Week 13 NFL game picks, schedule guide, playoff scenarios and more

November 29, 2019 admin

Dan Orlovsky and Marcus Spears believe the dominance of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens is too much even for the red-hot 49ers. (0:45)

The Week 13 NFL slate is stacked with great matchups. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score predictions.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy‘s Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk‘s Mackenzie Kraemer hand out helpful nuggets as well. It’s all here to help get you ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 13 schedule, including a huge showdown between Lamar Jackson‘s Ravens and a tough 49ers defense.

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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 91.2 | Spread: BAL -6 (47)

What to watch for: Two of the NFL’s best teams rely on different strengths. The Ravens are the NFL’s highest-scoring team at 35.1 points per game, and quarterback Lamar Jackson has led Baltimore to scores on his past 12 drives. The 49ers, meanwhile, are the league’s second-stingiest defense at 14.8 points allowed per game, and San Francisco has allowed just one touchdown in its opponents’ past 14 drives. Also worth watching: The Niners can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Rams loss or tie, or a tie and a Rams loss. — Jamison Hensley

Bold prediction: Jackson will rush for 100-plus yards. He has done it three times this season and now faces a 49ers defense that has few weaknesses — but one of them is its struggles against mobile quarterbacks. Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson averaged 8.1 yards on 19 rushes against the Niners in three games earlier this season. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: The 49ers’ defense is allowing just 136.9 opponent passing yards per game this season, which is 21 yards per game fewer than the next-closest team (Patriots). If the season ended today, that mark would rank as the 16th-lowest since the 1970 merger. And every single one of those 15 teams with a better mark played in the 1970s, when teams were rushing nearly 35 times a game.

What to know for fantasy: It’s been the Lamar Jackson show at home this season, and while that is fun to watch, Mark Ingram II‘s one touchdown run on 66 home carries has been underwhelming. See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: San Francisco is the first team to enter a game as the underdog despite holding a 10-1 record or better since Seattle (11-1) was a 2.5-point underdog at San Francisco (8-4) in 2013. In the past 30 seasons, underdogs with records of 10-1 or better are 2-11 straight up and 3-10 against the spread (ATS), including 0-9 straight up and 1-8 ATS in non-Week 17 games. Read more.

Wagoner’s pick: Ravens 23, 49ers 20
Hensley’s pick: Ravens 33, 49ers 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 67.8% (by an average of 6.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Earl Thomas says Ravens will be in Super Bowl … How George Kittle became Niners’ Mr. Indispensable

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 56.1 | Spread: IND -2.5 (43)

What to watch for: The Titans have allowed only one player — Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey — to rush for 100 yards in a game this season. But the Colts have had a player rush for at least 100 yards in a game five times this season, including back-to-back 100-yard rushing games from Jonathan Williams, who is starting in place of the injured Marlon Mack (hand). — Mike Wells

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Bold prediction: Tennessee’s Derrick Henry will gain 100-plus rushing yards against the Colts’ ninth-ranked run defense. Henry has 347 yards and four touchdowns in his past two games, but those came against poor run defenses. The last time Henry gained 100-plus yards against Indianapolis was in Week 6 of 2017. — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: The Titans are first in red-zone touchdown percentage (13-for-14, 92.9%) since Week 7. They were ranked 18th (53.3%) in Weeks 1-6.

What to know for fantasy: Indy’s Williams got 29 touches last week (26 carries and three catches), a total Mack has recorded just once in his career. Williams has assumed the Mack role, and he will once again assume starter duties this weekend. See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: Tennessee is 3-1-1 ATS in Ryan Tannehill starts, with all five games going over the total. When Marcus Mariota started, Tennessee was 2-4 ATS, with five of the six games going under the total. Read more.

