Bubble Watch 2020: Five SEC teams on the edge
Editor’s note: The NCAA tournament Bubble Watch has been updated through Sunday’s games.
Few conferences enter the home stretch of the season facing a wider range of NCAA tournament scenarios than the SEC does. Theoretically, the league could be represented by as few as three teams: Auburn, Kentucky and LSU. Conversely, the SEC could, in theory, send as many as eight teams.
That’s one way of saying that no fewer than five SEC teams can be classed as being on the bubble. Start with Florida, the safest of the league’s bubble members.
The Gators appear to be on relatively solid ground for now, but there’s a good deal of basketball still to be played. Mike White’s team is looking to make its fourth consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. Only UK carries a longer streak (seven, including 2020) among SEC programs.
After Florida, things become more treacherous for SEC teams. Arkansas has had a rough February all in all, as the Razorbacks have tumbled all the way from a projected No. 8 seed to the brink of elimination.
Alabama started the month as a Bubble Watch team, fell out of these hallowed precincts and then returned on the strength of a win at home over LSU. Nate Oats’ men have work to do, but they are at least in the picture.
Mississippi State has also been on the edge of the bubble for the better part of a month. The Bulldogs swept the season series with Arkansas and recorded a win at Florida yet have been unable, thus far, to stick in the projected field of 68.
Not to be outdone, South Carolina lurks on the fringes of this discussion, thanks to a win at home over Kentucky and road victories at Virginia and Arkansas. The Gamecocks are a long shot to make the tournament, but their odds are at least better than they were previously.
Add it all up, and the SEC can claim the most heavily populated “Work to do” section of any conference. The league is clearly hosting its fair share of bubble drama in 2020.
Here’s our current projection of the bubble:
Bids from traditional “one-bid” leagues: 21 teams
Locks: 15 teams
The bubble: 45 teams for 32 available spots
Should be in: 18 teams
Work to do: 27 teams
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Locks: Duke, Florida State, Louisville
Jason Fitz and Joe Lunardi dive deep into the methodology and madness that goes into predicting who will cut down the nets in March. Lunardi breaks down his bracket predictions and gives unique insights into life on the bubble. Watch on ESPN+
Tomas Woldetensae hit the winning 3 with 0.8 seconds left and Virginia escaped North Carolina with a 64-62 road win. We’ve reached a strange historical moment when losing in Chapel Hill would have been at risk of being labeled a bad loss, but that’s now a moot point as far as the Cavaliers are concerned. Tony Bennett’s team, with a NET ranking in the mid-50s, will continue to roam the boundary line between a No. 12 seed and the NIT until further notice.
Right, the Watch has been referring to this upcoming stretch of the Wolfpack schedule for a while now, and it’s finally here. NC State hosts Duke this week, tipping off a stretch of games that will determine whether Kevin Keatts’ team will make the tournament. If the selection were made today, the Wolfpack would likely fall short. A 16-9 record and a NET ranking in the low 60s probably would not close that deal, even with wins at Virginia and at home against Wisconsin taken into consideration. But a win (much less two) against the Blue Devils could change things, as could one against Florida State. NC State still has a shot at playing its way into the field.
Locks: Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia
The Texas Tech defense is ranked No. 4 in Big 12 play, and it looks odd. The Red Raiders allowed Oklahoma State to rebound more than half of its missed shots, and the result was a three-point loss in Stillwater. For the season, Chris Beard’s defense has allowed conference opponents to score 0.93 points per possession, a great-looking number in any normal context but a far cry from what we’re seeing this season from the Kansas D (0.88). By itself, this latest defeat on the road won’t imperil an expected No. 6 seed, and the Raiders can still move up in the bracket with opportunities looming at the end of the season against Baylor (in Waco) and Kansas (at home).
There’s no shame in losing at Kansas, not even in losing by 17 in Lawrence. Oklahoma will hold steady as a likely No. 9 seed, and the Sooners still have an aesthetically pleasing profile built around a win at home over West Virginia and one on a neutral floor against Minnesota. OU plays a low-turnover brand of ball, one that showcased Kristian Doolittle in a losing cause at KU. The senior’s 27 points hold the distinction of being the best game any opposing player has had against the Jayhawks this season.
