Closing distance critical for UFC 239 title challengers
The top of UFC 239 features two title fights, showcasing seemingly unstoppable champions against strong, veteran contenders. In the main event, Thiago Santos will be the latest fighter to try to solve the puzzle that is Jon Jones. Amanda Nunes will look to continue her run in the bantamweight division against former champion Holly Holm in the penultimate bout.
Both champions have clear and obvious advantages across multiple statistical categories, but there are clear paths to victory for the challengers as well. Let’s look at the statistical categories that could be key in terms of determining the winners Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Jones’ length and fighting style have almost always given him an advantage over his opponents. He stays on the outside and lands with a variety of distance strikes, while opponents struggle to close the distance and land. For his UFC career, he has landed 4.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbed only 2.05 per minute. That leaves him with a +2.43 striking differential, which is well above the average for a ranked light heavyweight (+1.44). However, in this contest, the striking differential actually favors the challenger. Santos absorbs slightly more significant strikes on a per-minute basis (2.16), but he lands 5.01 per minute, leaving him with a +2.85 differential. “Marreta” Santos has not been outlanded by an opponent since 2016, and he is landing 5.67 significant strikes per minute over his past five fights.
Though Jones has relied on his ability to outland his opponents during his historic UFC run, it appears, at least at a glance, that he might not enjoy that luxury against Santos. However, a deeper dive into the numbers illustrates the champion’s true prowess.
Santos’ striking has been superb recently, and his career numbers are actually better than those of Jones. However, Jones still has the advantage when it comes to striking at distance, which is defined as standing and not in the clinch. During his UFC career, 61% of his landed significant strikes have come at distance. Santos also lands a fair share of his blows at distance (47%), but his overall striking game is much more reliant on his ability to land on the ground. Of his landed significant strikes, 32% have come on the floor.
The UFC has loaded up another pay-per-view card Saturday, featuring two title fights: Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos and Amanda Nunes vs. Holly Holm.
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
• Early prelims: ESPN+ 6:15 p.m. ET
• Prelims: ESPN 8 p.m. ET
• Main card: ESPN+ PPV 10 p.m. ET – Buy now | Get ESPN+ support
UFC 239 content
• The blueprint to beating Jon Jones
• Holm ready to change her legacy
• The UFC’s 22 Hall of Fame moments
• Who else deserves to be in the UFC HOF?
• Inside Thiago Santos’ final preparation for Jon Jones
• Luke Rockhold’s dual careers
• How the UFC’s mighty have fallen? At the hands of Amanda Nunes
• Detail: Daniel Cormier on Amanda Nunes
When including only striking at distance, Jones has landed 2.75 per minute, while absorbing only 1.54, for a +1.21 differential. The measure puts him ahead of Santos, who holds a +0.97 differential at distance.
Jones also holds an advantage in terms of striking accuracy at distance. Both fighters are extremely accurate overall. Jones lands 57% of his significant attempts, and Santos lands 50%. At distance, Jones maintains a 50% accuracy rate, but Santos’ accuracy declines all the way to 40%.
Santos will need to force the fight into his favored positions to maintain his advantage against Jones. If the fight plays out at distance, this could easily turn into another vintage performance for “Bones.”
Though Santos is hoping to control the position of this fight, he might not be very successful. He averages only 1.00 takedown per 15 minutes, and he has landed only 40% of his takedown attempts. While those are not dismal numbers, the task of taking down Jones has proven overly difficult for even some of the most talented wrestlers in the sport. Jones has successfully defended 95% of his opponents’ takedown attempts, and he has been taken down only twice. On top of that, he has absorbed a total of six significant ground strikes in his 20-fight UFC career.
If anything, it is more likely that Jones will be the one scoring takedowns and working from the top position. He has gotten away from his wrestling as he has evolved as an MMA fighter, but he still averages 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Though Santos has had success striking on the ground, he has also proven to be somewhat vulnerable when it comes to the submission game.
Santos has allowed 0.73 passes per takedown. His opponents have registered 0.63 submission attempts per 15 minutes of fight time, and he has two first-round submission losses on his UFC résumé. Not only will he struggle to force his ground striking offense against Jones, but he might also put himself into harm’s way trying to grapple against Jones.
One factor that has consistently held back Holm since she converted from boxing to MMA in 2011 is her accuracy or lack thereof. During her UFC career, she has landed only 34% of her attempted significant strikes, which is last among ranked bantamweights. Not only has she landed with substandard accuracy overall, but she has also struggled to land head strikes consistently. In her career-defining win over Ronda Rousey in 2015, Holm landed 66% of her significant head-strike attempts. However, in the rest of her career combined, she has managed to land only 21% of those attempts.
This is not a weakness shared by Nunes. The champion lands 51% of her significant strikes, which is above average for a ranked bantamweight (46%). In terms of significant head strikes, she lands 46%. Holm’s inability to consistently land has really hurt her in the past. Against Nunes, it might really give her a lot of problems since the champion has no issues in this department.
An obvious result of poor striking accuracy is a lack of landed strikes. Holm attempts 8.26 significant strikes per minute, which is only slightly behind Nunes, who attempts 9.06. However, thanks to her depressed accuracy, she lands only 2.82 significant strikes per minute. Holm is solid defensively and allows her opponents to land only 2.80 per minute, which is fifth best among the ranked fighters in her division. Even with quality defense, though, her lack of effective striking leaves her with only a +0.02 differential.
Nunes attempts a similar number of significant strikes, and since she is overly accurate, she lands at an impressive rate. During her UFC career, she has landed 4.65 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 2.88. Her +1.77 striking differential is the second highest among the top 16 bantamweights.
Unless Holm finds a way to improve her accuracy, she will need to throw many more attempts to keep pace with Nunes in terms of landing. Often, a fighter might experience a decline in defense when trying to increase striking volume. That would also probably get Holm into trouble against Nunes. The “Lioness” has landed 0.75 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time in her UFC career and dropped former featherweight champion Cris Cyborg twice in her last fight.
Though the striking numbers do not paint a positive picture for Holm, she really is at her best when she is striking on her feet. During her UFC career, 83% of her landed significant strikes have come at distance. However, in her most recent fight against Megan Anderson, Holm showed some improvement when it comes to closing the distance and looking for takedowns. In that fight, she landed four of eight takedown attempts after scoring only two takedowns in her previous eight fights. Going into the fight, she had not landed a takedown since 2015 and failed on nine straight attempts against Germaine de Randamie.
Going for takedowns against Nunes might be a solid stylistic choice for Holm. The champion’s last loss came against Cat Zingano in 2014. In that fight, Zingano was successful on all three of her takedown attempts. Valentina Shevchenko also had some success against the champion in their first fight after scoring a takedown and working from the top position.
Even if Holm does try to wrestle against Nunes, it might be the “Lioness” who has the better skills in that area. She stops 78% of the takedown attempts against her, and she lands 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage.