Opening Day takeaways: Can we believe what we just saw?
The Dodgers led by Enrique Hernandez and Joc Pederson hit eight total home runs to set an opening day record against the Diamondbacks. (1:30)
Welcome back, baseball. We missed you.
Opening Day in 2019 featured 15 games, sunny weather (except in Kansas City), good pitching and plenty of home runs and strikeouts. In other words, baseball in 2019 is going to look a lot like baseball in 2018. There were five shutouts, but despite one third of the games including a zero, players homered once every 19.9 at-bats — higher than last year’s rate of once every 29.6 at-bats.
Let’s take a quick snapshot of each game and ask one big question to take away from it:
What if Jacob deGrom gets better? As expected, deGrom and Max Scherzer, 1-2 in last year’s National League Cy Young voting, locked up in a great duel as deGrom fanned 10 in six scoreless innings while Scherzer struck out 12 and allowed two hits in 7⅔ innings. It was just the second time opposing Opening Day starters both reached 10 strikeouts, matching the feat first accomplished by Sam McDowell and Dave McNally in 1970. Scherzer’s one mistake: a first-inning changeup that Robinson Cano hit out to left-center in his first at-bat with the Mets — matching the number of home runs hit off Scherzer’s changeup in all of 2018.
As for deGrom, he did pitch out of a couple of jams. He got Ryan Zimmerman to line out to third with two on in the first and got out a first-and-third jam in the third by striking out Trea Turner and getting an odd 5-4-2-5 double play courtesy of some bad baserunning from Victor Robles. In the sixth, with Turner on third with one out, he struck out super sophomore Juan Soto with an unhittable changeup:
Big spot. One-run game.@JdeGrom19 lives for this. pic.twitter.com/G5OSRv0bQV
The Mets ace now has a record 30 consecutive starts allowing three runs or fewer and 25 consecutive quality starts. While Scherzer will allow some home runs (23 last season), deGrom allowed just 10 in 2018. It’s impossible to improve on a 1.70 ERA, but maybe deGrom is capable of the impossible.
What if Luke Voit is actually really good? Voit made his Yankees debut on Aug. 2, and from then to the end of the regular season, only Christian Yelich had a higher OPS. Only one American Leaguer hit more home runs than Voit’s 14 in that span. He hit .333. Still, it felt like a Kevin Maas type of run: He couldn’t be anywhere near that good, or the Cardinals wouldn’t have traded him in the first place. The expectations for 2019 range from platooning with Greg Bird to … well, maybe there is something more here. Starting at DH and hitting cleanup after a good spring training, Voit came up with two on in the first inning and launched a 428-foot home run off Andrew Cashner, a 112.6 mph rocket to center field:
New season. Same Luke. pic.twitter.com/NlIMOlGY0k
Voit had a perfect day, reaching base all four plate appearances: the home run, two walks and a hit by pitch. Of course, as one Orioles fan cynic posted on Twitter, “We always knew Luke Voit could hit Triple-A pitching.” Tough job these days, rooting for the Orioles. Anyway, the Yankees set a major league record last season with 267 home runs. If Voit is the real deal and ends up winning regular playing time from Bird, and Gary Sanchez bounces back and Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar improve, don’t discount the possibility of 300 home runs.
What if Josh Hader is all the Brewers have in the bullpen? The Brewers’ bullpen deservedly received a lot of credit for the team’s division title last season, ranking sixth in the majors in win probability added. However, with Corey Knebel (elbow ligament) and Jeremy Jeffress (shoulder weakness), part of last year’s three-headed late-inning monster, both on the injured list, Craig Counsell used Josh Hader for a six-out save to close out a one-run lead. As he was so many times last year, Hader was perfect, retiring all six batters he faced, including four strikeouts. He did require a little help from Lorenzo Cain‘s dramatic game-ending catch to rob Jose Martinez:
😏 #NotToday pic.twitter.com/RkKj1FrK4A
The Brewers are hoping Jeffress can return sometime in mid-April, but Knebel’s status remains up in the air. He is going to decide Friday whether to have Tommy John surgery. With Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff in the rotation to start the season, the bullpen is already thinned out from the group we saw last postseason. There were rumors the Brewers were interested in free agent Craig Kimbrel and given how the team is obviously in win-now mode, the shaky health of Jeffress and Knebel could eventually bring Kimbrel to Milwaukee.