Lock: Seton Hall
While mocks are still squabbling over whether Jay Wright’s team will be a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, Collin Gillespie sank seven 3s and led Villanova to a 76-56 win at Big 5 rival Temple. Wright’s history and the presence of scorers like Gillespie and Saddiq Bey (who drained eight 3s in his own right earlier this season against Georgetown) keeps leading us to suspect that the big Nova explosion on offense will surely happen any day now. Perhaps that will indeed occur (though this is still merely the No. 4-ranked offense in Big East play), but, in any event, Villanova will soon be a lock.
Here’s a rare peek behind the curtain at Watch HQ: Butler would be a lock right now had the Bulldogs won their home game against Georgetown. Instead, LaVall Jordan’s men went out and lost by seven thanks to giving up a normal-looking 73 points in an exceptionally slow-paced (58-possession) game. Speaking of which, this defense has looked really iffy for the balance of the last month. BU will still be awarded lock status soon, naturally, but a team that’s given up 1.12 points per possession over its past 10 games may not be as potent as its projected No. 4 seed would suggest.
Take what in all likelihood will be your last look at Creighton here in “Should be in” before the Bluejays become a lock. Greg McDermott’s team is outscoring the rest of the Big East by a larger per-possession margin than Seton Hall, and this offense seems to improve with each game it plays. Ty-Shon Alexander scored 24 against DePaul, but if it hadn’t been Alexander this time, it would have been Marcus Zegarowski or some other teammate. This has been the most accurate 3-point shooting team in Big East play by a wide margin.
Markus Howard is now the Big East’s all-time leading scorer, and it appears that Marquette will receive its second consecutive seed somewhere in the Nos. 5 to 8 area. These are good times for the Golden Eagles’ basketball program. One facet of MU’s performance that could prove problematic, however, is the microscopic turnover rate being recorded by Big East opponents. Opposing offenses have given the ball away on just 12.8% of their possessions in conference play. With a turnover rate that low, opponents can and do score even when they’re not hitting shots.
What is the exact opposite of style points? Give Xavier those. The Musketeers coughed the ball up 22 times in a 77-possession game against St. John’s yet managed to escape Madison Square Garden with a 77-74 victory that, for the moment, qualifies as Quad 1. Travis Steele’s men scored the game’s final eight points, and this team that was once 2-6 in Big East play is just a win away from reaching .500. With Xavier having entered the contest as a No. 10 or 11 seed in mock brackets, a road win against the Red Storm preserves that status quo.
At the risk of engaging in un-Watch-like hyperbole, the last 3:46 of the Butler game at Hinkle Fieldhouse may turn out to be the most important 226 seconds of Georgetown’s season. The Hoyas closed the game on a 12-5 run and came away with the 73-66 victory. Beating the Bulldogs in Indianapolis represents easily the best win of 2019-20 for Patrick Ewing’s team. At 15-10 and 5-7 in the Big East, Georgetown would still be outside the field if the selection were made today. The win against the Bulldogs, however, gives the Hoyas a chance to approach upcoming games at Marquette and at Creighton as well as senior night against Villanova with a renewed sense of possibility.
Locks: Maryland, Penn State
No team in Bubble Watch — not Butler, not Villanova, no one — has been able to serially approach yet never secure lock status quite like Michigan State. Staff members here at Watch HQ have been waiting to drop confetti and throw a lock party for the Spartans now for all of February. Yet MSU is still here in “Should be in” after losing at home to Maryland 67-60. Tom Izzo’s team was ranked No. 1 in the preseason on the assumption that Cassius Winston plus great defense would be the best blend any team could claim. But Winston needs help, and Michigan State’s offense has scored at a rate only slightly above the league average in Big Ten play.
Things were looking bad for that No. 6 seed everyone says Iowa is going to earn. The Hawkeyes had lost three straight road contests and were down 55-47 against Minnesota in Minneapolis with a little more than five minutes left. Then Fran McCaffery’s team ended the afternoon on an 11-0 run to win the game, preserve the projected seed and imperil the tournament hopes of the Golden Gophers. Luka Garza has now scored 135 points in his past five games.
