Tempo could be the key factor in Ferguson-Cerrone clash
While UFC 238 features a pair of title fights, many eyes will be drawn to the lightweight feature between Donald Cerrone and Tony Ferguson.
Not only do both fighters bring the reputation of being fan favorites, they also have the type of offensive statistics that foreshadow an exciting fight. A decisive victory could put the winner in line for a title shot, and one of the following statistical categories could illuminate the path toward that ultimate goal.
The signature stat that really defines Ferguson is his striking volume. During his UFC career, he has attempted 12.34 significant strikes per minute. Not only does he throw with volume, but he also lands at a respectable rate. He has landed 44% of those attempts, which is right around the average for ranked lightweights (47%).
High levels of striking volume can cause opponents to run entirely out of steam. Ferguson’s ability to push the pace in the striking game has depleted his opponents who have tried to keep up and those who have simply tried to survive. For example, in his last fight against Anthony Pettis, Ferguson attempted 17 significant strikes per minute in the first round and landed at a 57% clip. In the second round, he upped his volume and attempted 21.8 significant strikes per minute. Pettis was able to land a hard counter and scored a knockdown in the round. However, the pace of Ferguson’s offense was still too high, and he forced the former lightweight champion to retire between rounds.
Cerrone can also turn up the volume when he wants. For his UFC/WEC career, he has attempted 9.07 significant strikes per minute. That is a respectable striking pace, but it still lags well behind that of Ferguson. To be successful in this fight, he will need to find ways to break Ferguson’s rhythm through wrestling or clinching along the cage. If he is unable to do that, he could become the latest lightweight to be washed away by the deluge of Ferguson’s continuous assault.
An obvious result of Ferguson’s noted output and near average accuracy is that he lands at a high rate. For his UFC career, he has landed 5.51 significant strikes per minute, which is third-highest among ranked lightweights. It is somewhat surprising that he has been able to maintain some sort of defense while seemingly recklessly throwing strikes. He has managed to avoid 63% of his opponents’ attempts and absorbs only 3.55 significant strikes per minute. This leaves him with a 1.96 striking differential, which rates behind only champion Khabib Nurmagomedov in the group of top 16 lightweights.
While that rate is respectable, it does not properly depict Ferguson’s recent run of success. Over the course of his past seven fights, he has landed 7.18 per minute and absorbed 4.11 for a whopping 3.06 striking differential. It is not uncommon for fighters to go on a hot streak and carry a high differential for a fight or two. However, a prolonged stretch of that level of striking success is really an outlier and says a lot about the contender’s striking prowess.
Cerrone is also an established volume striker. In his UFC/WEC career, he has landed 4.28 significant strikes per minute. However, his inability to avoid reprisals has held him down in terms of striking differential. He has allowed his opponents to land 4.03 per minute for only a 0.25 differential.
Those defensive liabilities could get Cerrone into trouble against Ferguson. “El Cucuy” is going to launch strikes in volume. If Cerrone can’t come up with any defensive solutions or pace changers, he will spend the majority of the fight eating shots from Ferguson.
It is unlikely that Cerrone is going to have a lot of success in this fight when it comes to strike count. However, he can still make an impact with the strikes he does land. During his UFC/WEC career, he has landed 0.92 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Despite nearing the end of his career, his power is seemingly still present. In his last fight against Al Iaquinta, he scored a pair of knockdowns, which were key to his victory.
Though Ferguson does have impressive defense for someone with his kind of striking volume, he has been somewhat susceptible to knockdowns. He has been knocked down in four of his 14 career UFC fights. While that is a slight vulnerability, he has been able to rebound and score victories in three of those four fights.
If Ferguson tries to come forward and open up with volume striking, he could create the necessary opening for Cerrone to land power strikes and swing the balance of the fight. An old combat sports cliche says that power is the last thing to go, and that certainly seems to be the case for Cerrone.
While Cerrone could make an impact with power striking, he also has a decided edge in terms of wrestling and takedowns. During his UFC/WEC career, he has landed 1.27 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Ferguson comes from a wrestling background. However, he has not scored a takedown since his 2015 victory over Gleison Tibau, and he has failed on his last five takedown attempts. In the UFC, Ferguson has allowed his opponents to land 0.99 takedowns per 15 minutes, so his defensive wrestling can be a clear liability.
Cerrone has always relied on his kickboxing, but he can change things up with takedowns and some nifty grappling on the floor. He has averaged 1.27 passes per takedown and attempts 1.32 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time. Considering Ferguson’s frantic offense in the striking realm, Cerrone would be wise to take the fight to the ground. Even though it might be a clearer path to victory, it will not be entirely free of risk. Despite moving away from his wrestling roots, Ferguson has proven himself to be an opportunistic and aggressive submission threat. He attempts 1.49 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time and has won six fights via submission.
In the past, Cerrone has been able to surprise some opponents with his wrestling and submission grappling. If he struggles in the striking exchanges, it would be wise to take the fight to the floor. However, if he does employ this strategy, he needs to be prepared for the submission game of Ferguson.