200 megawatts (MW) in May and June. A few days earlier, the National Electrification Administration (NEA) issued a similar warning, saying that consumers in Luzon might face rotating brownouts between April and May.
The announcement from IEMop, which operates the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market, cited forecasts from the Department of Energy. It predicted peak demand in Luzon to reach 12,285 MW in May, more than 8 percent from the peak demand in May 2019.
Basically, the problem is demand growing faster than supply. The government’s Power Development Plan 2017 to 2040 forecasts that the demand for electricity will grow 5 percent annually. By 2040, demand is predicted to reach 49,287 MW. And between now and then, the country needs 43,765 MW of additional capacity to come online.
Actually, we find the estimates somewhat conservative, given the country’s pace of economic growth. But, even if we concede that the Energy department’s forecasts are adequate, the country still faces a large supply gap that cannot be resolved by palliative measures.
For instance, there have been calls for consumers to conserve. But the problem is too large to be addressed by such measures alone, even with the residential sector accounting for about 28 percent of total consumption both in Luzon and the Visayas. In Mindanao, the share is 30 percent. Besides, more should be done to reduce system loss. It accounts for about 8 percent of total consumption in Luzon, and 12 percent each in the Visayas and Mindanao.
Besides conservation, we simply need more power. Probably the most affordable energy source is coal. But, it may be the least acceptable, given the concerns over pollution.
Imagine, the largest coal-fired power plant is in Sual, Pangasinan, and it can generate 1,000 MW. For many, it may be unacceptable to build 43 more plants like Sual by 2040 just to meet the forecast demand. For sure, there will be a need for more coal plants in the future but, hopefully, not as many.
The cleaner but more expensive option is renewable energy. Certainly, that should be part of the total energy mix, but the country’s problem is baseload supply. Windmills cannot produce energy when the wind is not blowing, nor can solar panels work when the sun is not shining.
Hydropower power plants can help meet the baseload shortage. But like coal, it bears a heavy environmental cost. A cleaner option may be geothermal. But with the recent eruption of Taal Volcano still fresh in our minds, that may be a hard sell for some.
Consider all alternatives
Another option, albeit a politically charged one, is to consider nuclear power. As we said before in this space, we are not for the retrofitting of the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant. It was designed and built using outdated technology.
We should close the chapter on the Bataan power plant, and instead, consider newer technology that is not only more efficient but also safer. Given the country’s large power-supply gap, all options should be seriously considered. That mothballed plant should not be the default choice when considering nuclear power alternatives.
For sure, the nuclear option is a divisive issue. Even our editorial board struggles in reaching a consensus on this. But no one can argue for the need to attract greater national attention to the recurring crisis of power supply.
Energy security should not only be a topic for the summer, when warnings of outages rattle the public and policymakers alike. The country needs more energy to fuel its growth, pun intended. Incidentally, generating more supply should also address the issue of high electricity prices. Supply and demand, remember?
Obviously, constructing power plants take a long time. And that only underscores the need for urgency. Unless action is taken soon, the issue of deficient power supply will remain a threat for many summers to come. Worse, it may threaten our growth prospects.