How B.C. voted: Liberals punished, Green breakthrough fades
Credit to Author: Randy Shore| Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2019 06:01:34 +0000
British Columbians shifted their allegiances on election day, punishing Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in the popular vote, but not enough to stop him from forming the next government.
The Liberals garnered just 26 per cent of the popular vote in early results, down from 35 in the 2015 election. Nonetheless, the Liberals are projected to form a minority government with 17 members from B.C.
“In our polling, Justin Trudeau really failed on two big categories,” said Steve Mossop, President of Insights West.
“One was overall transparency and trust in government and that’s related to the SNC Lavalin affair. In B.C., the whole pipeline fiasco really baffled voters, who didn’t seem to know where the Liberals stood.”
The purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline may have alienated B.C.’s fossil fuel opponents, he added.
“We’ve been tracking the Conservative lead in British Columbia through the entire campaign and the New Democrats have been gaining steadily,” he said.
The New Democrats cannibalized votes from both the Liberals and the Greens, he said.
The Conservatives increased their seat count in B.C. with a healthy lead in the popular vote, which increased to 34 per cent from 30.
The Liberals and the NDP will each send 11 members to Parliament.
Green Leader Elizabeth May reacts while waiting for results from the federal election in Victoria.
With much of the free world embroiled in weekly climate change protests, B.C. voters sent Green incumbents, leader Elizabeth May (Saanich-Gulf Islands) and Paul Manly (Nanaimo-Ladysmith) back to Ottawa.
The Greens’ share of the popular vote appeared to wane over the campaign period in B.C.
“People get excited and see the momentum (the Greens had), but sometimes it comes down to strategic voting,” said Mossop.
“People are often not voting for the party they like best, but voting because they want someone else out of power. The lesser of two evils appears to be driving a lot of voter behaviour these days.”
Late in the campaign period, an Insights West poll found that only 19 per cent of respondents said they were voting to support a favourite local candidate, and only 24 per cent to support their preferred party leader.
More than a quarter planned to vote for the “best of the worst,” while 22 per cent were just trying to block an unpalatable party from winning.
It’s not usual for B.C. to elect members from a variety of parties and this election is no exception, said Gerald Baier, at political scientist from the University of British Columbia.
“Rumours of the NDP’s demise appear to be premature, which suggests their core is still there and that they have responded to a strong leader and campaigner (in Jagmeet Singh),” he said.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh dances onstage at the NDP election night victory party, Burnaby, October 21 2019.
The NDP’s campaign on Vancouver Island appears to have paid off for them, at least partly at the expense of the Greens, he said.
“It really was a battle there between the NDP and the Greens.”
A different Green voter seems to have emerged from the fight for southern Vancouver Island.
“They are urban, retirees, not exactly the hippies from Nelson we are talking about,” he said.
The election of Jenica Atwin in Fredericton will give the Greens a boost regionally and could see a bump in their popular vote across the country, he noted.
“All the more reason to adopt proportional representation,” said Baier.
“If we did, the Greens might be looking at 35 or 40 seats instead of three,” he said.
Conservatives led all parties in advance polls, with 33 per cent casting a ballot before election day, followed by the NDP (21 per cent), Liberals (20 per cent) and finally the Greens (16 per cent).
Insights West polled 1,670 adults between October 13 and 16. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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