For the moment, Ohio State sports an impressive 5-6 record in Quad 1 contests. The fifth and most recent win for the projected No. 7 or 8 seed came by 16 over Purdue in Columbus, and the Boilermakers could drop below No. 30 in the NET rankings and thus relocate the contest retroactively to Quad 2. In any event, the Buckeyes appear to be rounding into form for the first time since December. Chris Holtmann’s team has won five of its last six to reach .500 (7-7) in the Big Ten, no mean feat, surely. The Wesson brothers, Kaleb and Andre, have connected on a combined 45% of their tries from beyond the arc in conference play, leading the charge for the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the league.
After slipping and falling awkwardly on the final play against Michigan State, Ayo Dosunmu didn’t play in the Illini’s 15-point loss at Rutgers. Illinois has lost four in a row, and the challenge grows only more severe as Brad Underwood’s team next faces a road test at Penn State. The Illini were being pictured as a No. 7 seed before the loss in Piscataway, though that position will be subject to revision downward based on Dosunmu’s availability and on what the rest of the field is doing. Over its past three games, Illinois has converted just 37% of its 2-point attempts.
Michigan has played like the best team in the Big Ten over its past three games, outscoring opponents (Michigan State, Northwestern and Indiana) by an outlandish 0.28 points per possession. Possibly Isaiah Livers has provided a lift after returning from his groin injury, yet the improvement has been teamwide and has made itself felt on both ends of the floor. UM is being shown as a No. 8 seed in mock brackets, and so is the next opponent. Rutgers will host Juwan Howard’s team, which will thereafter make its way to Purdue.
In two games against Nebraska, the Badgers hit 33 3s and scored a combined 1.17 points per possession. Greg Gard’s team is showing up in mock brackets as a No. 8 seed, and four of Wisconsin’s remaining six games will take place in Madison. Don’t be shocked if the Badgers improve their seed and save themselves the trouble of a round of 32 game against a No. 1 seed. (Not that such a game was an insuperable obstacle for Wisconsin in 2017. Duly noted.)
Rutgers hasn’t lost a home game since last March, a fact that will be of some interest to the opponents yet to play their scheduled games at the RAC: Michigan and Maryland. The Scarlet Knights have held steady for the past two weeks on the No. 8 line in mock brackets, and Ron Harper is coming off a 27-point performance in his team’s 72-57 win at home over Illinois. After a 29-year absence from the NCAA tournament, Rutgers is making the unthinkable an afterthought. Not only is Steve Pikiell’s team going to the tournament, it’s going to earn a good seed.
The Watch does not wish to wax apocalyptic and label an expected No. 9 or 10 seed like Purdue as being in trouble. Let us remark instead that Matt Painter’s team isn’t looking all that hot lately. The Boilermakers have lost their last two games, at home against Penn State and on the road at Ohio State, by a combined 28 points. Across those 80 minutes of basketball, opponents have outscored Purdue 69 to 24 from beyond the arc. Carsen Edwards isn’t walking through that door, of course, so this current crop of Boilers will seek to address the gaping imbalance starting with the team’s next game, at Wisconsin.
Depending on which mock bracket you chose to consult, Indiana entered its game at Michigan as either one of the last three teams in the tournament field or as one of the last six teams so favored. Why draw such a fine distinction? Because, for a second consecutive year, it looks as if the Hoosiers will take this question right down to the wire. Certainly, IU did itself no particular evaluative favors by losing to the Wolverines by 24 in Ann Arbor. Archie Miller’s group is 1-6 in true road contests this season, and Indiana has games yet to play at Minnesota, Purdue and Illinois.
The problem for Minnesota is two-fold. First, the Golden Gophers are 12-12. Second, the university has been a member of the Big Ten since 1895, and, in 2020, that membership makes wins hard to come by. This question of just how bad can a record be and still be good enough came up last season with Texas, when the 16-16 Longhorns were relegated to the NIT (which they won). The Gophers probably will need something on the order of four wins in their final six games or sustained heroics at the Big Ten tournament (or both) to avoid the same fate.
