Viewers guide: Can Carmouche pull off a stunner against Shevchenko?
When the UFC announced it would open a female flyweight division in 2017, the first question many people had wasn’t whether or not Valentina Shevchenko would hold the title. It was: Who in the world will challenge her?
From 2015 to late 2017, Shevchenko (17-3) was a two-time title challenger at bantamweight, but it was always clear she was undersized for that 135-pound weight class. There was a sense that the UFC would eventually open a 125-pound division, and that when it did, Shevchenko would dominate it.
Valentina Shevchenko won’t be lacking motivation on Saturday. Not only will the dominant UFC women’s flyweight champion put her title on the line against Liz Carmouche in Montevideo, Uruguay, but she’ll also have a chance at revenge. Before they landed in the UFC, Carmouche defeated Shevchenko by TKO nine years ago.
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche
• Saturday, Montevideo, Uruguay
• Prelims: ESPN+, 5 p.m. ET
• Main card: ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET
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Thus far, no one has challenged that assumption. Shevchenko won the title in December, in a lopsided decision over former strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. She then defended her belt in June, as a 14-to-1 betting favorite, against Jessica Eye. That one ended in a ferocious, highlight-reel, head-kick knockout.
This weekend, Shevchenko seeks her second title defense against Liz Carmouche (13-6) in the main event of UFC Fight Night in Montevideo, Uruguay. Shevchenko is, once again, a heavy betting favorite — but this matchup comes with a twist. Carmouche defeated Shevchenko via TKO back in 2010, on a small MMA show in Oklahoma.
Presumably, the UFC’s female flyweight division will continue to evolve, as the promotion signs more talent, more bantamweights move down and select strawweights move up. But even when looking ahead, it’s difficult to peg anyone who wouldn’t go into a flyweight bout against Shevchenko as a sizable underdog.
Can Carmouche shock the world and force her history against Shevchenko to repeat itself? Not many are predicting her to do so. But such is the case right now for anyone brave enough to challenge Shevchenko at 125 pounds.
6-0: Shevchenko’s UFC record when scoring multiple takedowns. When she gets one or fewer, she is 0-2.
67.6: Takedown accuracy of Carmouche, by percentage, putting her fourth among active UFC fighters, behind Robbie Lawler (77.3), Nordine Taleb (76.2) and Islam Makhachev (70.8). She is seventh all time.
16:10: Average fight time for Shevchenko (in minutes and seconds), tied with Jose Aldo for fifth-longest among active fighters. They’re 10th all time. Dominick Cruz is by far the all-time leader, at 21:00.
2,359: Days it will have been, on fight night, since Carmouche faced Ronda Rousey for the UFC women’s bantamweight title back on Feb. 23, 2013. That means it was six years, five months and 17 days ago, the fourth-longest gap between title shots in UFC history. The longest: Dan Henderson‘s gap of eight years, seven months and six days between title fights.
12: Finishes by Shevchenko among her 17 career wins (seven submissions, five KO/TKOs).
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
“The fight was going good. Everything was going to plan. I was winning the striking and then I took her down. At that point, I tried to make a leg lock, and she threw a kick from the ground. We continued to fight and I realized, ‘There’s a lot of blood everywhere.’ I was surprised. I thought, ‘Whose blood is that?’ When the round was stopped, I saw that it was my blood.” –Shevchenko, speaking to ESPN about her first fight with Carmouche
A look at Shevchenko’s dominant performance versus Jedrzejczyk:
The history between Shevchenko and Carmouche makes for a compelling story, but it should be noted Carmouche earned this title shot by collecting four wins in her past five fights. She may be a long shot, but she’s the best woman for the job at this point in time. A former bantamweight herself, Carmouche is physically strong and experienced. In short, she does pose a threat. But this is, has been and will remain Shevchenko’s division. Shevchenko via TKO, second round.
Katlyn Chookagian would appear to be at the head of the line. She’s 12-2, with her only two career losses coming against Carmouche and Shevchenko’s last challenger, Jessica Eye. The next-best option would be Joanne Calderwood (13-4), but her last fight was a loss — to Chookagian.
Some losses don’t make you a loser
Tecia Torres enters her strawweight prelim with unbeaten Marina Rodriguez mired in a three-fight losing streak. But consider who handed “The Tiny Tornado” those defeats.
Torres (10-4) last fought in March, when she lost a unanimous decision to Zhang Weili, who in less than a month will challenge for the UFC championship.
Torres went into that bout coming off another decision loss — to former champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
And prior to that, Torres began her skid in February 2018 with a decision loss to Jessica Andrade, who now reigns at 115 pounds and will defend against Zhang on Aug. 31 in China.
The only other defeat on Torres’ resume? It came by decision in 2016 against Rose Namajunas, who would go on to become champion.
Four losses, three to champions and the other to someone who soon could be one. And Torres went the distance with all of them.
Rodriguez, meanwhile, is 11-0-1 but has never been in with anyone of the caliber of Torres’ opposition.
You’ll see this fight tomorrow on SportsCenter
The most consecutive finishes by a welterweight in UFC history:
Vicente Luque (16-6-1) vs. Mike Perry (13-4) in the welterweight co-main event is pay-per-view material. Not PPV headliner material, obviously, but this is the kind of bout you’d almost expect you’d have to pay for. Both guys have all-action styles.
Luque is 9-1 in the UFC, with nine finishes — that’s tied for the third most in UFC welterweight history. His last five wins have been finishes — also a record.
Perry is 6-4 in the UFC, but four of those wins have been finishes.
Expect a standup battle. And a knockout.
A must-win for two light heavyweights
As fast as Volkan Oezdemir‘s rise through the UFC’s light heavyweight rankings was, so too has been his fall. Oezdemir caught lightning in a bottle in 2017, as he won his first three appearances in the UFC and somehow found himself fighting Daniel Cormier for the belt at a point in his career when he hadn’t even been training wrestling all that long.
His fall from the top has been just as startling. After losing to Cormier in January 2018, Oezdemir has dropped two more to Anthony Smith and Dominick Reyes. Oezdemir is only 29, but he needs a turnaround now. It’s been more than two years since his last win.
Time is working against Ilir Latifi, 36, who was never really mentioned in the title picture despite a 5-1 record from 2015 to early 2018. Latifi is coming off a loss to Corey Anderson in December, as well as a back injury earlier this year. A loss would drop him further from any title challenger conversations.