Why Covington’s takedown ability will set the tone against Lawler
Colby Covington previews his fight vs. Robbie Lawler and offers a reason why Lawler left American Top Team. (1:50)
The UFC will host its fifth full card on ESPN on Saturday. In the main event, former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler will be looking to get back on track against former interim champion Colby Covington. A win for Covington could lead to a title shot against welterweight titleholder Kamaru Usman.
Lawler made his UFC debut back in 2002, and he will certainly have an experience edge in the cage. Covington is still learning on the job in some ways and still relies heavily on his wrestling background. This dynamic creates a variety of interesting clashes of styles. The following statistical categories illuminate those contrasting styles, which could end up making the difference on Saturday.
The title picture in the welterweight division should clear up when the UFC hits Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday. In the main event, top contender Colby Covington takes on former champion Robbie Lawler, with a title shot likely next for Covington should he earn a victory. “Chaos” is on a six-fight win streak but hasn’t fought in more than a year. Lawler, meanwhile, hasn’t won in the Octagon in more than two years.
UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler
• Saturday, Newark, N.J.
• Prelims: ESPN, noon ET
• Main card: ESPN, 3 p.m. ET
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It is clear from looking at their striking differential that Covington and Lawler both have different approaches to fighting. Despite having much less experience in MMA, Covington lands more strikes than he absorbs. During his UFC career, he has landed 3.26 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.20 per minute, for a plus-1.06 differential. On the other hand, Lawler has almost always seemed open to absorbing punishment if it allows him the opportunity to land his own shots. He has absorbed 3.95 significant strikes per minute while landing only 3.60 in his UFC/Strikeforce/Pride FC/EliteXC career. This leaves him with a minus-0.35 differential, which is third-worst among ranked welterweights.
Due to his reckless nature, this measure may not really say much about Lawler’s effectiveness as a fighter. In fact, he has been outlanded in all three of his past three victories. However, the measure does say a lot about the differences in the striking styles of the two fighters. Covington will likely try to find a way to stay ahead of Lawler in terms of landing, while “Ruthless” will look to make the harder impact and the better impression on the judges with each of his blows.
If Covington wishes to stay ahead of Lawler in terms of the significant strike count, he may need to increase his regular striking output. During his UFC career, he has landed only 38% of his significant strike attempts, which is the second-worst accuracy among ranked welterweights. Despite being seemingly willing to absorb punishment, Lawler actually has strong defense from a percentage standpoint. In major promotions, he has managed to avoid 60% of his opponents’ attempts.
Due to his substandard accuracy, Covington has had to outwork his opponents in the UFC. He has averaged 8.37 significant strike attempts per minute. If Lawler is able to continue his dodge rate, Covington will likely need to increase his volume even higher. For someone who is not an entirely experienced striker, this could create the openings that Lawler needs to land fight-changing strikes.
Lawler has landed 16 knockdowns and stopped 12 fights with strikes during his combined UFC, Strikeforce, Pride FC and EliteXC career. He has always been a threat to finish the fight regardless of how behind on the strike count he falls. This is a clear advantage that he has over Covington. Lawler lands 0.67 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which is well ahead of Covington, who has only landed one knockdown in his 10-fight UFC career.
Since Lawler is the one with the finishing edge, he will remain a threat throughout the five-round fight. On the other hand, Covington will be focused on winning at least three of the five rounds and surviving to the final bell. Both fighters have clear paths to victory, but if current trends continue a lot of things will have to go right for Covington over the course of a 25-minute contest.
While Lawler has the advantage in terms of power striking, Covington has perhaps an even bigger edge when it comes to takedowns. The former Oregon State All-American wrestler has landed 5.63 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Not only is that takedown rate ranked first among ranked welterweights, but it is also nearly three times the average among the same group (1.88). His 48 landed takedowns in the promotion are eighth-most among active UFC fighters.
Despite also coming from a wrestling background, Lawler has always been less dependent on his ground game. He lands only 0.76 takedowns per 15 minutes and allows his opponents to land 1.56. Covington will almost certainly come out looking for takedowns in this fight, and Lawler must be able to keep this fight standing in order to implement his offense. Lawler will not only need to stop takedowns, but he will also need to extricate himself from the grappling realm following an attempt. Like many former wrestlers, Covington is able to control position even when he fails on an initial takedown attempt.
Even though Covington has standout wrestling and takedown ability, he has not really been able to translate that into effective ground offense so far in his UFC career. Even with his 48 takedowns, he has only managed to land 71 significant ground strikes, and he has never landed more than 16 significant ground strikes in a fight.
Lawler certainly allows his fair share of takedowns, but he has also displayed solid ground striking defense. He has avoided 45 percent of his opponents’ significant attempts on the floor, and he has absorbed only 55 significant grounds strikes in his 32-fight major-promotion career.
Covington will likely land takedowns in this fight, but his inability to score meaningful offense and damage on the bottom will allow Lawler to stay in the fight. Even if the former champion spends the majority of a round stuck on the bottom, the fight will eventually return to the feet where he can make an impact with his power striking.