Locks: Oregon
Little remains to be said of Colorado before the Buffaloes move on up to lock territory as a projected No. 5 seed. Tad Boyle has a team that can beat you with both offense and defense. It was the latter that came to play when Colorado beat Oregon State 69-47 in a 63-possession game in Corvallis. The Buffs enjoy a significant advantage in free throw rate over their Pac-12 opponents, and Tyler Bey translated 13 tries from the line into a 21-15 double-double in the win over the Beavers. While Oregon and Arizona have tended to hold the spotlight, it bears repeating that Colorado could end up being the Pac-12’s best team.
Once again, projected No. 6 seed Arizona rode shot volume to a win on a night when the Wildcats’ shooting was subpar. Sean Miller’s team went 3-for-21 from beyond the arc at Stanford, giving UA a low effective FG% of 39.5. Arizona still won by nine, however, thanks in part to 13 offensive rebounds (four by Zeke Nnaji). In Pac-12 play, the Wildcats give the ball away on just 16% of their possessions, and they rebound their misses at a rate about 3 percentage points higher than the league average.
As a projected No. 9 seed, USC has recovered nicely from a three-game skid that tipped off with a 21-point loss at home to Colorado. The Trojans have now won three straight, and Andy Enfield’s group could well end the season with the league’s best defense in Pac-12 play. USC next travels to Colorado and Utah before returning home for games against Arizona and Arizona State. A .500 record in those four games could be enough to all but put this question to bed.
At five straight wins and counting, this February eruption by Arizona State has lifted the Sun Devils to a spot on the No. 11 line in mock brackets and, incidentally, put Bobby Hurley’s team in the thick of the Pac-12 race. Colorado, Oregon, Arizona and ASU are all tied in the loss column, and the Ducks will be coming to Tempe this week. Arizona State’s outside shooting has improved markedly during the win streak, as the Sun Devils have connected on 39% of their 3s over the last five outings.
Stanford stays in Bubble Watch for now because the Cardinal can claim wins over Oregon and Oklahoma and, not least, because this team is still showing up as a close call in mock brackets. But, after Jerod Haase’s team recorded its seventh loss in the past eight games (to Arizona 69-60 in Palo Alto), it’s clear that the Cardinal’s impending trip to Washington and Washington State will be do-or-die in terms of continued bubble prospects. One piece of good news for Stanford: Oscar da Silva is back in action after missing the Arizona State game.
After posting a 6-0 record in conference games decided by nine or fewer points, LSU has gone just 1-3 in its past four such contests. SEC opponents have shot more accurately from the field than LSU has, a fairly amazing state of affairs given that this is still the league’s No. 1 offense in conference play. (Two words: shot volume.) Will Wade has watched his team’s projected seed inch down to the No. 6 or No. 7 area, and LSU will now seek to regain its momentum at home against Kentucky and on the road against South Carolina and Florida.
Over the past two weeks, Florida has faced a succession of SEC opponents that aren’t under consideration as at-large tournament teams. To their credit, the Gators have been able to maintain their position as a projected No. 10 seed during this portion of the schedule, going 4-1 against Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt (twice). Now the games become more challenging. Next up for Mike White’s team is Arkansas, in Gainesville, and after that Florida will pay a visit to Kentucky. With a 22-point win at home over Auburn on their profile and four Quad 1 games yet to be played, the Gators will have every opportunity to improve their seed.
Before the Razorbacks’ last-second loss at home to Mississippi State, mock brackets really did not know what to do with this team. Eric Musselman’s group was showing up everywhere from (relatively) safely in as a No. 10 seed to hanging on by its fingernails on the No. 12 line. Now, at 4-8 in the SEC with losses in seven of its past eight conference games, this same Arkansas team should prove less difficult to evaluate. The Hogs aren’t down for the count, by any means, but even a team with a top-50 NET ranking is going to need to win at Florida or at home against LSU or against an Auburn or a Kentucky at the SEC tournament or some combination of all of the above to earn a bid.
