Greens hold ground on Vancouver Island, add one in New Brunswick
Credit to Author: Derrick Penner| Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2019 07:13:46 +0000
VICTORIA — The federal Green party didn’t match its ultimate dream of painting all of Vancouver Island’s ridings its signature colour, but did manage to hold its ground on Vancouver Island and expanded its caucus with a win in New Brunswick, its first outside B.C.
Party Leader Elizabeth May handily recaptured her Saanich—Gulf Islands seat and Paul Manly successfully defended the Nanaimo—Ladysmith seat that he won in a byelection last May over the NDP’s Bob Chamberlin, his same opponent this time around.
By deadline, Chamberlin appeared headed for a third-place finish behind Conservative candidate John Hirst.
“This is within the range of things the party had set out as objectives at the very beginning, so it’s not a surprise,” said May with results still evolving, but looking as through her party will wind up with a caucus of three members.
In adding up silver linings during her acceptance speech, May heralded the fact that the Green Party doubled its share of the popular vote in this election and tripled its seat count, which was the best result for any national Green party in a first-past-the-post electoral system.
May added that she was relieved to see Justin Trudeau’s Liberals reduced to a minority government, which will force him to work with other parties to maintain power.
“By dint of hard work, a sense of duty and deep ethics, we can make a really significant contribution to a minority parliament,” May said to her cheering supporters, “and we will.”
On the other hand, in an interview, May acknowledged that it was disappointing not to have won more seats, “particularly Victoria, that’s a real heart breaker.”
Victoria candidate Racelle Kooy, a Samahquam First Nation member displaced from her Interior home by wildfires in 2017, was seen as a good bet to unseat the NDP in that riding as incumbent MP Murray Rankin did not run again.
Green Party leader Elizabeth May waves after voting in the federal election in Sidney, British Columbia, Canada October 21, 2019.
However as of deadline, Kooy was behind the NDP candidate Laurel Collins who looked solidly in charge to keep the seat and most of Vancouver Island’s map orange.
Early polling told the party that southern Vancouver Island in particular would be competitive territory, but as of deadline, bigger gains at the ballot box appeared elusive.
While Manly won his seat easily for the Greens in Nanaimo—Ladysmith, the NDP’s Randall Garrison appeared on his way to recapturing the Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke riding and Alistair MacGregor held on to Cowichan—Malahat—Langford with the Greens’ Lydia Hwitsum in third place to Conservative Alana DeLong.
May was particularly pleased to see Manly hold on to Nanaimo—Ladysmith in the face of what she characterized as a fierce and concerted “misinformation” campaign by the NDP to “malign Green candidates.”
Late in the campaign, May found herself fending off an NDP advertising she characterized as “dishonest” and “disgraceful” misinformation for questioning whether the Greens would defend a woman’s right to safe abortions, and whether the party will oppose budget cuts to services proposed by the federal Conservatives.
“So I’m really happy Paul Manly was reelected in Nanaimo—Ladysmith,” she said.
And May continued to bristle at the NDP’s concerted campaign against the Greens that appeared to focus on the Vancouver Island seats where the party hoped to do well.
May said she believes the election act should be amended so that when parties make claims “that are factually wrong, overwhelmingly, factually wrong,” they face consequences.
As much as the Greens hoped their experience with electoral success at the provincial level would translate into a winning ground game federally, they were outworked by an NDP long experienced at getting its vote out and voter sentiment concerned about an outcome they didn’t want, said Sanjay Jeram, a senior lecturer in political science at Simon Fraser University.
On a regional level, Jeram estimates that voters in Vancouver Island ridings the Greens hoped to turn perhaps became nervous.
“When they made their choices, they saw the real potential of a Conservative government, and they didn’t want that,” Jeram said.
Much like voters in southern Ontario ridings calculated that Liberal candidates were the most likely to stand in the way of a Conservative majority, Vancouver Island voters saw voting for NDP incumbents was the safe choice.
“When Elizabeth May was asking voters to send Green MPs to a minority government, how do you know you’re going to have a workable minority to send them to,” Jeram said.
And Jeram added that the NDP really focused their limited resources on maintaining the seats the party needed to to keep official party status.
The Green expectations going into the campaign were buoyed by electoral wins at the provincial level in New Brunswick and P.E.I. and its leadership on climate action, which emerged as a top issue for many voters.
At an editorial meeting with Postmedia, May joked about dreaming of measuring the windows at 24 Sussex Drive for drapes, but more realistically felt confident of the Greens winning enough seats to take a “balance of responsibility” position to influence stronger climate policy out of a minority government.
The campaign, however, turned out to be a tougher battle with the NDP in particular. For the NDP, keeping that ground orange and incumbent MPs in place was seen as crucial for its prospects to maintain official party status.
And with a late surge in popularity, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh had his own designs on becoming the balance of power to a Liberal minority government.
And as May blitzed all seven Vancouver Island ridings in the campaign’s dying days, Singh followed with key stops in Nanaimo, the University of Victoria and Oak Bay before both party leaders capped off campaigns at rallies in Vancouver.
In a sign of how important British Columbia was to the prospects of both the Greens and the NDP, both leaders spent significant portions of their time campaigning in the province.
May devoted the most days, 16 in total where she made 30 stops, touring mostly Vancouver Island. but Singh wasn’t far behind spreading 30 stops over 12 days including four visits to Victoria to bolster the campaign of candidate Laurel Collins, who was seen to be in a tough fight with the Greens’ Kooy.
With results still solidifying, May said she would “never underestimate” the amount of influence the Green caucus might have in a new parliament.
With files from Canadian Press