NBA playoff and lottery projections: Favorites and big games

April 9, 2019 admin

Max Kellerman explains why the Warriors are worse off than they were last season, but still the favorites to win the NBA Finals. (1:08)

What’s at stake for the NBA playoff race and draft lottery during the final two days of the NBA regular season?

Three teams are competing for the final playoff spot in the East, and it should go down to the wire. Only one playoff matchup is set in either conference, with plenty of movement still possible throughout the West.

The tank race has heated up, especially with traded and protected picks still very much up in the air.

Here are the games to follow, what they mean and how ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) projects everything to shake out.

Note: All odds are via BPI projections unless otherwise noted.

More: Power rankings | Top 100 prospects | Traded picks

The Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat are battling for the 16th playoff spot. The Hornets own tiebreakers over both teams (including a three-way tie), while the Pistons own the tiebreaker over the Heat.

Games with the most at stake

The 2019 NBA draft comes with the debut of new odds throughout the lottery.

Pistons (39-41) | Playoff odds: 75.5 percent

In: Wins over Grizzlies and Knicks

In: Win either remaining game combined with the Hornets losing either game

In: Lose both remaining games combined with two Hornets losses and at least one Heat loss

Hornets (38-42) | Playoff odds: 23.1 percent

In: Wins over Cavaliers and Magic combined with the Pistons losing either game

In: A win over the Cavaliers or Magic, combined with two Pistons losses and at least one Heat loss

Heat (38-42) | Playoff odds: 1.3 percent

In: Wins over 76ers and Nets combined with two Pistons losses and at least one Hornets loss

East playoff seeding

Seeds Nos. 1-5 are wrapped up, guaranteeing Celtics-Pacers in Round 1. Here’s how BPI projects the rest of the East:

Meaning the most likely playoff matchups are …

(1) Bucks vs. (8) Pistons (61 percent chance)

(2) Raptors vs. (7) Magic (60 percent chance)

(3) 76ers vs. (6) Nets (74 percent chance)

(4) Celtics vs. (5) Pacers (locked in)

The eight West playoff teams have been locked in for weeks, but the seeding will go down to the wire.

The Warriors have claimed No. 1. Here are the odds for the other teams still playing for home-court advantage:

And the odds for the bottom playoff teams:

Tiebreakers

There are still some convoluted tiebreakers up in the air in the West for teams that finish with the same record. A refresher on the order in which these can shake out in a two-team tie:

First tiebreaker: Head-to-head record

If tied head to head: A division winner gets the edge

If neither is a division winner (same division): Division record

If neither is a division winner (different division): Conference record

If still tied: Record against playoff teams in own conference; then record against playoff teams in the other conference; then point differential

If still tied: Random drawing

If three or more teams are tied, then a division winner gets first priority, followed by winning percentage in games among the tied teams.

Games with the most at stake

• Nuggets @ Jazz | Tuesday, 9 p.m. ET
• Rockets @ Thunder | Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. ET
• Timberwolves @ Nuggets | Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET
• Jazz @ Clippers | Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET

The Nuggets will secure the No. 2 seed with two more wins.

The Rockets own the tiebreaker over the Nuggets, so a victory in the final game with Denver splitting its games will get Houston up to No. 2.

If the Rockets lose and the Blazers win out (play the Lakers on Tuesday and Kings on Wednesday), Portland gets the No. 3 seed.

As long as the Jazz win either game, they’ll finish at least No. 5.

If the Thunder win out (play Houston on Tuesday and Milwaukee on Wednesday), they’ll at least finish No. 6.

The Spurs own the tiebreakers with the Thunder and Clippers, so a San Antonio win over Dallas on Wednesday combined with an OKC loss in either game will get the Spurs to No. 6.

Most likely playoff matchups

(1) Warriors vs. (8) Thunder (49 percent chance)

(2) Rockets vs. (7) Clippers (26 percent chance)

(3) Nuggets vs. (6) Spurs (55 percent chance)

(4) Blazers vs. (5) Jazz (82 percent chance)

The tweaked lottery system hasn’t eradicated the tank race down the stretch. There are precious pingpong ball combinations up for grabs that will affect traded picks and odds to get one of the coveted top three selections (bringing a chance to select Zion Williamson, Ja Morant or RJ Barrett).

Go here for a full breakdown of how the new lottery works.

Projected lottery odds

Games to watch and what they mean

Get ready for Zion Williamson, Ja Morant and more.

• Latest NBA mock draft
• Top 100 draft rankings
• Draft assets for every team
• Rankings by stats and scouting

The New York Knicks have secured the worst record. The Knicks will share the same 14 percent odds of landing the No. 1 pick with the Phoenix Suns and Cleveland Cavaliers, but New York is guaranteed to stay in the top five.

The Suns and Cavaliers — tied at 19-62 with one game left — are essentially battling over top-five odds. Under the new system, with the top four picks now in the lottery draw, the three worst teams share equal odds for all four slots. But the team with the second-worst record will hold an 80 percent chance to stay in the top five, while the third-worst team has only a 67 percent chance. The third-worst team can slide all the way to No. 7.

This race for second-worst will get settled Tuesday … sort of. Cleveland faces a Charlotte team fighting for a postseason spot, while Phoenix gets a Dallas squad that has its own reasons to lose.

If these teams — or any lottery teams — finish with the same record, the NBA will break the tie with a random drawing Friday. The tied teams will receive the average of the total number of combinations for those tied positions, with the winner of the draw getting any extra combinations if there’s an odd number to split.

The Suns and Cavs are already bound to share the same odds whether they tie or not, but the random drawing also determines the order in which the teams pick if they don’t get selected in the top four. So, hypothetically: If the Suns and Cavs tie, the Suns win the random drawing and neither team wins a top-four lottery selection, then the Suns would pick No. 5 and the Cavs would pick No. 6. (Unless the Knicks also don’t land in the top four. In that scenario the Suns get No. 6 and the Cavs get No. 7.)

The Chicago Bulls (No. 4) and Atlanta Hawks (No. 5) are locked into their slots.

The Washington Wizards (32-49), Dallas Mavericks (32-48), Memphis Grizzlies (32-48) and New Orleans Pelicans (33-48) are bunched up at Nos. 6-9. This is especially important because Dallas and Memphis have a chance to lose their protected picks without some lottery luck, and they both have two games left.

The Mavericks will send their pick to the Hawks if it’s outside the top five, and the Grizzlies will send their pick to Celtics if it’s outside the top eight. BPI currently projects that Dallas has a 27 percent chance to keep its pick, while Memphis has a 74.9 percent. The Mavs’ pick remains top-five-protected next year if not conveyed; the Grizzlies’ pick drops to top-six-protected in 2020. There are rumbling that Memphis — in the middle of a rebuild — prefers to give up a first-rounder this season before the protections drop further.

If any team grabs the No. 6 spot outright, that comes with a 9.0 percent chance for No. 1 and a 37 percent chance for top five. Falling to No. 9 outright means a 4.5 percent chance for No. 1 and a 20 percent chance for top five. The most likely scenario is that at least a couple of these selections end up tied.

Dallas faces a Phoenix team that is also incentivized to lose and then a San Antonio team that should be playing for playoff seeding. Memphis gets Detroit (on the playoff bubble) and then Golden State.

The Lakers can improve their odds with a loss to Portland on Tuesday and at least one Timberwolves win.
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