Abdul Ado‘s putback with 0.6 seconds left at Arkansas gave the Bulldogs a 78-77 win, MSU’s second Quad 1 victory of the season. This is a team that was previously inhabiting that odd intermediate zone where you’re commonly recognized as a bubble team even though very few people are actually putting you in their mock bracket. That will change now. Mississippi State will appear in a few more brackets, and Ben Howland’s team will have the opportunity to win its way into the field. It’s conceivable that no remaining MSU opponent will make the tournament, but finishing the regular season at, say, 20-11 and 11-7 would command a respectful look from the committee.
Welcome back to Bubble Watch, Crimson Tide. Is getting to the tournament a long shot, even after your thrilling 88-82 win over LSU in Tuscaloosa? You bet! You’re 14-11, but you have a chance. That top-40 NET ranking before the win over the Tigers was a good omen, and your 19-point victory at home over Auburn will serve you well in the committee room. Now your challenge is to finish strong against a remaining schedule bereft of ranked opponents but brimming with tough road games at places such as Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
Frank Martin’s team has won eight of its past 10 and now sits at 8-4 in SEC play. The Watch has seen a bubble résumé or two in its day, but let the record show that South Carolina has one exceptionally strange profile. Yes, the Gamecocks’ NET ranking is low (mid-60s), but no lower than what Indiana was showing before the Hoosiers beat Iowa and no one was worked up over IU being invited to this bubble party. No, what’s really strange is not one but two bad losses at home, to Boston University and Stetson. Nevertheless, the Gamecocks are here, making a charge and touting their wins over Kentucky and Virginia.
Locks: None
The Cougars came up short in overtime at SMU, dropping their fourth Quad 1 loss of the season against two wins (at South Carolina and at Wichita State). This profile has been interpreted as saying “No. 7 seed” for a while now, and a road loss to the Mustangs won’t change that picture appreciably. If you wish to doubt this defense, you’ll assert with smug confidence that the American won’t continue to shoot just 26% on its 3s against UH. If you wish to tout this offense, you’ll proclaim with awed exuberance that Chris Harris (he of the seven offensive boards in 19 minutes in Dallas) is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country.
The Shockers look as if they’ve righted the ship. Gregg Marshall’s team has won back-to-back games by healthy margins, and WSU’s slide down the bracket has been halted at the No. 11 line. Now, can Wichita State stick in the field? The remaining schedule includes some challenging contests, including games at Cincinnati, SMU and Memphis, and the season finale at home against Tulsa. Will, for example, an 11-7 record in the American along with a NET ranking in the high 40s or low 50s be good enough for a bid? It appears that will be the question posed by the Shockers.
Playing its third consecutive overtime game, Cincinnati emerged from the extra session at East Carolina with a 70-67 victory. With eight wins in their past nine outings, the Bearcats have gone from off the committee’s radar to a No. 11 seed in mock brackets. John Brannen’s team still has games to play against both Wichita State (at home) and Houston (on the road), but no less important will be winning at home against UCF and Temple and on the road against South Florida. Three wins in those five games could be sufficient, though four would allow for easier breathing at UC.
With three losses in a row and a 6-6 record in the American, Memphis has fallen out of the tournament field completely. The Tigers could, in theory, still earn an at-large bid, and at this point doing so probably would require something on the order of five wins in the closing six games. Such a run would, ideally, include two victories over Houston and one at home against Wichita State. It’s a big ask for a team that has been outscored by its opponents in American play. But it’s conceivable.
Locks: Gonzaga, San Diego State, Dayton
After a one-point win at San Diego, the Cougars are being picked to be a No. 7 or 8 seed as they prepare for a pivotal week. Santa Clara comes to Provo on Thursday, followed by Gonzaga on Saturday. Yoeli Childs was in foul trouble for much of the game against the Toreros (yet still scored 17 points); if he plays heavy minutes against the Bulldogs, it could be the game everyone has been waiting for.
For a Rhode Island team that is envisioned as a No. 9 seed, the remainder of the season has resolved itself tidily into two categories. There is taking care of business, and then there is the home game against Dayton next month. “Taking care of business” most certainly encompasses tough games, particularly the Rams’ next challenge, a road test at Davidson. URI can claim easily the best defense in Atlantic 10 play, David Cox’s group is especially good at denying 3-point looks to opponents, and Fatts Russell is an excellent lead guard both in terms of scoring and distributing. The Rams appear to be on track for a third tournament bid in four years.