What if Andrew McCutchen is the best free agent outfielder the Phillies signed? Give Bryce Harper props: He knows how to win over the fans. Harper made his Phillies debut wearing some glow-in-the-dark florescent green Phillie Phanatic cleats:
These shoes!!! @BryceHarper3 shows off his Phanatic cleats! They are just one of our favorite things about #OpeningDay #RingTheBell https://t.co/5YW8a92zuH pic.twitter.com/SiiYCxClq8
McCutchen proceeded to lead off the bottom of the first with a home run off Julio Teheran, and the Phillies never looked back as Maikel Franco added a three-run homer and Rhys Hoskins put it away with a seventh-inning grand slam. Harper went 0-for-3 with a walk and two strikeouts.
Could McCutchen be more valuable than Harper? It’s possible. He had the higher WAR in 2018. I love him in the leadoff spot given his on-base ability. Maybe the bigger point here: The Phillies’ season doesn’t just ride on Harper putting up MVP numbers, but on all the offseason acquisitions putting up numbers. (For the record: I’ll take Harper finishing with the higher WAR this year.)
What if the Angels don’t have a lineup around Mike Trout? All the preseason talk about the Angels’ playoff chances centered around the health of their starting rotation and ultimate effectiveness of their lineup, but it seems like there should be some concerns about how many runs the Angels will score. Granted, the lineup on Opening Day was missing Justin Upton and Shohei Ohtani, but we already know Ohtani won’t be back until mid-May or so. Even with those two last season, the Angels were just eighth in the AL in runs and only four hitters (Trout, Ohtani, Upton and Andrelton Simmons) had an above-average OPS+.
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In the big picture, if the team’s run prevention is average, they’ll need better-than-average offensive production. They will need a bounce-back season from Kole Calhoun, who was hitting leadoff on Thursday after a .283 OBP in 2018. They need a bounce-back from Zack Cozart, who played just 58 games and didn’t hit much when he did play. Catcher Jonathan Lucroy had a terrible offensive season with the A’s last year. Then there’s Albert Pujols, who has a .243/.287/.397 line over two seasons. Does he have anything left?
What if this is the start of something big? I was on San Diego radio on Thursday morning, where enthusiasm for the Padres is sky high, not just because of the Manny Machado signing, but with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack making the Opening Day roster. The hosts asked about a potential surprise team in the majors and I responded — not just because I was on San Diego radio — that maybe it’s the Padres.
Now, in part there aren’t many teams that fit the “surprise” description because the bad teams in the American League are so bad it’s unlikely one of them turns into a playoff contender. But the Padres? It’s a long shot, but young pitching can come in a hurry, but maybe Eric Lauer (six scoreless against the Giants), Joey Lucchesi and Paddack turn into a solid 1-2-3 and the young bats like Tatis and Franmil Reyes produce some numbers. Wil Myers hit a long home run off Madison Bumgarner on Thursday, but the top highlight for the Padres had to be Tatis’ first big league at-bat and the first of his two hits:
MLB Debut on #OpeningDay? @tatis_jr was ready for it. 💁♂️ pic.twitter.com/UoBmLPXj1u
What if Jose Berrios makes The Leap? Yes, that Cleveland lineup was pretty sad: Tyler Naquin hitting third; Hanley Ramirez, released last season by the Red Sox, hitting fifth; Roberto Perez, a .168 hitter last year, batting seventh; Brad Miller playing second for Jason Kipnis; rookie Eric Stamets, who hit .202 at Triple-A, making his major league debut. That said … Berrios was awesome. He fanned 10 and allowed two hits in 7⅔ innings and became the first pitcher in Twins history (since the franchise moved to Minnesota) to strike out 10 on Opening Day.
