Another disappointment in the making
Credit to Author: BEN KRITZ, TMT| Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2019 17:08:12 +0000
THE Department of Transportation (DoTr) has apparently run out of patience with the foot-dragging of the so-called NAIA Consortium, and set a deadline of April 30 for a deal to be reached for the rehabilitation of the country’s overworked and badly outdated main airport. While the government’s ambition is in some ways admirable and justified, there may be historic reasons for slowing the pace of development.
The NAIA Consortium is an unusual grouping of several of the country’s conglomerates: AC Infrastructure Holdings; Aboitiz InfraCapital; Alliance Global Group; the Ramos-era relic Asia’s Emerging Dragon Corp.; Filinvest Development Corp.; JG Summit Holdings; and Metro Pacific Investments Corp. The strange bedfellows were given original proponent status by the government upon presenting a proposal to upgrade and operate NAIA, a 35-year, P350-billion deal that was later reduced to 15 years and P102 billion.
An alternative proposal was made by the GMR-Megawide partnership for an 18-year concession with a price tag of P155.9 billion, but the DoTr favored the NAIA Consortium’s 15-year plan, since it was nearly P2 billion per year cheaper than the GMR-Megawide offer.
The DoTr’s frustration is understandable; presenting an unsolicited project proposal and asking for original proponent status should indicate readiness to do a deal. Why the consortium has been stalling has no logical explanation, unless it is the natural result of the grouping itself, which on its face looks like something that would be about as cooperatively productive as a box of scorpions.
That the Manila International Airport is in serious need of renovation is obvious. It has been operating well beyond its design capacity for years, and while it may not officially be the worst airport in the world any longer, it is not far enough above the bottom of the list to be worth mentioning, and it won’t even be able to hold on to being judged as merely mediocre for very long if something isn’t done about it. Even if the longer-term vision is to relegate the airport to a secondary role like Tokyo’s Haneda,
Osaka International, or Taipei’s Songshan, the Manila airport is quickly approaching a point of uselessness. Luck and a rather incredible display of talent on the part of controllers and air crews have so far prevented a major disaster; time will not improve the odds, however.
Given the current atmosphere, there is real reason to worry it might actually take a disaster to catalyze the needed improvements. As things stand now, the best-case scenario is that the final approval of the upgrade project can happen sometime in the third quarter, with substantial work getting underway in the early part of next year.
The airport essentially needs a new, higher-capacity terminal — proper renovation of Terminal 1 would amount to the same thing — and an additional runway; anything less would be a complete waste of time and money. Those are formidable undertakings, however, and likely could not be completed in less than three to four year. Unless the airport was completely shut down and construction resources diverted from the conglomerate’s other projects, neither of which will happen.
The likely completion date of the NAIA upgrade is pushed even further into the future by the simple fact that it is being initiated in the midst of the government’s “build, build, build” infrastructure frenzy. While a great deal of work has gotten underway, the outcomes so far have shown that the government’s reach exceeds the country’s grasp by a considerable distance. There just simply aren’t enough skills and resources to go around, which is slowing things down. Progress is also being hindered by problems that should be considered normal and should have been anticipated at the outset of projects. For example, disputes over right-of-way have caused additional lengthy delays in the construction of both the LRT-1 rail extension to Cavite, and the new MRT-7 to Bulacan.
In addition to all that, the ongoing delay in the enactment of the 2019 budget, which as of now will not be possible before June, is slowing progress generally. It likely does not have a direct impact on ongoing projects apart from being another distraction, but the delay does affect anything new — which includes the NAIA project, the proposed new airport to be located in Bulacan, the Makati and Metro Manila subway projects, and the critically needed new water supply project, wherever it is to be located.
With half his term past, President Rodrigo Duterte’s Mussolini-like ambitions to leave a legacy of large-scale public works increasingly risks turning into the equally Mussolini-like result of a collection of half-finished disappointments. White elephants make lousy monuments; the government ought to reassess its priorities, shorten its horizons, and make sure that it isn’t actually building any.
Email: ben.kritz@manilatimes.net
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