Douglas Todd: 'Values chasm' between young and old matters in this election, says pollster
Credit to Author: Douglas Todd| Date: Fri, 13 Sep 2019 02:03:38 +0000
The group of friends inside the University of B.C.’s student union building tended to be strong on protecting the environment, on governments spending more money, and on promoting Canada’s multicultural mosaic.
They didn’t agree on everything, and welcomed open discussion, but together they offered a glimpse into what veteran Vancouver pollster Angus Reid says is a “values chasm” between millennials and those over 50 in Canada, which he believes will have a significant affect on the federal election.
Canadians under 35 are generally more “libertarian,” less nationalistic, and more likely to celebrate differences in ethnicity, gender and sexuality than older generations, Reid said about extensive polling that helps explain some of the country’s key cultural and political conflicts.
The veteran analyst, however, joined with authors of a new book on Canadian millennials to note the social-media generation — while believing they have a harder time landing a well-paying job and finding affordable housing — are not particularly active in society. They’re less likely to follow the news and less likely than older people to vote.
Despite this relative lack of engagement, millennials and others under age 40 are a crucial audience in the political campaign leading to the Oct. 21 election, said Reid.
That is part of the reason the pollster believes Liberal leader Justin Trudeau is working to “demonize” Conservative leader Andrew Scheer on some of his values, accusing him of being weak on abortion, as well as Indigenous and LGBQT rights.
Mitch McGuire.
Maria Anzola.
Reflecting on some of these statistical findings in their conversations at UBC, Mitch McGuire, 22, said he is again voting for Trudeau and doesn’t like that some Canadians who don’t have faith in the value of diversity might quietly be drawn to Scheer.
Maria Anzola, 21, an international student from Brazil, said she believes the multicultural “mosaic,” in which “separate pieces” come together to form a society, is a better model for countries like Brazil and Canada than a “melting pot.”
The Angus Reid institute’s latest figures on the four leading parties lines up with that of other polls, suggesting 36 per cent of Canadians support the Conservatives, 32 per cent the Liberals, 14 per cent the NDP and nine per cent the Greens. (In B.C., the breakdown is 35 per cent Conservative, 29 per cent Liberal, 17 per cent Green and 15 per cent NDP.)
Even though the personal approval ratings of Trudeau and Scheer are both extremely low, the institute’s polling found Scheer’s strongest supporters are males over 35.
Meanwhile, Trudeau’s strongest admirers are women under age 35.
The founder of the non-profit Angus Reid Institute said the major campaign problem for Jagmeet Singh, leader of the NDP, which tends to do well among the young, is to differentiate himself from Trudeau’s vigorous signalling in support of celebrating difference. “He’s going to have to speak up so as to avoid looking like a Trudeau camp follower.”
There are many reasons to expect millennials will continue to tend to veer to the centre-left and older generations to the centre-right, says Alberta scholar Joel Thiessen, co-author with the University of Lethbridge’s Reginald Bibby and sociologist Monetta Bailey of the just-released book, The Millennial Mosaic: How pluralism and choice are shaping Canadian youth and the future of Canada.
“There is no doubt that while many Canadians across cohorts are more inclusive and tolerant than in the past, millennials lead the way here versus older generations. So theoretically we should anticipate millennials to lean more toward Liberal, NDP and Green policies,” said Thiessen, 38, of Ambrose University in Calgary.
Millennials are also more concerned about their finances, the environment and Indigenous relations than older generations, Thiessen said. But, “this doesn’t mean they are actively involved in initiatives to make a difference in these areas, since most are not.”
Monetta Bailey.
Sociologist Bailey, 42, added that millennials are Canada’s “most diverse cohort in terms of race, ethnicity and immigrant status, but also in terms of gender diversity and ideologies.” Since the authors have found people of colour make up 30 per cent of all millennials, and 50 per of those in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, Bailey said “it will be interesting to see how much the political candidates can tap into this diversity.”
In regards to specific issues, the three sociologists found millennials are 18 percentage points less likely than the general population, at 89 per cent, to believe “immigrants to Canada have an obligation to learn Canadian ways.”
In addition, 53 per cent of millennials, compared to 33 per cent of those over 50, “favour Canada being a mosaic versus a melting pot,” says The Millennial Mosaic, which points out that as Canadians age so does their backing of the melting-pot model, which emphasizes integration and national cohesion.
On questions surrounding what it means to be Canadian, the Angus Reid Institute has found other significant gaps between younger and older generations.
“Attitudes toward nationalism are almost night and day between the under-40s and the over-50s. The younger cohort tends to be less emotionally attached to the country,” Reid said.
Kush Jobanputra.
Asked to respond to such findings, Kush Jobanputra, 22, joined his UBC friends in unanimously opposing “nationalism,” which they defined as a tool of oppression used by authoritarian governments.
But Jobanputra also added that millennials are mostly “proud in the fact they’re Canadian. I think people are grateful to be in this part of the world.”
Separate from political issues, Millennial Mosaic reveals startling psychological data, which shows under-35s are significantly more worried about money than older people and are much more lonely and anxious than previous generations were at their age.
Forty-five per cent of Canadian millennials are concerned about “loneliness,” compared to 23 per cent of those over age 50, says the Millennial Mosaic. A high ratio of millennials, two of five, also say they’re concerned about their “looks” and “inferiority feelings.”
Jobanputra and friends chalked up much of millennials’ low self-esteem to the envy that can easily be manufactured by all-pervasive social media, which can create the illusion most other people are happy and in relationships.
Despite polling data showing sharp differences between younger and older generations on values, it’s crucial to not exaggerate them, to remember they’re only statistical tendencies and are not absolute views of each cohort.
It’s dangerous to stereotype any generation and divide them into being all one way, since some younger people steer conservative and many older people have been strong supporters of environmentalism, tolerance, economic equality and pluralism their entire lives.
To illustrate, Thiessen tells the story of a much-discussed sculpture he recently saw in Norway called “The Monolith.” The five-metre-high piece uses 121 different figures to document the cycle of life. “The youngest are on the top and the oldest are at the bottom.”
The first most common interpretation of the sculpture, says Thiessen, is “youth are valued while seniors are diminished,” while the second interpretation is “older people are esteemed because they’re the pillars holding up the highly valued young.”
Thiessen’s wise recommendation is to remember both younger and older generations have much to offer as Canada moves forward, including into the next election.