After the game, catcher Jason Castro said it was the best he’d seen Berrios with his changeup. Only one of the 10 strikeouts came on the changeup, but he mixed it in effectively with that wipeout curveball. Batters hit .181 with a .596 OPS against his curve last year, .261 with an .857 OPS against his changeup. If he can have that consistent second offspeed pitch, he’s going to improve on his 2018 All-Star campaign, when he went 12-11 with a 3.84 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 192⅓ innings. And if the Twins have a legit ace, that perceived gap between them and the Indians gets even smaller.
What if the Blue Jays can’t get anybody on base? I turned this game on when both pitchers had no-hitters going in the fifth inning. Marcus Stroman lost his in the sixth, but Jordan Zimmermann took a perfect game into the seventh, finally broken up on Teoscar Hernandez‘s two-out infield single on a soft grounder up the middle. It was the longest perfect game bid on Opening Day since Lefty Grove went seven innings in 1940. Anyhoo, Christin Stewart would win it with a two-run homer in the top of the 10th off Daniel Hudson:
*clears throat*
LET’S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO#MotorOn pic.twitter.com/t5YStFnl1f
That Toronto lineup though … I have a feeling the Jays aren’t going to have a good team OBP, and if you don’t have a good team OBP you’re not going to score enough runs, even if you mash a bunch of balls over the fence (which the Blue Jays might do). Leadoff hitter Brandon Drury has a .314 career OBP. No. 2 hitter Randal Grichuk has a .298 career OBP and was .301 last year. No. 3 hitter Hernandez had a .302 OBP last year. No. 5 hitter Lourdes Gurriel Jr. had 59 strikeouts, nine walks and a .309 OBP. These are young veterans but not so young that you project big improvement. Maybe they will improve. You can’t always predict baseball.
By the way, this 10-inning game lasted just 2 hours, 25 minutes. The Giants-Padres game lasted just 2:18. Indians-Twins also lasted just 2:18. The A’s-Angels game also lasted just 2:18. It’s amazing how fast the pace of play picks up when there aren’t any baserunners.
What if Justin Verlander never gets old? Before Thursday, there had been just two matchups when the previous season’s Cy Young winner and Cy Young runner-up faced off on Opening Day. We had two more on Thursday! We didn’t get another deGrom-Scherzer duel in this one, however, as the Astros pounded three home runs off Blake Snell, and Verlander shut down the Rays after Austin Meadows led off with a home run — Verlander went 20 batters before allowing another hit.
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Verlander is 36, but there’s a reason the Astros just gave him a two-year extension that runs through 2021: He’s still a beast. His fastball averaged 94.5 mph and his fastest pitch of 96.7 came in his final inning of work. But he relies less than ever on velocity and only 41 of his 102 pitches against the Rays were fastballs; he threw 29 sliders, 20 curveballs and 11 changeups. He induced 23 swing-and-misses, the second-highest total on Opening Day behind Scherzer’s 24. He has averaged 211 innings per season in his career, in an age when few pitchers get to 200 innings in any season (only 13 pitchers got there last year). He’s great, he’s durable, he’s a future Hall of Famer. Yes, the Astros might just go places in 2019.
What if Kyle Freeland goes 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA again? You don’t want to read too much into a well-pitched game on the road at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park against a Miami lineup that isn’t exactly the ’27 Yankees (or maybe not even the 1990 Yankees). Still, Freeland is a guy everyone projects for a major regression for two reasons: (1) He pitches at Coors Field and 2.85 ERAs at Coors Field aren’t exactly a regular thing; (2) He’s not a big strikeout guy for 2019 baseball.
But you know what? He strikes out enough guys (he ranked 78th in strikeout rate among the 140 pitchers with at least 100 innings). He induces soft contact (13th-lowest average exit velocity among those 100-inning pitchers). I think he’s going to be good again and that’s one reason I picked the Rockies to win a wild-card spot for the third straight season.