Davenport’s pick: Titans 24, Colts 21
Wells’ pick: Titans 27, Colts 13
FPI prediction: IND, 60.5% (by an average of 3.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: 21 siblings, one dream: How family steered Titans’ Sharif Finch to NFL … Run-first attitude aside, Colts still need to take downfield shots

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 44.6 | Spread: TB -1 (47.5)

What to watch for: The Jaguars have given up 200-plus yards rushing in three consecutive games, which makes them just the fourth team in the past decade to do so (2010 Bills, 2016 49ers, 2019 Bengals). No team has given up 200-plus yards rushing in four consecutive games since the 1986 Bucs (per ESPN Stats & Information). Tampa Bay’s Ronald Jones II has never rushed for more than 80 yards in a game in his career, so this could be a big day for him, especially with linebacker Myles Jack (knee) missing practice earlier this week. — Mike DiRocco

Bold prediction: To that end, Tampa’s running backs will top 150 rushing yards for the first time this season. The Jaguars have given up 35 rushing plays of 12 or more yards and 15 rushing touchdowns this year, both the second most in the league. They’re also giving up 142.3 rushing yards per game (fourth most in the league.) — Jenna Laine

Stat to know: Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston can become the sixth player (seventh instance) in NFL history with seven consecutive games of at least 300 passing yards. And per the Elias Sports Bureau, one more touchdown will tie Winston with Peyton Manning for the second-most passing touchdowns before turning 26 years old (Manning has 111, while Dan Marino leads with 145).

What to know for fantasy: Jags receiver DJ Chark Jr. has as many top-15 PPR finishes at the position as the Bucs’ Chris Godwin this season (five). See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: Nine straight Tampa Bay games have gone over the total. Read more.

Marcus Spears expects the Jaguars will cause big problems for Jameis Winston that will lead to a significant amount of turnovers.

Laine’s pick: Buccaneers 33, Jaguars 22
DiRocco’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Jaguars 17
FPI prediction: JAX, 51.6% (by an average of 0.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Winston as confounding as ever to evaluate, but road ahead gets easier … Jaguars VP Coughlin mum on Marrone’s future

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 34.6 | Spread: CLE -1 (39)

What to watch for: Everyone will be on high alert for tensions to flare in this rematch, but with all major actors in the infamous fight sidelined, look for a low-drama game — at least as it relates to extracurriculars. The Steelers’ defense was unremarkable in the first matchup with the Browns. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, though, wants to rectify that this time around. — Brooke Pryor

Bold prediction: Cleveland’s Odell Beckham Jr. catches two touchdowns for the first time all season, in a game otherwise defined by a series of unsportsmanlike conduct and unnecessary roughness penalties between two teams with plenty of bad blood. — Jake Trotter

Stat to know: With Mason Rudolph under center, the Pittsburgh offense averaged 4.8 yards per play and 6.2 yards per pass attempt, and was 34% on third-down conversions. But with Devlin Hodges, those numbers jump to 5.3, 7.9 and 46%, respectively.

What to know for fantasy: Browns running back Nick Chubb has been among the most efficient runners in the league over his career, but in his past two meetings with the Steelers, he managed just 3.5 yards per carry. See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: This is the first time Cleveland has been favored in Pittsburgh since the 1989 season opener, which Cleveland won 51-0, the largest shutout road win by any team in the Super Bowl era. Read more.

Trotter’s pick: Browns 17, Steelers 13
Pryor’s pick: Steelers 17, Browns 14
FPI prediction: CLE, 50.9% (by an average of 0.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Fines, bans … what’s next in this wild rematch … Steelers name Hodges new starting QB

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 31.1 | Spread: GB -6.5 (45)

What to watch for: Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is coming off a season-worst 104 yards passing in a loss to the 49ers. But he’s not facing the San Francisco defense on Sunday. Rodgers, who is fourth in the league with 10 40-plus-yard passes, gets to face a defense this week that has allowed the most such passes this season. The Giants (and Packers, whom they are tied with in the category) have both allowed 13. That sets the stage for some big plays Sunday. — Jordan Raanan

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Bold prediction: The Packers’ defense — 29th in yards allowed per game (400.1) since Week 4 and tied for last in yards allowed per play (6.5) — will hold the Giants’ 30th-ranked offense without a touchdown. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: Rodgers has a 78.1 Total QBR in his career against the Giants, the second best for him among teams he has at least four starts against (Eagles, 85.6).

What to know for fantasy: Giants running back Saquon Barkley has not scored in three straight games and has averaged under 3.5 yards per carry in four straight. See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: New York is 1-8 ATS as a home underdog under Pat Shurmur. Read more.

