Stewart Beck and Pitman Potter: Canada’s future China strategy must consider national interests, global challenges
Credit to Author: Hardip Johal| Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2019 02:00:46 +0000
The international landscape facing Canada’s new minority Liberal government is fraught with uncertainty. Social unrest in Hong Kong, political disruption in the U.S., the Brexit crisis, Russian adventurism in Ukraine and elsewhere, and the existential threat of climate change are but a few of the significant foreign policy challenges Canada faces.
While much recent attention has been given to the Meng Wanzhou/Huawei affair, of greater importance are the changing global conditions that complicate Canada’s relations with China. Ottawa’s forward approach to China will require a fuller appreciation of these global challenges, a careful analysis of their impacts on relations with both China and the United States, and a capacity to mobilize political capital at home and diplomatic resources abroad to build effective responses. We propose three fundamental principles to guide Canada’s China policy in the years ahead: autonomy, national interest, and integrated coherence.
Canada is facing steady and increasing pressure to choose sides in the U.S.-China standoff. On trade matters, China and the U.S. each prod Canada to support their respective positions on World Trade Organization reform and China’s membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership. Politically, China has pressured Canada to defy a U.S. request to extradite Meng Wanzhou for trial, while the U.S. is pressuring Canada to decline adoption of Huawei’s 5G network. China and the U.S. have also pressed Canada to support their respective positions on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, governance in Hong Kong, and programs on protection and development of the Arctic, to name but a few.
Amid these pressures, Ottawa must be guided by a general principle of maintaining autonomy to make decisions that benefit Canada’s sustainable prosperity. Autonomy means more than simply the international legal condition of sovereignty, but includes the practical capacity to act unbound by others. In the U.S.-China context, this means first and foremost not simply succumbing to pressure from either China on the Meng matter or the U.S. on Huawei 5G, but instead taking decisions through careful analysis of the benefits for Canada. Protecting our autonomy also requires diversifying our international economic and political relationships. Important steps in this direction include full participation in the CPTPP (including supporting Taiwan’s accession to the agreement) and concluding trade deals with India and ASEAN. The CETA pact, meanwhile, can support trade and investment ties with the E.U. that can help insulate Canada from U.S. and PRC economic pressures, while an FTA with the U.K. in the event of Brexit would also help.
In light of the complexity of the challenges ahead, Canada needs a multi-partisan consensus on priorities for our relationship with China. Annual surveys conducted by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada over the past five years reveal significant divisions in Canadian popular opinion regarding Canada’s engagement with China. While APF Canada’s 2018 National Opinion Poll found that 43 per cent of Canadians consider Canada part of the Asia Pacific region (up from 34 per cent in 2016 and 18 per cent in 2013) and 59 per cent support an FTA with China, questions remain in the minds of Canadians as to whether the overall economic benefits of deepened engagement with the PRC will outweigh perceived threats to Canadian values as they relate to the environment, democracy, and human rights. This is reflected in the strong, correlative view that Ottawa should advance human rights in China even though it might interfere with bilateral economic relations.
Other surveys such as the 2018 Canada’s World Survey report from Environics reveal similar divisions over the relative importance of various policy issues, including climate change, human rights, security and economic development, each of which has significance for our China policy. As well, Canadians should resist the temptation to use policy differences on China — and their purported successes and failures — as political capital in the context of electoral and minority government politics, distracting from long-term strategic analysis and action.
It would be impossible to gain a consensus on all of the issues impinging on the Canada-China relationship, but the new Liberal government should develop a plan to mobilize Canada’s diverse communities to consider what are our fundamental national interests so we can have a long-term, unified, and strategic approach to China that carries across different governments.
How to deal with China in today’s increasingly complex international environment is a question that is not solely in the purview of our national security institutions. Integration of China relations and trade policy across multiple government departments is a necessary step. Policy co-ordination, a pragmatic assessment of our leverage points, and a realistic understanding of the areas for potential collaboration are essential for Canada to respond effectively to Beijing’s emergence as a global power and technology leader. The challenge of climate change is particularly relevant here, as Canada and China are both significant greenhouse gas emitters with shared interests in developing climate adaptation policies.
The West cannot turn back the clock. For good or ill China has arrived and we need to be on the front foot as opposed to simply reacting to decisions taken in Beijing or Washington. Implemented together, the principles of autonomy, national interests, and integrated cohesion can strengthen Canada’s capacity to proactively co-ordinate and effectively manage relations with China. China can no longer be viewed in isolation from challenging global dynamics. Neither should Canada’s China policies.
Stewart Beck is president and CEO of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; Pitman B. Potter is professor of law at the University of B.C. and a distinguished fellow at APF Canada.