What if the Reds have more depth than we realize? The top five hitters in the Cincinnati lineup went 1-for-18 with two walks, but the bottom of the order picked them up as Jose Peraza homered, Tucker Barnhart reached twice, Jose Iglesias had two hits and Derek Dietrich delivered the game’s big blow, a pinch-hit three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh off Pirates reliever Richard Rodriguez:
Welcome to Cincinnati, Derek Dietrich! 💪💪💪#RedsOpeningDay | #BornToBaseball pic.twitter.com/EmMKgoP7Rk
OK, so that’s a classic Great American Ball Park home run. They all count. With Scooter Gennett injured, Peraza slid over to second and Iglesias started at shortstop. Dietrich has a career 109 OPS+, so that’s a nice bat coming off the bench. Once Nick Senzel reaches the majors from his stint in Triple-A purgatory, they’ll have more depth. They even have a new supersub in pitcher/center fielder Michael Lorenzen, who ran for Jesse Winker and stayed in the game as a defensive replacement (he didn’t pitch). The Reds will need a lot to go right, but this team is much deeper than it has been in recent seasons — in the starting rotation and beyond.
What if the Dodgers set a National League record for home runs? Wow. The Dodgers crushed eight home runs, which ties the franchise record for any game (the Shawn Green four-homer game in 2003) and sets an Opening Day record for any team (the old record was six). It was good to see Corey Seager go yard in his first regular-season game since last year’s Tommy John surgery, and Joc Pederson and Kiké Hernandez each hit two. Here are all eight:
It’s a moment when they show up, got ’em saying WOW. #OpeningDayLA pic.twitter.com/w7skqOKKId
You might recall that the Dodgers got off to a slow start last year with a 16-26 record through May 16. Through those 42 games, they hit just .238/.318/.387 with 39 home runs. The rest of the way, they hit .254/.338/.461 with 196 home runs in 121 games. The Dodgers’ 235 home runs was the third-highest total in NL history (the 2000 Astros hit 249). So imagine if the Dodgers keep slugging like this from the get-go. Maybe they didn’t need that Bryce Harper guy.
What if Javier Baez doesn’t swing at everything? Baez went 2-for-5 with two home runs and four RBIs as last year’s MVP runner-up began his season on a strong note. I’m on the “regression is likely” side of things with Baez, as it seems unlikely he can hit .290/.326/.554 with 83 extra-base hits given his approach at the plate (167 K’s, 29 walks).
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Here’s what I mean. I did a quick search on Baseball-Reference.com, looking at all players with at least 500 plate appearances, fewer than 30 walks and at least 125 strikeouts. Baez’s .881 OPS was the highest of the group and only four of the 44 players had an .800 OPS. But Baez also came close in 2017 with a .796 OPS. He’s such an outlier that he’s hard to compare to other players. The point: Maybe he can repeat last season. Of course, he could improve with better plate discipline, and if that happens that 2-3-4 of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Baez could as lethal as any trio in the NL.
What if speed does kill? I don’t think the Royals will be that good. I don’t think the White Sox will be good. But the Royals are more likely to be interesting than the White Sox thanks to their speed. We saw some of that on Thursday as Whit Merrifield stole two bags and Adalberto Mondesi legged out two triples. (Billy Hamilton, alas, went 0-for-4.) In a sense, this team is actually more 2015 Royals than the actual 2015 Royals were.
What if something isn’t right with Chris Sale? You know Red Sox Nation is in full panic mode after the Mariners pounded Sale for seven runs and three home runs in three innings (the Mariners would hit five in the game). Tim Beckham had been 0-for-15 with nine strikeouts against Sale — and homered twice off him. He’s also the early leader in bat flips:
Got that one.#OpeningDay x @t_beckham1 pic.twitter.com/IzcaVN4uij
Sale didn’t allow three home runs in a game all of 2018 and allowed more than one just once. He did have a four-homer game and a three-homer game in 2017, both in September when he had tired down the stretch. By Game Score, this tied for the sixth-worst start of his career. So he has had starts this bad before — just not very often. Of concern: He averaged 95 mph with his fastball last season, but averaged 92.3 on Thursday, maxing out at 94.5. He also lacked command and was giving up rockets left and right. Otherwise …
As they say, however: It’s a long season. Never, ever overreact to Opening Day.