Demovsky’s pick: Packers 31, Giants 12
Raanan’s pick: Packers 36, Giants 13
FPI prediction: GB, 75.0% (by an average of 9.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: LaFleur critical of self, distribution of ball … Barkley not impacting pass game, Giants need solutions

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 23.9 | Spread: CAR -10 (39.5)

What to watch for: How will the Panthers adjust defensively to the loss of nose tackle Dontari Poe, whose inside push has been big for a team that ranks second in the NFL in sacks? Kyle Love likely will be first up, but don’t be surprised to see Gerald McCoy and others rotate into Poe’s spot. The Redskins have allowed 35 sacks, the 10th most in the NFL. — David Newton

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Bold prediction: Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey will top 175 total yards and score once vs. the Redskins, who rank 23rd this season with 507 yards receiving allowed to opposing running backs. Washington has allowed 11 catches to backs in two games this year, and McCaffrey is the trickiest all-purpose back they will have faced, just ahead of Dalvin Cook, who had 168 all-purpose yards vs. the Redskins earlier this season. — John Keim

Stat to know: Washington’s Terry McLaurin leads rookies with 638 receiving yards, is tied for the rookie lead with 40 receptions (with Deebo Samuel) and is tied for second among rookies with five touchdowns (Marquise Brown, six). With another touchdown catch, McLaurin will join Charlie Brown (eight in 1982), Chris Cooley (six in 2004) and Hugh Taylor (six in 1947) as the only Redskins players with at least six receiving touchdowns in their first NFL seasons.

What to know for fantasy: The list of players this season with four straight games of 95-plus receiving yards is a short one: Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp and Carolina’s DJ Moore. See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: Seven of the past eight Washington games went under, including five of six under interim coach Bill Callahan. Washington has been a double-digit underdog four times during that stretch and has not scored more than nine points in those contests. Read more.

Keim’s pick: Panthers 23, Redskins 14
Newton’s pick: Panthers 24, Redskins 10
FPI prediction: CAR, 80.4% (by an average of 11.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Haskins has trusted mentor in Alex Smith … Cam Newton says ‘Charlotte is home’

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 21.4 | Spread: PHI -10 (45)

What to watch for: The Dolphins (minus-14, ranked 32nd) and Eagles (minus-5, ranked 26th) are among the bottom seven NFL teams in turnover differential. Each team is also in the bottom seven in giveaways. The Eagles have a significant talent edge, but playing sloppy football and losing the turnover battle is the main way they can keep the Dolphins in this game. — Cameron Wolfe

Bold prediction: Rookie receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside will have a breakout game and score his first touchdown. Coach Doug Pederson said the starting outside spot opposite Alshon Jeffery now belongs to Arcega-Whiteside after the release of Jordan Matthews. Arcega-Whiteside had a career-high two catches for 43 yards last week against the Seahawks. — Tim McManus

Stat to know: The Dolphins currently have a 17.5% chance to get the top pick in the 2020 NFL draft according to the FPI, the second highest behind the Bengals’ 63.4%. Miami has not selected in the top three of the draft since 2013, when it took Dion Jordan at No. 3 overall.

What to know for fantasy: By catching 12 passes last week against the Seahawks, the Eagles’ Zach Ertz became the only active tight end to record three straight games with at least nine receptions. See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: Over the past three seasons, the over is 13-5 in Ryan Fitzpatrick starts (5-3 this season). Read more.

Dan Orlovsky and Marcus Spears believe the Eagles will easily handle the Dolphins because they have made adjustments to correct errors from previous games.

McManus’ pick: Eagles 26, Dolphins 16
Wolfe’s pick: Eagles 34, Dolphins 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 80.0% (by an average of 11.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: What’s wrong with Wentz? It’s complicated … Dolphins’ rushing woes probably mean changes ahead

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 5.4 | Spread: NYJ -3.5 (41.5)

What to watch for: The once-struggling Jets have won three consecutive games as quarterback Sam Darnold has found his form. He will be matched against a Bengals secondary that allows the fourth-highest QBR to opposing quarterbacks, according to ESPN Stats & Information. — Ben Baby

Bold prediction: Jets running back Le’Veon Bell will crack the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time since Dec. 17, 2017, ending a streak of 12 consecutive games under the century mark. Bell showed signs of his old form last week, and he will be facing the worst run defense in the league. The Bengals are yielding 166 rushing yards per game. — Rich Cimini

Stat to know: Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor would become just the fifth coach in the Super Bowl era to lose his first 12 games as a head coach, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, should the Bengals drop this one on Sunday. He could join John McKay (26), Cam Cameron (13), Jim Ringo (13) and Marty Mornhinweg (12).

