Daily notes: Pitcher projections and hitter ratings for Monday
After setting a home run record on Opening Day, MLB hitters have continued to send the ball out of the park at a historic pace. While the early weather isn’t as poor as it was last season, it will obviously warm up, further aiding the long ball. The spike in offense makes identifying spot starters even more integral. Don’t worry — we’re here to help.
Derek Carty provides his daily fantasy recommendations for today’s DraftKings contests.
Derek Carty provides daily fantasy recommendations for today’s FanDuel contests.
Here are Monday’s pitchers and hitters in favorable spots to fortify your lineups, no doubt having holes with only 20 teams in action.
Pitchers to stream
Eric Lauer (L), rostered in 12 percent of ESPN leagues, San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants: Lauer held the Giants scoreless over six innings on Opening Day in Petco Park, fanning three with one walk. The rematch is in Oracle Park, another favorable pitching venue. Even with the addition of Kevin Pillar, the Giants sport one of the weakest lineups in the league, affording Lauer a good chance of rebounding from his second start, in which the Diamondbacks touched him for nine hits and four runs in five frames.
Trevor Cahill (R), 6 percent, Los Angeles Angels vs. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers tote a powerful offense into this interleague tilt, embellished by using someone like Eric Thames in the designated hitter spot. However, historically Cahill is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, helping to limit home runs. There’s some risk, but on an abbreviated Monday slate, there aren’t many streaming options for those looking for an early-week advantage.
Vince Velasquez (R), 4 percent, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: It’s early, but thus far, the Nationals are among the league leaders in strikeouts. Velasquez is making his first start of the 2019 campaign because the Phillies’ schedule didn’t require a fifth starter early on. The 27-year-old righty is coming off a season in which he fanned 161 in 146.2 innings, rendering him a candidate to start the week with a strikeouts edge.
Bullpen
The Baltimore Orioles are off to a surprising start, helping record four saves through Saturday’s action. Curiously, four different relievers have posted a save, none of them Mychal Givens, the favorite to close. Despite being shut out thus far, Givens is still likely to emerge with the job. Richard Bleier doesn’t miss enough bats to be trusted in the ninth, nor does Miguel Castro. Mike Wright Jr. is a converted starter with a closer-like strikeout rate, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher — not the best trait in Camden Yards. Paul Frye is intriguing as he’s a dominant ground-ball pitcher, but he walks too many.
Projected game scores
Note: W-L, ERA and WHIP are full-year 2018 statistics
Catcher
Austin Barnes (R), 42 percent, Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Miles Mikolas): Hit streaks at the dish have proved to be non-predictive. However, when one of the reasons is a high contact rate, it’s worthy of attention. Through Saturday, Barnes whiffed just once in 21 plate appearances. Considering Mikolas usually allows batters to put the ball in play, Barnes is in a great spot.
First base
Kendrys Morales (S), 18 percent, Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Andrew Cashner): Depending on league rules, Morales may still be utility only, but if your league awards eligibility after five games played at the position, Morales qualifies at first base. Even if you need to use him at utility, as much exposure to Cashner as possible is a good thing. The veteran righty brings up the rear in today’s rankings, which is saying something since Homer Bailey is also on the card.
Second base
Daniel Robertson (R), 1 percent, Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox (LHP Carlos Rodon): Rodon is off to a strong start to the season, fanning 15 with just two walks in his initial 11.2 frames. Maybe this is the season the injury-prone southpaw puts it together, but more than two outings are necessary to prove it. When healthy, spotty control has been Rodon’s issue. Robertson has the patience to take advantage, not to mention pop with the platoon edge.
Third base
Johan Camargo (S), 4 percent, Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies (LHP Kyle Freeland): Camargo has been playing all over the diamond, both in the infield and outfield. Lately, he’s been roaming right field with a lefty on the hill. Freeland has exhibited success in Coors Field, but there has yet to be a Rockies hurler able to sustain effectiveness at home.
Shortstop
Garrett Hampson (R), 13 percent, Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves (RHP Julio Teheran): It took injuries to Daniel Murphy and Ryan McMahon, but finally, Hampson is getting regular run at the keystone. Teheran is more vulnerable to lefty swingers, but the bottom line is anyone batting in Coors Field is an option.
Corner infield
Ryon Healy (R), 49 percent, Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals (RHP Homer Bailey): Healy began the season eligible only at first base, but with seven games at the hot corner, he has picked up another position in many leagues. This is relevant as third base isn’t as deep as it has been in the past. Healy may lack the platoon bump, but against Bailey it doesn’t matter. Anyone at the plate with Bailey on the hill is in scoring position.
Middle infield
Ian Kinsler (R), 7 percent, San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (LHP Madison Bumgarner): Jump in the way-back machine and set it to 2011, and this is a matchup of two of the top fantasy performers. Now, both are looking to show there’s still something in the tank. Kinsler is likely just a placeholder until the Padres feel Luis Urias is ready, while Bumgarner could be pitching for a midseason trade and the chance to win another ring. Batting leadoff, Kinsler is in a good spot on a slate devoid of many options in the middle.
Outfield
Alex Gordon (L), 20 percent, Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners (RHP Felix Hernandez): Despite early success facing lefty pitching, Gordon is strictly an option when he enjoys the platoon bump. Last year, Hernandez registered a .353 wOBA facing left-handed hitters, significantly higher than his .304 career mark.
Cedric Mullins (S), 7 percent, Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics (RHP Marco Estrada): Mullins is off to a sluggish start, not yet earning the Orioles’ trust when a lefty is on the hill. On Monday, Mullins draws a righty, so look for the switch-hitter to be atop the Baltimore lineup. He profiles as someone capable of double-digit homers and steals, though if he doesn’t get things going, he may be sent to Triple-A.
Josh Reddick (L), 5 percent, Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees (RHP Masahiro Tanaka): Using Reddick against a homer-prone righty feels like a cheat code. The veteran outfielder is off to a slow start, though it’s encouraging to see his contact rate is normal. This usually portends impending production.
Hitter matchup ratings
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s history (three years’ worth) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively.
Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. For example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided.