No 'orange wave' but Singh upbeat as NDP support holds steady in B.C.
Credit to Author: Nick Eagland| Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2019 08:34:09 +0000
After a hard-fought battle and surge in popularity in the final weeks of the 43rd federal election, the NDP didn’t quite paint an “orange wave” but held its ground in B.C.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh focused much of his campaign on Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island. The NDP ran candidates in all 42 ridings in B.C. and at least 11 had won their seats by the time of going to press. In 2015, 14 of the 44 seats the NDP won were in B.C. In 2011, the party won 12 of its 103 seats in B.C.
Singh held onto his seat in Burnaby South, which he won in a byelection in February. NDP stalwarts Jenny Kwan (Vancouver East), Don Davies (Vancouver Kingsway) and Peter Julian (New Westminster—Burnaby) also held their seats.
“I spoke with Prime Minister Trudeau earlier tonight and I let him know that we’ll be working hard on making sure we deliver the priorities that Canadians and all of you have,” Singh said at his election party Monday night in a Burnaby hotel.
“We’re going to make sure that the energy we built over this campaign, the excitement we built and the focus we put on people — on people’s struggles — continues so that we can play a constructive and positive role in the new parliament that Canadians have chosen.”
The party also held onto Skeena—Bulkley Valley, North Island—Powell River, Courtenay—Alberni, Cowichan—Malahat—Langford and Esquimalt—Saanich-Sooke, and South Okanagan—West Kootenay.
But it lost Kootenay—Columbia, and veteran Svend Robinson (Burnaby North—Seymour) was unable to take back his seat after a 13-year hiatus, losing to popular Liberal incumbent Terry Beech in the riding at the terminus of the contentious Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project.
Port Moody—Coquitlam was too close to call at the time of going to press.
Singh performed well in debates and saw his popularity rise significantly during his campaign. The party saw a surge in support in B.C. near the end of the campaign, with 23 per cent of respondents to a mid-October Insights West poll saying they would vote for the party’s candidate in their riding, up from 14 per cent in mid-September.
Singh’s platform resonated in B.C., where affordability, housing and environment were among top concerns for voters. His platform promised to bring Canadians universal Pharmacare and dental care, affordable homes, a cap on cellphone and internet fees, student debt relief, climate action and a tax on multimillionaires.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh at his election night victory party in Burnaby, October 21 2019.
David Moscrop, a political theorist and post-doctoral fellow in the University of Ottawa’s department of communication, said the NDP improved its position by spending plenty of time campaigning on the West Coast and by attracting good candidates.
“The NDP has run — along with the Bloc Québécois (in Quebec) — the best campaign, without a doubt,” he said.
“The vote intention has been good for them. The favourability of their leader has been good for them.”
The party saw some trouble in Quebec, where the Bloc saw a surge in support, Moscrop said. Meantime, it already had a foothold in B.C., with 12 members at the time of dissolution.
The NDP tapped into Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island opposition to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, and into the dispositions and demographics for those regions worked well for them.
“B.C. has been so competitive that the NDP has to ward off challenges or engage in challenges with the Greens, the Liberals and the Conservatives,” Moscrop said, pointing to Vancouver Kingsway, Courtenay—Alberni and Victoria as examples.
Sanjay Jeram, a senior lecturer in political science at Simon Fraser University, said that given the NDP’s limited campaign fundraising, the party was wise to shore up support in Metro Vancouver and on Vancouver Island, where Singh’s message strongly resonated with voters. He expected B.C. to be the NDP’s biggest success.
“His housing proposals and the way he discussed housing, I think, has made a difference in some of Metro Vancouver ridings that people either thought might go to the Liberals or that may (have been) toss-ups for the Greens,” Jeram said.
He said Singh was also able to convince people on Vancouver Island that the NDP’s commitment to the environment rivalled or even surpassed that of Elizabeth May and the Greens.
“I think that his positioning, compared to Andrew Scheer and Justin Trudeau, in the debates has helped his persona among potential voters who may have gone Green,” he said.
Jeram said B.C.’s confidence in its NDP-minority provincial government has made voters here more comfortable with the idea of a minority federal government. A Research Co. poll in May found that 39 per cent of respondents said they would vote in a sudden election for the B.C. NDP, followed by 30 per cent for the B.C. Liberals.
“They can see how that works and I think a lot of people in B.C. are actually even enthusiastic about it, not even just comfortable,” Jeram said.
“They have changed or feel differently about whether minorities or majorities are good, and feel that they want to put a minority government in place in Ottawa.”
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