What to know for fantasy: In Weeks 1-10, Darnold averaged just 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Over the past two weeks, he’s at 10.3 yards per pass attempt. See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: New York has won and covered three straight games, all as an underdog. Read more.

Cimini’s pick: Jets 21, Bengals 13
Baby’s pick: Jets 24, Bengals 17
FPI prediction: NYJ, 52.7% (by an average of 1.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rejuvenated Jets have opportunity to overcome sins of past … Reinstalled starter Dalton says goal is to win, not protect Bengals’ 2020 draft position

4:05 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 42.2 | Spread: LAR -3 (47.5)

What to watch for: This will be Kliff Kingsbury’s first time facing his good friend and the coach he has been compared to most, Rams coach Sean McVay. Kingsbury will want to show he can match offensive wits with McVay, so expect some more trickery while showcasing Kyler Murray more than he has this season. — Josh Weinfuss

Bold prediction: Look for Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald, whose name was hardly called Monday night, to get after the mobile Murray and sack the rookie quarterback at least twice. The Cardinals had an extra week to prepare, but that won’t be enough against an inspired Rams defense that is out to prove its abysmal performance in Week 12 against the Ravens was an anomaly. — Lindsey Thiry

Stat to know: The Rams have been held under 20 points three games in a row, but they have not been held under 20 in four straight since 2016.

What to know for fantasy: Murray and Lamar Jackson were the only two quarterbacks to finish Weeks 9, 10 and 11 as top-seven players at the position (Murray had a bye in Week 12). See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: Arizona is 7-3-1 ATS this season, tied for the best mark in the NFL, including 5-1-1 ATS in its past seven games. Read more.

Thiry’s pick: Rams 24, Cardinals 21
Weinfuss’ pick: Cardinals 34, Rams 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 53.6% (by an average of 1.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rams cling to slim playoff hopes, but schedule provides no relief … Is Chandler Jones a legit candidate for DPOY?

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 51.4 | Spread: KC -10 (51)

What to watch for: The Chiefs have dominated Raiders quarterback Derek Carr at Arrowhead Stadium. He is 0-5 with three touchdowns and five interceptions. Can he turn it around against a Chiefs defense that in its last game had four interceptions against Philip Rivers and the Chargers? — Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: Despite having a career QBR of 9.0 at Arrowhead, Carr will have a good game, thanks in part to rookie running back Josh Jacobs, who will go over 1,000 yards rushing on the season (he needs 43 yards to reach the milestone). — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: As it stands, ESPN’s FPI gives Oakland just a 16% chance to make the playoffs. A win on Sunday would move its chances up to 44%, while a loss to Kansas City bumps that down just a touch to 13%.

What to know for fantasy: The Chiefs are averaging 34.4 points per game in their past three against the Raiders, but they haven’t had a player rush for even 55 yards in any of those games. See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: Andy Reid is 26-13 ATS in division games as Kansas City’s head coach, including 6-3 with Patrick Mahomes and 3-0 this season. Read more.

Dan Orvlosky and Marcus Spears agree that with Kansas City’s bye week they will be well rested enough to take down Oakland with no issues.

Gutierrez’s pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 17
Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 20
FPI prediction: KC, 90.0% (by an average of 17.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Can Carr exorcise his Arrowhead Stadium demons? … Reid optimistic Hill will play against Raiders

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 34.6 | Spread: LAC -3 (38.5)

What to watch for: The Broncos are coming off a dismal loss in Buffalo, where their offense closed things out with five consecutive three-and-outs. So their ability to muster anything on offense and who they start at QB will be the story the rest of the way. Still, two of the three games in which they have scored at least 23 points have been at home this season. — Jeff Legwold

Bold prediction: Playing in his home state of Colorado, Chargers running back Austin Ekeler will record more than 100 receiving yards. He leads all NFL running backs with 667 receiving yards and needs 51 more to pass Darren Sproles (1,400) for No. 8 in Chargers history among running backs. — Eric D. Williams

Stat to know: Denver quarterback Brandon Allen is completing 42% of his passes over the past two weeks (worst in NFL), and he could join Josh Rosen as the only quarterbacks this season to complete fewer than 50% of their passes in three straight weeks.

