Euro 2020 qualifying: Who will reach the finals?
After a 2-1 defeat to the Czech Republic, the FC crew dive into England’s weaknesses heading into Euro 2020. (1:10)
Euro 2020 kicks off in June next year and pieces at the 24-team tournament are beginning to be claimed. Here is a look at the latest qualifying permutations and scenarios.
– Euro 2020 qualifying: All you need to know
– Stream Euro 2020 qualifiers (live and replay) on ESPN+
– Qualifying tables | Upcoming fixtures
The top two teams in each group qualify automatically. Four more nations will qualify via playoffs, qualification for which is based on UEFA Nations League performance.
QUALIFIED FOR FINALS
Belgium
Italy
JUMP TO: Who will take part in the playoffs?
England suffered a surprise defeat in the Czech Republic on Friday, which means they must wait to seal their place. Victory in Bulgaria on Monday could still see them over the line if Kosovo do not beat Montenegro at home.
Czech Republic are now in a very strong position, and can qualify with a win at home to Kosovo on Nov. 14. Kosovo, meanwhile, know they can pip the Czechs if they win their three remaining games — which includes a home game against England in their final qualifier.
Ukraine‘s only dropped points so far came in a creditable 0-0 draw away to Portugal. They can now seal qualification with a point when they host the Portuguese on Monday.
Portugal are in a superb position to take the second qualification place, requiring a maximum of five points with games at home to Lithuania and away to Luxembourg to complete their campaign in November.
Serbia still have very slim hope, but are going to need a lot of help. Serbia play at home to Ukraine on the final day, but they lost the first meeting of the teams 5-0. Serbia must win their next three games — Luxembourg home and away and a trip to Lithuania — and would then also need to beat Ukraine (who also need to lose at home to Portugal on Monday) by a greater scoreline than 5-0 as the two nations would be level on points. Their other slim hope is that Portugal take no more than four points from their remaining three games, which appears unlikely. Serbia are guaranteed a playoff if they finish outside the top two.
Netherlands were staring the playoffs in the face, losing at home to Northern Ireland with nine minutes to play. But they turned it around with three late goals, and should qualify for the finals as long as they do not drop points against Belarus or Estonia.
The same can be said for Germany, who like the Dutch have 12 points and face both Belarus and Estonia..
Northern Ireland also have 12 points, but they have all come against the group’s lesser lights. To have a chance of qualifying automatically, Northern Ireland will now likely have to win in Germany and at home to Netherlands next month, and probably hope one of their rivals drops surprise points.
There is an unlikely scenario where all three nations finish on 18 points, which means it would come down to head-to-head goal difference as each team would have beaten each other once and lost once.
Republic of Ireland only drew 0-0 in Georgia, but top the group on head-to-head record over Denmark. They go to Switzerland on Tuesday knowing a win would send them to the finals; a draw or defeat would leave qualification in their own hands, requiring a victory when Denmark visit Dublin on Nov. 18.
Denmark secured a crucial 1-0 win over Switzerland on Saturday, a result that also gives them the head-to-head advantage over the Swiss. It means that if Switzerland and Ireland draw on Tuesday, Denmark will qualify with a win over Gibraltar on Nov. 15.
Although Switzerland sit outside the top two, they are certainly not out of it and if they win their final three matches against Ireland, Georgia and Gibraltar they will definitely qualify. But if they lose at home to Ireland it would effectively be over as a Denmark win at home to Gibraltar would eliminate them. A draw against the Irish keeps them in it, but they would need Denmark to then avoid defeat in Dublin.
Croatia are back in control of the group after winning 3-0 at home to Hungary, while Slovakia and Wales played out a 1-1 draw.
Croatia lead on 13 points, and will be guaranteed qualification if they win in Wales on Sunday.
Slovakia are on 10 points with Hungary a point further back and Wales, who have a game in hand, on seven.
Slovakia and Hungary must both go to Croatia, which gives the World Cup finalists an extra edge and provides Wales — guaranteed their place with three wins — with hope they might be able slide into the top two after struggling for much of the campaign.
Wales, Slovakia and Hungary all have Azerbaijan still to play, which means they have the chance to pick up a victory while at least one of their rivals drops points in a head-to-head meeting.
Hungary’s only remaining home game is against Azerbaijan, which makes their task of making the top two all the harder.
Spain were made to wait to qualify for the finals after a late penalty saw them draw 1-1 in Norway, but they can still secure it if they avoid defeat in Sweden or if Romania lose to Norway on Tuesday.
The real battle follows behind with Sweden in second, one point ahead of Romania and Norway a further three points behind. The two teams meet in Bucharest on Nov. 15, and both also still have to play Spain.
Sweden host Spain in midweek, and if they can pull off a victory they should only need a point in Romania on Nov. 15 (with Faroe Islands to play at home on the final day). If they lose to Spain, then much will depend on the result in Romania vs. Norway. If Romania win, they know that victory at home to Sweden will take them to the finals. Draw, and Romania would likely need to take points off Spain on the final day to stop Sweden. Lose, and Norway are very much back in contention.
