Projected 2020 NFL draft order: Bengals lock up the No. 1 pick
Todd McShay thinks Chase Young is better than Joey and Nick Bosa and says he would draft Young No. 1 overall, even if he needed a quarterback. (1:17)
The one-win Cincinnati Bengals have locked up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft. The order after Cincinnati isn’t as clear, with the projections by the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) giving the Washington Redskins the best chance to pick No. 2.
The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, are now projected to have the Nos. 5, 19 and 25 picks, according to our 1-32 draft order projections. The Dolphins traded cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers in September to add another first-round pick, and they already had an extra first-rounder after trading Laremy Tunsil to the Texans.
What you need to know:
• McShay’s 2020 NFL Mock Draft 1.0 »
• The Kiper & McShay 2020 draft primer »
• Kiper’s Big Board » | McShay’s Top 32 »
• First draft podcast » | 32 draft nuggets »
• Full draft rankings from Scouts Inc. »
More NFL draft coverage »
The Jacksonville Jaguars own the Los Angeles Rams‘ first-round pick after the Jalen Ramsey trade. That pick is projected to be No. 20.
Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams and game locations. The order is based on each team’s average draft position, which is determined by the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games.
Check out the full projection below (updated Tuesday, after every Week 16 game):
Average draft position: 1.0
Average draft position: 2.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 100%
Average draft position: 3.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 100%
Average draft position: 4.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 100%
Average draft position: 4.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 98.5%
Average draft position: 6.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%
Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%
Average draft position: 8.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 90.6%
Average draft position: 8.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 82.9%
Average draft position: 9.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 80.7%
Average draft position: 12.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 20.7%
Average draft position: 13.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 11.2%
Average draft position: 13.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14%
Average draft position: 14.3
Average draft position: 15.0
Average draft position: 15.6
Average draft position: 15.7
Average draft position: 18.4
Average draft position: 19.8
Average draft position: 20.0
Average draft position: 20.6
Average draft position: 21.9
Average draft position: 23.4
Average draft position: 25.1
Average draft position: 25.4
Average draft position: 25.7
Average draft position: 27.7
Average draft position: 28.2
Average draft position: 28.2
Average draft position: 29.3
Average draft position: 29.2
Average draft position: 30.5