Quarterfinals preview: Predictions, key players and what to watch for
The ESPN FC crew look ahead to Argentina’s matchup with Venezuela and question if Messi and company can leave their group stage struggles behind them. (2:01)
We are down to the final eight teams in the Copa America. Guest nations Japan and Qatar have gone home but we’re left with the giants of South American football like Argentina, Uruguay and hosts Brazil, as well as unfancied teams like Venezuela and Paraguay.
Here is the lowdown on each of the four quarterfinal clashes (all live on ESPN+).
Jump to: Brazil vs. Paraguay | Argentina vs. Venezuela | Colombia vs. Chile | Uruguay vs. Peru
WHERE: Gremio Arena, Porto Alegre
WHEN: Thursday, 6/27, 8:30 p.m. ET live on ESPN+
THE STORY SO FAR: Brazil lost their present (Neymar) and future (Vinicius Jr.) stars ahead of the tournament but nevertheless took seven of nine points in the group stage. In fact, apart from a nervy start in the opener against Bolivia and some missed chances (and great goalkeeping) against Venezuela, they would have made it three out of three.
It’s tempting to say Paraguay advanced as Paraguay often do via the old formula of physicality, attrition and the generosity of a tournament format that allows you qualify for the quarterfinals without winning a game. And, in fact, since 2007, they’ve won just two of 23 major tournament matches. That said, they did squander a late two-goal lead against Qatar and, relative to past iterations, this Paraguay is slightly easier on the eye. Slightly.
BRAZIL WILL ADVANCE IF… They remember who they are and why they’re here. The talent gap is evident and the addition of prolific wide men like Gabriel Jesus and Everton lets you get away with a valuable front man who doesn’t score, much like Roberto Firmino. All they need to is be patient and execute and in any case, Tite has enough weapons off the bench to find a solution if his starters aren’t getting it done.
PARAGUAY WILL ADVANCE IF… Coach Eduardo Berizzo finds the right balance between the football he wants to play (open, movement-oriented) and the football he needs to play (batten down the hatches, bodies in front of the goal). That means creating density in front of the goal, making the pitch big when you regain possession, finding Miguel Almiron and letting whichever big man leads the line — Federico Santander or Oscar Cardozo — do his thing in the air. It’s not much, but it’s what they’ve got.
– Copa America: All you need to know
– Full Copa America fixtures schedule
KEY MAN, BRAZIL: Philippe Coutinho
He has blown hot and cold in this Copa America, an improvement over his Barcelona form (which was mostly cold and cold). But Tite has faith in him, keeping Lucas Paqueta on the shelf and starting him in every game. Should see plenty of the ball.
KEY MAN, PARAGUAY: Miguel Almiron
He has the turn of pace and the ability to find teammates on the counter that are pretty much Paraguay’s only threat, other than set pieces. He needs to be involved at every opportunity.
PREDICTION: Brazil 3-0 Paraguay
That’s what logic says but history says otherwise. Paraguay have won penalty shootouts against Brazil in each of their last two Copa America meetings (2011 and 2015). But to paraphrase Henry Ford, “History is more or less bunk.”
WHERE: Maracana, Rio de Janeiro
WHEN: Friday, 6/28, 3 p.m. ET live on ESPN+
THE STORY SO FAR: Long the confederation whipping boys, who were outside FIFA’s top 100 for most of the 1990s, Venezuela are no pushover these days and emerged through the group undefeated, holding Brazil to a draw along the way.
Meanwhile Argentina’s Copa America looks a lot like their Russia 2018 dumpster fire despite Lionel Scaloni’s best efforts to freshen up the team. Beaten by Colombia and needing a penalty save to avoid defeat to Paraguay, they scraped through thanks to a win over Qatar. They’ll be hoping it’s like hitting the reset button and that their tournament starts right here, right now.
VENEZUELA WILL ADVANCE IF… Salomon Rondon‘s size and movement wreaks havoc with Argentina’s easily frazzled back line. To do this, they’ll need to disrupt the opposing midfield enough to starve the supply to the front and Robocop skipper Tomas Rincon will be key in doing so.
ARGENTINA WILL ADVANCE IF… Lionel Messi dropping into midfield to combine with Giovani Lo Celso and Rodrigo De Paul does enough to create opportunities for the front men (or, indeed, Messi himself) while also providing enough cover for the back four, particularly when it comes to runners from midfield.
