Vaughn Palmer: B.C. Liberals begin their rebuild
Credit to Author: Hugh Dawson| Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2020 02:10:44 +0000
VICTORIA — The B.C. Liberals have launched a bid for a political comeback, nominating their first candidate and releasing an opinion poll showing them in a dead heat with the New Democrats.
The poll, taken in late January, suggested roughly 33 per cent support for the two main parties among decided voters, within a margin of error of 3.5 points up or down.
Although the survey was commissioned by the Liberals and conducted by a former strategist, NDP executive director Raj Sihota confirmed that her party has found voter preferences to be similarly tight.
The Liberals also used the poll to field-test political messages and slogans.
The following drew a measure of agreement from two-thirds of those polled, so you can expect to hear variations in the weeks and months to come: “The B.C. NDP have failed on their promise to improve affordability. Home ownership is out of reach, rentals are expensive and scarce, prices of necessities and ICBC are rising faster than incomes, and B.C. has lost jobs in six of the last seven months.”
The Liberals also garnered a 75-per-cent favourable rating with a call for “ending the car insurance monopoly for ICBC and allowing customer choice in car insurance in B.C.”
Nothing there about privatization or the impact on rates, which is how the New Democrats would have phrased the question.
But ICBC has a trust and credibility problem, as the New Democrats themselves have admitted. It makes the public auto insurance company vulnerable to the Liberal attack, never mind how they plundered the ICBC accounts in the first place.
The last question on the survey probed the NDP success in turning the issue of money-laundering to its favour.
“The NDP government has been in place for two years,” it began. “Which of the following statements best describes their performance on the issue of money laundering?”
Only about a third of those responding agreed with this favourable characterization: “The B.C. NDP government has been tackling the issue and making progress.”
About half took the more negative view: “The B.C. NDP government talks about the issue but is not doing very much to tackle the issue.”
But a third of those surveyed refused to answer, suggesting the question was premature.
The pollster found 17 per cent support for the Greens, which is as well as the party did in the last provincial election when Andrew Weaver led them to three seats and the balance of power.
But that support may not be sustainable with Weaver stepping down as leader and assuming a lower profile as an independent MLA.
Although the Greens will try to redefine themselves under a new leader to be named June 27, they are vulnerable as junior partners in power-sharing arrangement with the NDP.
If you like what the government is doing, vote for the New Democrats; if you don’t, vote for the Opposition to replace them.
On that dynamic, the electorate could re-polarize into a two-party race, with the Greens reduced to a seat or two or shut out completely.
Greater doubts attach to the poll’s finding of seven per cent support for the Conservatives, a party that has not elected a member to the B.C. legislature in 42 years.
In the last election, the Conservatives ran only 10 candidates, garnering half of one per cent of the vote.
Still, one did make a difference by taking 2,200 votes in Courtenay-Comox, where the Liberals lost by a mere 189 votes.
Perhaps that’s what the Conservatives were doing in the poll — reminding the B.C. Liberals not to neglect their potential as vote splitters.
For now, the Liberals have more urgent priorities, starting with the need to refresh their line-up.
As of last week, five incumbent MLAs have announced they will not be running for re-election: Donna Barnett, Steve Thomson, Linda Reid, Linda Larson, and Ralph Sultan.
On the weekend, the Liberals in Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows confirmed former three-term school trustee and two-term city councillor Cheryl Ashlie as their candidate for the next election.
Ashlie also served as constituency assistant to Doug Bing, the last Liberal MLA for the riding. He is remembered by Liberals, though not fondly, for a late-in-the-2017 campaign suggestion that the party might bring back the harmonized sales tax.
Compounding the gaffe was leader Christy Clark, who took several days to thoroughly disavow such an act of political suicide.
Bing lost the seat by 1,600 votes to New Democrat Lisa Beare, now the minister of tourism, arts and culture.
Her seat is one of 10 that the New Democrats picked up in Metro Vancouver last election and one of 10 the B.C. Liberals will be trying to win back.
This weekend, Liberals in Abbotsford South will choose among three candidates: accountant and community leader Markus Delves, former Abbotsford Mayor Bruce Banman, and small business operator Lakhvinder Jhaj, who has the unusual distinction of having twice run for the legislature as a New Democrat.
Delves probably has the best shot at the nomination. But whichever one of the three wins, they will embark on a deeply personal mission on behalf of the party.
Abbotsford South is represented in the legislature by Darryl Plecas, who abandoned the Liberals to serve as Speaker under the NDP-Green alliance.
Plecas may or may not run for election. But either way, the Liberals are determined to repatriate Abbotsford South.