B.C. tourism will take hit because of coronavirus: economist
Credit to Author: Tiffany Crawford| Date: Thu, 30 Jan 2020 20:48:36 +0000
B.C.’s tourism industry will likely take a hit this year because of the coronavirus outbreak in China, says a local economist.
Bryan Yu, deputy chief economist for Central 1 Credit Union in Vancouver, says fears over the virus will impact tourism, as people cancel travel plans out of an abundance of caution.
On Thursday, the World Health Organization declared that the coronavirus is an international public health emergency of international concern, as the disease continues to spread outside of China. The number of confirmed cases exceeded 8,000, including three in Canada, and the number of deaths in China jumped to 170.
Speaking at press conference in Geneva Thursday, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the main reason for the declaration is because of the spread to other countries. The WHO said there had been 98 cases in 18 countries outside of China. As of Thursday afternoon, no deaths had been reported in countries outside of China.
Yu said with the declaration, travel will drop off, and declines will be felt across Canada, but they will be disproportionately felt in B.C. because of the strong Asia-Pacific ties in Vancouver. It’s unknown how long it will take before travel resumes to normal.
B.C. receives about half of all Chinese travellers and nearly 60 per cent of travellers from other Asian countries, he said. Ontario receives about 40 per cent of Chinese visitors.
During the SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003, the number of non-resident travellers declined by 20 per cent in Canada, however that number could be higher with this outbreak because travel from China has increased seven times since the pre-SARS period, said Yu.
“A decline today would have a more significant impact on Canadian tourism,” said Yu, adding that it is difficult to estimate how much it could cost the B.C. economy.
Many airlines have temporarily stopped flying in and out of China, including Air Canada, which halted all flights to Beijing and Shanghai on Thursday.
Yu said the travels restrictions and fears of the virus will have a ripple effect, so that travellers from all countries, and not just China, cancel trips to Canada.
With a slump in travel, B.C. attractions, entertainment, restaurants, and ski hills could be impacted the most but all of this will depend on how quickly the virus is contained.
Yu said, as with SARS, he expects the economy will rebound quickly, and anticipates the busy summer travel season will help, as long as the outbreak is contained.
More than 31 million non-resident travellers visited Canada in 2018, with expected increases in 2019. The U.S. makes up the largest number of non-resident travelers to Canada, followed by the U.K., and China.
China has been Canada’s fastest growing source of tourists for more than a decade, Yu said.
ticrawford@postmedia.com