KEY MAN, VENEZUELA: Wuilker Farinez
Only 21 years old but is the sort of goalkeeper who keeps you in games regularly. His agility and positioning are exceptional and he plays with a confidence and a self-assuredness of a man 10 years his senior.
KEY MAN, ARGENTINA: Lionel Messi
Who else? You really need to read words about why he’s important? OK then… If Scaloni, as expected, goes with the Sergio Aguero–Lautaro Martinez partnership up front, it will leave Messi with the freedom (and responsibility) to find space where he can do damage.
PREDICTION: Venezuela 0-1 Argentina
They’re not quite clicking yet, but we’re seeing progress. And they’ve got Messi.
WHERE: Arena Corinthians, Sao Paulo
WHEN: Friday, 6/28, 7 p.m. ET, live on ESPN+
THE STORY SO FAR: Colombia sailed through their group with three wins, though the one against Qatar wasn’t quite as comfortable and they rested several players against Paraguay. Still, there’s plenty of quality and experience, plus a savvy manager in Carlos Queiroz who has made the right changes at the right time.
Chile won their first two games before making a calculated risk and leaving out several starters who were a booking away from a suspension against Uruguay (a game they lost). There’s still plenty of holdovers from the side that won this competition in 2015, but the high-energy style of years past under Jorge Sampaoli and Marcelo Bielsa is gone as this team is now older and has lost a step.
COLOMBIA WILL ADVANCE IF… Yerry Mina wins the one-on-one battle against Alexis Sanchez at the back (or better yet, Colombia defend so well as a team, he’s never on his own against him) and, at the other end, they win their individual battles, especially Juan Cuadrado wide and James Rodriguez in the hole. There’s too much talent here for it not to shine through.
CHILE WILL ADVANCE IF… They can turn the game into one of nerves and attrition, where their superior experience (they have six players with at least 100 caps) can be decisive. It’s like those black-and-white films in which they get the old gang together for one last score…
KEY MAN, COLOMBIA: James Rodriguez
He’s a different player in a Colombia shirt and Queiroz has built a framework around him that masks his weaknesses while also exploiting his strengths. Whether it’s creating or finishing, he’s the value-added component in this Colombia line-up.
KEY MAN, CHILE: Alexis Sanchez
His two goals for Chile in this Copa America are as many as he scored for Manchester United last season. He looks sharp and motivated and still has that burst if they can get him in dangerous situations.
PREDICTION: Colombia 2-1 Chile
We’ve seen Colombia flatter to deceive in the past but Queiroz has too many options and too much quality to get this wrong.
WHERE: Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
WHEN: Saturday, 6/28, 3 p.m. ET, live on ESPN+
THE STORY SO FAR…: The old master Oscar Tabarez, now in his 13th year as Uruguay boss, blended youth and experience wisely in a group stage that, apart from a 2-2 draw and scare against Japan, saw his side cruise through without hitting any speed bumps.
Peru started well against Venezuela creating plenty, before dispatching Bolivia and then getting spanked by Brazil. Ricardo Gareca likes his teams to run, but with strikers Jefferson Farfan and Paolo Guerrero aged 34 and 35 respectively, they need to pace themselves.
URUGUAY WILL ADVANCE IF… They maintain a steady supply for their experienced front pair of Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani, which means clamping down the midfield and not letting Peru out of their half. Defensively, things should take care of themselves and the likes of Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez are also threats at the other end.
PERU WILL ADVANCE IF… They don’t allow Uruguay’s deep and dynamic midfield to impose themselves and keep them on the back foot either with Luis Advincula‘s runs or, possibly, some Christian Cueva magic to set off Guerrero and/or Farfan.
KEY MAN, URUGUAY: Edinson Cavani
His pin-balling between midfield and attack helps Uruguay generate man advantages in both areas and he works tirelessly off the ball, allowing Luis Suarez and Nicolas Lodeiro to pick their spots. Oh and he scores plenty too.
KEY MAN, PERU: Renato Tapia
He’s the guy with the hard-hat, the blue-collar hero with the legs to keep it together shielding the back four and cueing the attack when Peru win back the ball. It’s going to be a busy night for him against the spiky Uruguayan midfield.
PREDICTION: Uruguay 2-0 Peru
Tabarez has plenty of quality at the back and up front and some hungry young midfielders eager to make their mark. Peru are simply overmatched here.