Key metrics support Gustafsson as the favorite over Smith at UFC Fight Night
Hometown fighter Alexander Gustafsson is a sizable betting favorite against Anthony Smith in Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event in Stockholm, and Gustafsson is also a clear favorite in many of the statistical comparisons between the two fighters. Smith has excelled recently despite his statistical shortcomings, though, so can he continue that trend and pull the upset?
While the following categories detail Gustafsson’s advantages, they also depict Smith’s potential paths to a victory.
Smith’s late-career run to a title shot was surprising and unexpected for a number of reasons. One of the most notable was his career striking numbers. His striking differential, which is significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) minus significant strikes absorbed per minute (SApM), is dead last among ranked light heavyweights at -1.22.
At the most basic level, a fighter with a negative striking differential is absorbing more significant strikes than he is landing. A fighter with a less-than-stellar striking differential will often excel offensively while having deficient striking defense, or vice versa. However, that is certainly not the case for Smith. He lands only 3.09 significant strikes per minute, which ranks him second-to-last in the category among ranked light heavyweights. He absorbs 4.31 per minute, which puts him last in that same group.
On the other hand, Gustafsson lands 4.01 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.51, and thus has a +0.5 striking differential. While his differential is much more impressive than Smith’s, it does put him in the lower half of ranked light heavyweights. However, many of Gustafsson’s striking metrics were heavily impacted by a pair of fights against UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones. Excluding those two fights, his striking differential is +1.12, which would be right around average for a ranked light heavyweight.
While Gustafsson’s numbers take a hit because of his fights against Jones, it is hard to see how Smith has remained competitive with such paltry striking numbers, let alone built himself into a contender who also fell short against Jones. When it comes to striking numbers, Gustafsson is the clear favorite in this fight. However, Smith has continued to win despite his statistical shortcomings, so these figures may not be entirely determinant.
One of the factors that has allowed Smith to be successful without outlanding his opponents has been his ability to score knockdowns and finish fights. While this has contributed greatly to his recent run, he may be overly reliant on his knockdown ability. Since 2016, he has scored only one UFC victory without a knockdown, and he is only 4-6 in the UFC and Strikeforce when he hasn’t scored a knockdown.
Unfortunately for Smith, he does not have a standout knockdown rate. He lands only 0.58 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time over the course of his UFC and Strikeforce careers. Not only is that rate not particularly strong, it also lags behind Gustafsson’s. The Swede has landed 0.82 knockdowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career.
If Smith’s plan is to sit on his power shots and hope for a knockdown, he might be in trouble against Gustafsson. “The Mauler” has the superior knockdown rate and has been dropped to the canvas only once in his UFC career — against Anthony Johnson in 2015. This strategy has worked for Smith in the past, but it is unlikely to produce a positive result here.
Gustafsson’s strong chin is not the only factor that would make it unwise for Smith to patiently load up on power shots. The Swedish fighter is also likely to overwhelm his opponent with striking volume if given the chance. He attempts 10.1 significant strikes per minute. Even though he has the worst accuracy of any ranked light heavyweight (39 percent), Gustafsson more than makes up for it with his persistent volume.
Smith attempts only 6.47 significant strikes per minute, so it is unlikely he will be able to keep pace with Gustafsson in a striking contest. On top of that, he has the second-worst striking defense among ranked light heavyweights. In his UFC and Strikeforce careers, he has avoided only 43 percent of his opponents’ significant strike attempts.
Gustafsson has been successful in the past in spite of his poor accuracy, thanks to his striking pace. Against an opponent as hittable as Smith, he may be able to really rack up some lofty striking totals and put on a dominant performance.
While Gustafsson has the well-earned reputation of being an effective striker, he is not above taking a fight to the ground to minimize risk when given the chance. For example, he recognized he had a sizable wrestling advantage against Jan Blachowicz in 2016, and he proceeded to land four of his five takedown attempts and out-land his opponent 33 to 1 on the floor.
Over his UFC career, Gustafsson has averaged 1.63 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he might consider relying on that skill in this bout. Smith has allowed his opponents to land 2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes. He stops only 50 percent of the takedowns attempted against him, which is the third-worst rate among ranked light heavyweights. Gustafsson appears to have the advantage in a variety of statistical categories. However, the advantage in the wrestling game might be his biggest edge and his clearest and least hazardous path to victory.