Election 2019: All four party leaders expected in B.C. for final, crucial campaign weekend
Credit to Author: Lori Culbert| Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2019 22:42:08 +0000
It will be Battleground B.C. this weekend as the leaders of all four major parties are expected to be in this province for the final, crucial days of this heated campaign.
Polls suggest this year’s race is so close that votes cast here are expected to play a major role in deciding Canada’s next government.
B.C. is important because it holds the most seats west of Ontario and, unlike stronghold provinces such as Alberta, all the parties are competitive in certain ridings here, said Gerald Baier, University of B.C. associate professor of political science.
“There’s a lot of really tight, two-way races featuring all of the main parties,” Baier said. “The math makes sense for all of the parties to be in B.C. this weekend.”
The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh spent Friday on Vancouver Island, and plans to be in Metro Vancouver and Penticton over the weekend. The Green’s Elizabeth May was also on Vancouver Island on Friday, and has indicated she will visit the North Shore, Burnaby and Vancouver on Saturday.
The Conservatives say Leader Andrew Scheer will be in B.C. on Sunday, and the party is advertising a rally that evening in Richmond with candidate Alice Wong, who is running for re-election. A Liberal spokeswoman said Justin Trudeau is expected to be back in B.C. before election day, but his schedule hasn’t been released yet.
There is much at stake here.
The Liberals won 17 of B.C.’s 42 ridings in 2015, a massive increase over the two seats they won in 2011, but they’re facing tough fights to hold onto some of them this year. The Conservatives, who fell from 21 seats in 2011 to just 10 in 2015, are working hard to try to paint many of those Grit-held ridings blue again.
The NDP’s strength in B.C. remained roughly the same in 2015 with 14 victories, but the question is whether the surging popularity of Leader Jagmeet Singh, the candidate for Burnaby South, is enough to hold those ridings for his party.
Also from B.C., May is running for re-election in Saanich-Gulf Islands, and her party’s only other federal seat is in Nanaimo-Ladysmith. Her party’s expansion dreams are rooted in this province.
Since the writ dropped Sept. 11, the leaders have made various stump speeches in B.C. Postmedia News analyzed the leaders’ travel to this province and found:
• Trudeau has visited B.C. over five days, for nine campaign stops, most of those in Metro. He twice campaigned with candidate Randeep Sarai running for re-election in Surrey Centre, and twice stopped in Burnaby South where Liberal Neelam Brar is challenging Singh. Trudeau has also travelled to Kamloops, where he hopes candidate Terry Lake can upset the Conservative incumbent, and to Vancouver Kingsway, where Liberal Tamara Taggart is in for a tough fight to try to unseat the NDP’s Don Davies.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau at an election campaign rally hosted by Surrey-Centre candidate Randeep Sarai on Sept. 24. REUTERS/Jennifer Gauthier
• The Tories say Scheer has visited B.C. three times and made 10 campaign stops, many of them in seats the party lost in 2015 but would like to win back: Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, Delta, Courtenay-Alberni, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge and Kelowna-Lake Country. He has also been to South Surrey-White Rock, which the Tories won in 2015 but then lost in a 2017 byelection, and to Singh’s Burnaby South riding.
Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer campaigns in Langley on Oct. 11. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio
• Singh has spent 12 days in B.C., and made 27 campaign stops, four of them in his Burnaby South riding, which has received much attention from all the leaders. He has also been four times to Victoria, where candidate Laurel Collins is in a tough fight to hold this seat for the NDP; three times to Nanaimo-Ladysmith, a seat the Greens stole from the NDP in a byelection earlier this year; and twice to Port Moody-Coquitlam, where the party will try to hold the seat without longtime MP Fin Donnelly on the ballot.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh chats with local candidates Breen Ouellette of Vancouver Centre, left, and Yvonne Hanson of Vancouver Granville on Granville Island on Oct. 14. REUTERS/Jennifer Gauthier
• May has spent the most time in B.C. at 16 days, with roughly 30 campaign stops — most of them on Vancouver Island, where her chances of growing the Greens beyond two seats is the greatest. She is focusing on Victoria, where she hopes candidate Racelle Kooy can beat Collins, as well as some neighbouring seats like Cowichan-Malahat-Langford and Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke. May has also visited other B.C. ridings, but it’s not clear whether her party can expand off the Island.
Green Leader Elizabeth May campaigns with Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke candidate David Merner on Oct. 4. REUTERS/Kevin Light
A new Insights West poll released Friday found — in response to the question, ‘If the federal election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for?’ — support for the Conservatives in B.C. has remained relatively stable at around 28 per cent and Liberal support has also remained consistent at roughly 19 per cent since the campaign started. But backing for the NDP has risen from 14 to 23 per cent.
“The NDP’s new-found polling strength appears to be coming from three groups where they have traditionally found support: women, younger voters and voters in the coastal areas of Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island,” said Insights West president Steve Mossop, who cautioned the outcome of the election still depends on party supporters actually getting to the voting booth. “More often than their older cohorts, young voters have a tendency to stay home come election day … Conservative voter turnout is something that party can bank on much more so than any other party.”
The Insights West poll questioned 1,670 British Columbians between Oct. 13 and 16, and its margin of error is plus- or minus-2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Twitter: @loriculbert