Would a 2019 Team North America beat the 2016 version?
The World Cup of Hockey might be no more — for now — but it’s hard not to look at the league and see the ripple effects created by Team North America in 2016’s event. It was a statement from the league’s young players.
What Team North America showed the NHL and its fans is how hockey can look when you throw out traditional roster construction and simply build a speed- and skill-based team. Even the so-called grinders were guys who could put up numbers.
And the game is better today than it was heading into the 2016-17 season. Scoring is up, the league continues to skew younger and entertainment value is about as high as it has ever been. Although we can’t credit Team North America solely for this change, they certainly provided a flashpoint. Three of the 2016 team’s forwards are currently among the top seven NHL scorers. Remember this roster that caused a stir during the 2016 World Cup of Hockey?
Lines are from Team North America’s first game of the tournament, a Round Robin opener vs. Finland.
Talent can come in waves, and there’s little doubt the group of players born in late 1993 to 1997 that helped comprise the first Team North America was loaded. But I wanted to take a look at how a Team North America built today would fair against the 2016 version using the same age parameters. That means building a roster with players who will be 23 years old or younger on Oct. 1, 2019. (Nathan MacKinnon just misses the cutoff by a month.)
Let’s take a look at that theoretical lineup and how it would have done against the 2016 squad.
Team North America had just five players eligible to be returnees, and all five — Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Dylan Larkin and Aaron Ekblad — were all no-doubters to return for me. Beyond that quintet, there is a solid group of forwards on my hand-picked roster, forcing natural centers to right wing where there wasn’t as much depth. I put the veterans of the team at center, understanding that Brayden Point and Mathew Barzal could both be swung out to the wing to add depth.
There weren’t many hard decisions among defensemen and goaltenders because there just weren’t a ton of options. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot of skill and talent in those groups. Thomas Chabot is peaking at the right time, with Ekblad coming in as a seasoned veteran already. Then you’ve got Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy as a potential well-balanced second pairing. Noah Hanifin has had a nice season with Calgary, and Travis Sanheim brings a good two-way game to the team.
The one off-the-board guy I went with was Cale Makar. We have him as our No. 1 NHL prospect, and he’s a right-shot defenseman who has the talent to contribute to this team. He just helped lead UMass to the NCAA Frozen Four for the first time in program history, and even though the jump from college to the pros is a steep one, I see very little transition risk for such a high-level talent — and he’s expected to join Colorado when his collegiate season concludes. His speed and improved defensive play lead me to believe he’d be a contributor.
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The toughest decision of the selection process was the extra forward. Clayton Keller is coming off a bit of a down year offensively, but I kept him in the mix because I’m a big believer in his overall upside. That said, the versatility of Pierre-Luc Dubois was a big reason the Blue Jackets’ young star won out on that last spot. He’s a guy you can play pretty much anywhere in the lineup and is having a solid season.
Goaltending was shallow. There just aren’t a ton of goalies with a lot of NHL experience who would qualify for this team right now. Rookie Carter Hart is the most seasoned of the three most viable starters within the age group. It’s fair to assume he would be the starter and would at least perform adequately.
OK, so how would these two teams stack up if pitted against each other?
Edge: 2019 team
I really think this year’s forward group edges out the 2016 version. The 2016 forward lineup averaged 0.71 points per game the season prior to the World Cup, while this year’s group has averaged 0.97 points per game. Sure, scoring is way up this year, but this is a significant upgrade in point production.
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Additionally, Team North America had multiple players before they hit their prime scoring seasons and some who hadn’t quite found their top gear yet. Even MacKinnon was still a year away from establishing himself as a bona fide superstar. This year’s class has players surging into their scoring primes, including each of the returnees, Point, Mitch Marner and Matthew Tkachuk. The 2019 edition is almost exclusively first- or second-line players.
McDavid now has two Art Ross trophies in his rearview mirror, as opposed to coming off of an injury-abridged rookie season. Matthews has three seasons of 34 or more goals. Eichel is playing some of the best hockey we’ve seen from him in the NHL. Larkin is coming into his own as a top-line center. The best players for Team North America in 2019 are better than the best players for Team North America in 2016 by a fairly significant margin due to age and development.
And to further drive home the case, having some Swiss Army knives helps, too. That versatility of Point, the older Tkachuk and Dubois allows highly skilled players to still fit into traditional roles. Speed kills, and this team appears to have even more of it than the last edition, even without MacKinnon.
Edge: Slightly toward 2016 team
This is incredibly close to call. In terms of production, they’re very similar groups. There’s good size and good offensive-minded guys, and there are some solid defenders on both teams. I think there’s a slight edge in terms of defensive play for the 2016 team, though, as Ekblad, Seth Jones and Morgan Rielly were already playing at a top-pairing level at that point. I think there’s just a bit more depth there. In particular, I think they have a little more versatility than the 2019 version. Jones and Colton Parayko were already such mature defenders.
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There are some really good offensive puck-movers on the 2019 team to make a significant dent in the transition and possession games, but I don’t see any true stoppers among the group.
I do like the left-shot-right-shot balance on the 2019 team. That’s one reason I gave Makar the edge in making the club. There is less of a dependency on it today, but a lot of coaches still prefer balance. Makar offers a right-shot on the power play.
The 2016 defensive corps averaged 0.42 points per game the season before they all joined Team North America. This year’s version is only slightly better at 0.45. In terms of offensive capabilities, the two squads are especially close.
Edge: 2016 team, significantly
The biggest advantage 2016’s Team North America has against this year’s hypothetical group is goaltending. There are so few goaltenders eligible, with Hart having the most games played (29).
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Matt Murray had just backstopped the Penguins to the Stanley Cup when he took the crease for the 2016 World Cup. John Gibson had essentially become Anaheim’s starter the season before and came with playoff experience, and Connor Hellebuyck was a top goaltender in the AHL at that point. In fact, Hellebuyck had 26 career NHL starts entering the tournament as North America’s third-stringer, just a tad behind what the 2019 starter currently has.
For the 2019 Team North America, Hart is the clear choice to start, but even his extensive potential does not suggest he provides more than the three-headed monster of original Team North America. This is an especially significant factor between the two teams.
With the defense and goaltending both going to the 2016 team, I’m going to give the nod to the original Team North America.
I think goaltending is the defining factor for this exercise. Murray and Gibson had significant experience at a young age. They were both a bit older than Hart is now, and I think they were more polished, having had success in the AHL and NHL before joining this team. When Murray got injured in the actual World Cup of Hockey, Gibson came in and was just as good, if not better. Who could forget his save against Sweden in the most epic overtime we’ve seen in the game?
The forwards for the new version of Team North America are significantly better based on what we’ve seen from them this season. Even though the 2016 team had an elite shutdown center in Sean Couturier, I don’t see how it’d be able to match up with the top three scoring lines for the 2019 team. But I just think 2016 was a little more balanced and had some significant experience advantages.
Hopefully, we will one day see the Team North America concept take the ice again.