Election 2019: Liberals and NDP lose support in key swing ridings, Conservatives gain, says new poll
Credit to Author: Lori Culbert| Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2019 23:24:12 +0000
The Liberals and NDP have lost ground in Western Canada, and the surging Conservatives could dominate in several key swing ridings in this month’s federal election, says a new Angus Reid poll.
“The Liberal party looks to have lost considerable ground to the opposition Conservative party,” Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute, said of the poll results west of Ontario.
The poll analyzed the current political leanings of voters in 67 ridings in Canada where, in the 2015 election, the winner and the second-place finisher were separated by five percentage points or less.
It found some regional differences in 2019, such as the Bloc overtaking a slumping NDP in Quebec and nail-biter races between the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario. In B.C., there is a wider variety of competitions, Kurl said.
“The vote shifts in B.C. could well be more dynamic than in other parts of the country,” she said. “There are NDP-Liberal fights, there are Liberal-Conservative fights, and there are Green-NDP fights looming.”
The poll grouped together 17 Western Canada swing ridings — eight in B.C. and nine in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba — where the aggregate results show the Tories pulling ahead.
Kurl said the survey sample size was too small to predict outcomes for individual seats. It is also unclear whether swelling Conservative support is as strong in B.C. as in the three other Western provinces, who all have centre-right provincial governments.
However, when asked “In this upcoming federal election, which party’s candidate will you be most likely to support?”, 34 per cent of B.C. swing-riding voters said Conservatives, 18 per cent said Liberal,s 13 per cent said Greens, 10 per cent said NDP, and 13 per cent were undecided. The support for the Conservatives was much higher, at about 44 per cent, in the other three Western provinces, and support for the Liberals was slightly lower.
When it comes to party leaders, B.C. voters tend to like Conservative Andrew Scheer as much as their Western neighbours. When asked, “What is your overall impression of each of the following party leaders?”, more than 40 per cent of Western Canada respondents chose “very favourable or favourable.” Only a quarter of respondents said this of Trudeau, putting him in fourth place, behind the Green’s Elizabeth May and the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh.
Here are the B.C. swing rides to keep an eye on, according to Angus Reid:
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge is traditional Conservative territory that Liberal Dan Ruimy won in 2015, propelled by Justin Trudeau’s red wave. Former two-term B.C. Liberal MLA Marc Dalton is trying to turn the riding blue again. The NDP placed a close third here in 2015, and candidate John Mogk hopes to keep his party in the hunt.
Graphic by Postmedia.
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam elected Liberal Ron McKinnon in 2015, despite the riding’s traditional Conservative roots. Nicholas Insley is the new Conservative candidate hoping to topple McKinnon. The NDP, whose candidate is Christina Gower, finished a close third and the Greens were a distant fourth in 2015.
Mission Matsqui—Fraser Canyon is the third example of a traditionally Conservative seat north of the Fraser River that was snatched away by the Liberals in 2015. Conservative Brad Vis lost by a narrow margin, and is back again in 2019 to battle one-term Liberal Jati Sidhu. The NDP and Greens placed far behind the other parties in 2015.
Graphic by Postmedia.
South Surrey—White Rock was narrowly won by former Surrey Mayor Dianne Rock for the Conservatives in 2015, but she resigned her seat and the riding was flipped to red in the ensuing byelection by former provincial cabinet minister Gordie Hogg. His main rival in 2017, former Conservative MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay, is back to try to paint the riding blue again. The NDP and Greens did not do well here in the past two elections.
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo has been held by Conservative Cathy McLeod since 2008, who is being challenged this time by high-profile Liberal candidate Terry Lake, a former B.C. health minister. This was a tight three-way race in 2015, but the NDP vote may collapse here since it had two candidates step down and just named a replacement, Cynthia Egli, who has no photo or bio yet on the party’s website.
Graphic by Postmedia.
Richmond Centre is a traditionally safe Tory seat but Conservative Alice Wong eked out only a slim victory in 2015. She will try to fend off new Liberal challenger Steven Kou. The NDP and Greens were far behind in 2015.
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola was narrowly won by Conservative Dan Albas in 2015, who was first elected in 2011 and will try to fend off challenger Mary Ann Murphy of the Liberals. The NDP and Greens were far behind here in 2015.
Kootenay—Columbia was won by just 282 seats in 2015 by the NDP’s Wayne Stetski, who unseated the previous Tory MP. Conservative Rob Morrison will try to snatch the seat back from Stekski in 2019. The NDP and Liberals were far behind here in 2015.
The online poll surveyed 1,420 Canadians in the 67 swing ridings from Sept. 19 to 27. It’s margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20. A PDF of the entire poll can be found here.
Twitter: @loriculbert