Norway will probably have to win their remaining three matches (they also play Faroe Islands and Malta) and hope Sweden lose to Spain and do not beat Romania to have the best chance of qualifying. Norway could, however, also qualify if they draw in Romania and Sweden lose to Spain, then Sweden are beaten by Romania, and Romania lose to Spain.
This is another very tight group. Poland lead on 16 points, with Austria on 13, Slovenia and North Macedonia on 11 and Israel the rank outsiders on eight.
It would be a huge surprise if Poland were to fail to qualify from this position, and victory at home to North Macedonia on Sunday would see them over the line.
Austria moved into second with their come-from-behind win over Israel on Thursday, and Sunday’s trip to Slovenia — who are away to Poland on the final matchday next month — will have a big say in the outcome of this group.
North Macedonia won at home to Slovenia to stay in contention, but their chances are harmed as the only team without a fixture left against pointless Latvia, while they must go to Poland at the weekend.
Israel are now almost out of the running but have a good chance of a playoff via UEFA Nations League performance.
Turkey rescued a late 1-0 win over Albania via a fortunate Cenk Tosun goal to stay top ahead of France, who won 1-0 in Iceland, on the head-to-head tiebreaker. There is now a six-point gap from the two nations to third-placed Iceland. Turkey could qualify with a win in France on Monday but only in the unlikely event of Iceland also failing to win at home to Andorra; or with a draw if Iceland lose to Andorra.
France sit six points ahead of third-placed Iceland, and victory over Turkey would see them go top of the group and clinch a spot in next summer’s finals.
Iceland are not without hope. They will need to beat Andorra on Monday and hope Turkey lose in France. If that happens, and Iceland win in Istabul on Nov. 14, would ensure Iceland would go into the final matchday knowing that a win in Moldova secures second place ahead of Turkey on the head to head rule. Iceland will get a playoff if they miss out, however.
Albania have a very small outside chance but will be eliminated if France win or draw at home to Turkey on Monday. They then need France to lose at home to Moldova in their following game, while Albania would need to beat Moldova and Andorra and then win at home to France by a scoreline greater than 4-1 to overtake the world champions on the head to head calculation. Albania cannot qualify in a three-way tie with France and Iceland OR Turkey and Iceland.
Belgium qualified for the finals on Thursday with a 9-0 victory at home to minnows San Marino.
Russia are almost certain to join them, and need a point in Cyprus on Sunday to rubberstamp their place.
With seven wins out of seven, Italy are through to the finals.
The race for second is far closer, but Finland have the upper hand as they have already played Italy twice. Defeat to Bosnia on Saturday harmed their chances, but with home games against Armenia on Tuesday and Liechtenstein on Nov. 15 they could qualify before heading to Greece on the final day.
Bosnia and Herzegovina are back in contention, two points behind Finland but they must welcome Italy on Nov. 15. Realistically, Bosnia need Finland to drop points in at least one of their next two home games… or they must get a result themselves against Italy.
Armenia‘s draw in Liechtenstein on Saturday really damaged their chances, and they must win in Finland on Tuesday to have hope, as their final group match is away in Italy.
The best-performing nations from the UEFA Nations League who do not qualify automatically for Euro 2020 will get a playoff place.
There will be 16 teams in the playoffs, with four from each league path.
The winners of the two one-legged semifinals will meet in the final for a place at Euro 2020.
The playoff system is explained in greater detail here.
The UEFA Nations League rankings are as follows. The first four nations are guaranteed a playoff, should they need it. If a team qualifies automatically, then that place passes down the line.
As it stands, the teams in bold would enter the playoffs. Hungary and Romania would be drawn into the paths of League A or B because, as hosts, they require a playoff route to the finals that does not include another host and Scotland, as Nations League group winners, have the right to take the League C path as a host.
There would be a draw to decide which of Bulgaria and Israel takes the remaining slot in the League C path.
League A: Portugal, Netherlands, England, Switzerland, Belgium, France, Spain, Italy, Croatia, Poland, Germany, Iceland
League B: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine, Denmark, Sweden, Russia, Austria, Wales, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Turkey, Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland
League C: Scotland, Norway, Serbia, Finland, Bulgaria, Israel, Hungary, Romania, Greece, Albania, Montenegro, Cyprus, Estonia, Slovenia, Lithuania
League D: Georgia, Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus, Luxembourg, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Gibraltar, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Malta, San Marino
It means the playoff could look like this:
Switzerland vs. Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary/Romania
Iceland vs. Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary/Romania
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Hungary/Romania
Wales vs. Northern Ireland
Scotland vs. Bulgaria/Israel
Norway vs. Serbia
Georgia vs. Belarus
North Macedonia vs. Kosovo