What to know for fantasy: For his career, Los Angeles receiver Keenan Allen is averaging just 45.3 receiving yards per game against the Broncos, but he has scored four times in four trips to Denver. See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: The under is 10-2 in Denver’s past 12 home games (10-3 since the start of last season). Read more.

Williams’ pick: Chargers 24, Broncos 20
Legwold’s pick: Chargers 20, Broncos 17
FPI prediction: LAC, 55.4% (by an average of 1.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Will remaining games determine Rivers’ future with Chargers? … Starting rookie QB Lock an option for Broncos

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 94.2 | Spread: NE -3.5 (45)

What to watch for: Can the Texans’ run defense get back on track against the Patriots? New England is averaging 3.4 yards per rush, third lowest in the NFL and on pace to be the lowest in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But the Texans have allowed 505 rushing yards in three games without J.J. Watt. — Sarah Barshop

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Bold prediction: Brady tops his season-high total of 348 yards passing against Washington. This is a result of going against a defensive scheme he is familiar with, an increased comfort level with Isaiah Wynn back at left tackle for a second consecutive week, the projected return of receiver Phillip Dorsett II and possibly receiver Mohamed Sanu Sr., and the Texans struggling to generate consistent pressure. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: Including the playoffs, New England is 10-1 all time against the Texans, the best record by one team against a single opponent from the same conference since the 1970 merger. That includes wins in all five matchups against Houston since Bill O’Brien became the head coach in 2014 after he had previously been a Pats assistant. The Patriots have a chance to clinch a playoff berth this weekend too, through five different scenarios.

What to know for fantasy: Houston’s Carlos Hyde has a run gaining more than 30 yards in three straight games. On his other 41 carries over that stretch, he is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is 11-4 ATS in his career as an underdog. Read more.

Reiss’ pick: Patriots 23, Texans 17
Barshop’s pick: Patriots 20, Texans 17
FPI prediction: NE, 53.9% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Complementary play propels Patriots … As always, Patriots stand in way for Bill O’Brien, Texans

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN App
Matchup rating: 87.2 | Spread: SEA -3 (49.5)

What to watch for: The Seahawks’ defensive resurgence over the past two games has come against offenses that were missing some key pieces — George Kittle for the 49ers, and Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Howard and Lane Johnson for the Eagles. Minnesota’s offense is fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, and it has a chance to be at full strength with receiver Adam Thielen expected to return off the bye. — Brady Henderson

• Watch: Russell Wilson
• Watch: Baker Mayfield
• Watch: Patrick Mahomes
• Watch: Tom Brady
• Watch: Andrew Luck
• Watch: Deshaun Watson
• Watch: Philip Rivers
• Watch: Eli Manning

Bold prediction: Both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf will each haul in two receiving touchdowns. Quarterback Russell Wilson should have his way with the Vikings’ pass defense, which will have had 15 days to fix some of the issues that showed up routinely in Minnesota’s first 11 games. — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: The Vikings have used play-action on an NFL-high 34% of their offensive plays since Week 5, and Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown a league-high 10 touchdowns without an interception on play-action passes over that span.

What to know for fantasy: Wilson has scored more than 24 fantasy points in consecutive Week 13s, and the Vikings are allowing 26% more quarterback fantasy points per game on the road than at home this season. See Week 13 rankings.

Betting nugget: Over the past four seasons, Minnesota is 3-13-1 ATS on the road against teams that entered with winning records. Read more.

Cronin’s pick: Seahawks 27, Vikings 24
Henderson’s pick: Seahawks 26, Vikings 23
FPI prediction: MIN, 53.3% (by an average of 1.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Griffen finds balance by learning when to turn off … Penny’s breakthrough welcome occurrence for Seahawks

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