Who is No. 1 in fantasy drafts: KAT, Giannis, AD, Steph?
Some years we see a clear-cut No. 1 pick in most fantasy basketball leagues. Not this season. With so much star power available in the first round, several players are entirely worthy of taking the top spot.
Who do our experts believe should go atop points and roto leagues: Karl-Anthony Towns, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis or Stephen Curry?
Eric Karabell: I like him No. 1 in roto and I stick with Antetokounmpo at the very top in points leagues as well. I love the unique combination of volume and efficiency and believe he can continue to get better in each respect. Others projected for the top spot boast durability or volume concerrns, with Davis a question mark for me in each aspect. I consider consistency with top picks, and Antetokounmpo has that and keeps getting better, as his scoring, rebounding and passing numbers keep on rising. In addition, unlike the Lakers and Rockets, for example, the Bucks revolves around the star with few options to decrease volume. Ultimately, it is tough to mess up the first overall pick, but I stick with Antetokounmpo first.
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André Snellings: Antetokounmpo is my No. 1 pick in points leagues for the second season in a row. Antetokounmpo has increased his scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage in every season of his career and, at still only 24 years of age, he is still on the upswing of his career. The construction of the Bucks team guarantees that he should continue to maximize his scoring, assist and rebound potential this season. Antetokounmpo’s drives to the rim are nigh unstoppable when he’s surrounded by 3-point shooters, and when defenses do collapse, it allows him to generate volume assists as evidenced by his career-best 5.9 APG last season.
Plus, with poor rebounders like Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova often playing the 5, Antetokounmpo should continue to clean the glass and maintain his role as the defensive anchor on the Bucks. Finally, he has never missed more than 10 games in any season of his career and averages 77.5 games per season, which makes him a relative iron man compared to primary competition Davis.
Jim McCormick: Discerning the top player to acquire for points formats was tricky for me this season, with ADs and Giannis both competing with Towns. Towns is my choice, given an awesome series of opportunity and production indicators.
Volume is king in points leagues, as we simply want the most total contributions to the sum versus the categorical balance valued in rotisserie. For instance, Towns was sixth in the NBA last season with 20.3 rebounding chances per game (defined as being within 3.5 feet of an available rebound), just ahead of both Davis and Antetokounmpo. Towns led the league last season with 12.9 post-ups per game, while also making 41 percent of his 4.4 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts per game.
If that sounds like an amazing blend of skills, it’s because that’s just who Towns is — one of four players on record to have averaged at least 22 PPG while making at least 39% of his career 3-point attempts, joining the likes of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Curry in this club. I’d be happy with any of the trio I considered, but Towns might just have the most intriguing ceiling of them all this season in points leagues.
Joe Kaiser: Davis gets the nod for me ahead of James Harden, Antetokounmpo and Towns. I expect the 26-year-old big man to have a monster season in his first year with LeBron James in LA, as this could be his best chance to advance deep into the playoffs since joining the league in 2012-13.
Davis brings the scoring I’m looking for first in points leagues — and you can expect him to go for at least 25 PPG again this season — but is also coming off a career-high 12.0 RPG while also being one of the league’s best bigs in terms of assists, steals and blocks. All those add up in points leagues.
Jim McCormick: Curry played 271 minutes last season with both Durant and Klay Thompson off the floor. In this sample, the two-time MVP consumed a 44.9% usage rate that would make even Harden envious, while the Warriors scored 114.8 points per 100 possessions (a rate just shy of the Warriors’ league-leading offensive rating of 115) while producing 42.8 points per 36 minutes. No, really. In 2017-18 in Curry averaged 45 points per 36 minutes in the 232 minutes he played without Durant or Thompson on the floor. Do you see where I’m going here?
I absolutely believe Curry is going to win the scoring title, set the all-time record (once again) for 3-point production and possibly set a career mark for usage rate this season as the unquestioned top option on one of the top-heaviest rosters in the NBA. You will get brilliant shooting percentages from all three levels, elite scoring, dominant 3-point production, and entirely useful steal and assist rates if can you secure Curry in rotisserie formats this season.
Eric Karabell: What is not to like? Antetokounmpo got even better last season, upping his scoring, rebounding and assist totals, boasting a monster true shooting percentage and showing signs, although not in the actual percentage, that he could become more relevant in total 3-pointers as well.
Roto investors love the across-the-board aid, with the only real issue being the high turnover total. Still, I know the reasoning for other players; my issue with Davis is generally durability. With Steph, I worry about the same thing, especially if his team struggles. Harden will be fighting with Russell Westbrook for one basketball. I think Antetokounmpo is safe and will have the ball in his hands as much as he wants, and he’ll improve on his stats.
André Snellings: Towns is my top pick in roto leagues because his game has no roto weakness, he is the absolute focal point of his team, he is young enough to still be on the upswing toward his physical peak, and he has a history of wonderful health.
Last season, Towns averaged 26.0 PPG (53.7 FG%, 82.4 FT%), 13.0 RPG, 3.6 APG, 2.0 3PG, 1.6 BPG and 0.9 SPG during the 58 games between November 9 and March 23. These are baseline expectations, and there is a good chance that he increases his volume on both sides of the court this season. The offense will be built entirely around him from camp on, and Towns’ defensive improvements allowed the team to move on from Taj Gibson and play him next to a stretch-4 in Robert Covington.
Add in that Towns has missed only five games in four NBA seasons, and he has the well-rounded roto production to outpace Antetokounmpo’s relative weaknesses in free throws and 3-point shooting and the health to surpass Davis at the top of the rankings.
Joe Kaiser: While Davis may not be the 3-point shooter that Towns is, he is a much better contributor as far as blocks and steals go, and those categories are much more difficult to account for when building a team; these days, everyone shoots the 3-ball. I expect Davis to flourish in his first year teaming with LeBron in Los Angeles, and with the Lakers lacking depth up front, I anticipate Davis being counted on heavily over the course of the season while still getting his occasional days of rest. I’m not as concerned about his durability as I was earlier in his career after seeing him play in 75 games in back-to-back seasons in 2016-17 and 2017-18.