With wins over Wisconsin, Arizona State (by 40, no less, on a neutral floor in Phoenix) and BYU, the Gaels are endeavoring to pull off the most difficult WCC trick of all and build an at-large case that does not involve Gonzaga. (SMC lost to the Bulldogs by 30 in Moraga.) So far, it’s working. Saint Mary’s is shown as a No. 9 seed in mock brackets and has risen to the very edge of “Should be in” status here at Bubble Watch. Randy Bennett’s team has a good chance of sporting a 24-6 record when it arrives in Spokane for the season finale with the Zags.
Halfway through a two-game road swing constituting the toughest portion of the remaining schedule, the Panthers are 0-1. UNI lost in overtime at Loyola Chicago, dropping Ben Jacobson’s team to 22-4 and 11-3 in the Missouri Valley. The strong points of Northern Iowa’s profile are still what the Panthers have been all along, namely, an outstanding NET ranking (in the 30s) and a three-point win over Colorado in Boulder. Those strong points would become somewhat less salient, however, in the event of a loss in Northern Iowa’s next game, at Indiana State.
Utah State continues to take care of business against a schedule that no longer includes San Diego State. The Aggies took two cracks at the Aztecs and lost both games. It is probable that Craig Smith’s team will finish the regular season more or less where it is now, right at the line between “in” and “out.” In that case, it would be helpful for USU to meet, and defeat, SDSU in the Mountain West tournament.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are coming off a closer-than-expected five-point win at VMI. Steve Forbes’ team has been a mainstay within the top 50 of the NET rankings for a while now, and, at 23-4, ETSU is having possibly its best season since earning a No. 10 seed in 1991. The 11-point win at LSU still looks great on the profile as the Buccaneers continue to do battle with Furman in the Southern Conference regular season race.
It would be easy to overreact to VCU losing by 18 at Richmond. This contest represented the second half of a two-game set, after all, and the Rams did win the first meeting, at home, by 19. So, no, losing to the Spiders isn’t necessarily the final verdict for a team that entered the game right on the edge of the field of 68. Still, the previous win against Richmond was already priced into VCU’s status, and the Rams have now lost three of their past four. Put it this way, over the past two weeks it has become increasingly difficult to envision Mike Rhoades’ team earning an at-large spot without a win at home against Dayton in its next game.
Richmond’s schedule included only one regular-season game apiece against Dayton and Rhode Island, and the Spiders lost at home to the Flyers and beat the Rams in Kingston. By the same token, Chris Mooney’s team split its two-game series against VCU. Notwithstanding a setback against Saint Louis last month, Richmond has fairly breezed through the rest of the league while posting effectively the same per-possession scoring margin as consensus No. 9 seed URI in conference play. The Spiders close the season with six games varying from “close but winnable” to “highly winnable.” A strong closing run could give UR the soapbox it needs to return the conversation to that 10-point win on a neutral floor over Wisconsin.
The Flames haven’t lost in three weeks, keeping an intriguing at-large candidacy alive and running their record to 24-3. In NET terms, the best win on this profile is a neutral-floor victory over Akron. If that doesn’t sound sufficiently impressive, keep in mind the Zips really might be the second-best opponent this team has faced. (The best was LSU, and Liberty lost in Baton Rouge 74-57.) When a team has a great record against a so-so schedule, metrics like strength of record can be helpful. The Flames are in the mid-50s in SOR, just as they are in the NET. Classic bubble territory.
Yale’s dreams of an at-large are on the brink of becoming pure fantasy after losing at Penn. The defeat was the second loss in Ivy play for the Bulldogs, and it came at the hands of a Quakers team that entered the night 12-8. Put more simply, this is a Quad 4 loss, Yale’s first of the season. It’s going to be very difficult for James Jones’ men to put together one of the 36 best at-large profiles in the nation from this point forward. It will be much more difficult, one might venture to say, than winning the league’s automatic bid.