Bubble Watch: Are mid-majors going to get edged out?
Editor’s note: The NCAA tournament Bubble Watch has been updated through Thursday’s games.
Nevada has been ranked in the top 15 for the entire season, Buffalo has lurked smack in the middle of the projected field for weeks now, Wofford is appearing in some mock brackets as a No. 8 seed, and the cool bracket-making kids these days are big believers in the likes of Utah State and Belmont.
Also, Gonzaga, however you choose to classify Mark Few’s program, is, as always, Gonzaga.
Given all that, how can 2019 possibly be in danger of offering a bad Selection Sunday for mid-majors?
It’s true Bubble Watch can’t see the future, nor peer into the furtive recesses of the preferences held by the individuals on the men’s basketball committee. But one thing Bubble Watch can do is count. Here’s where we are in terms of bids and mid-majors in 2019.
The mock-bracket consensus is that perhaps 37 bids will be absorbed by just the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. Throw in what’s likely to be at least a three-bid American (and possibly four bids), and you’re already up to 40 invites.
Naturally, there’s basketball left to be played, and there’s no guarantee these seven conferences will actually secure that many bids. But just for the sake of discussion, let’s consider these numbers: 40 bids for seven leagues, meaning, of course, 33 at-large spots going to those conferences.
As a dedicated reader of the Watch, you know there are just 36 total at-large slots available. In this scenario, then, there would be just three at-large bids for the 25 conferences below the top seven.
Needless to say, the committee will make room in the bracket for Nevada, Buffalo and, one presumes, Wofford, even if all of the above were to fail to win their conference tournaments. But that’s kind of the point, and indeed that’s where we’ve been now for the past four brackets.
Increasingly, the only way for mid-majors to increase their numbers in the field of 68 is through upsets in conference tournaments. A year ago, the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 both ended up having bid thieves, and San Diego State and Davidson joined league rivals Nevada and Rhode Island, respectively, in the field of 68.
In theory, a mid-major bid thief might be stealing a spot from a fellow mid-major, but the post-2014 math here has tended to work in the other direction. A mid-major bid thief is more likely to take an invite away from a middle-of-the-pack team in a major conference.
No, it wasn’t always like this. As recently as 2014, the six major conferences sent “just” 32 teams (counting automatic bids) into the NCAA tournament. Every year since then, however, that number’s been in the mid-to-high 30s, peaking at 38 in 2017.
Bid thievery in the MW and A-10 helped drive that figure “down” to 37 last year — the same number, to repeat, that mock brackets are forecasting for major-conference bids in 2019. In short, this is why Nevada, Buffalo and Wofford should all be recognized as great stories. The Wolf Pack, Bulls and Terriers are all pushing against what appears to be a strong and continuing trend.
Here’s how we’re projecting the bubble right now:
Bids from traditional “one-bid” leagues: 23 teams
Locks: 26 teams
The bubble: 29 teams for 19 available spots
Should be in: 9 teams
Work to do: 20 teams
ACC | Big 12| Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
Locks: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Should be in: Syracuse
Work to do: NC State, Clemson
In back-to-back games, Syracuse took its shots at Duke and North Carolina only to go 0-for-2. In the latter game, the Orange tied a season high by making 14 3-pointers and even that wasn’t enough to sway the result. The chances were missed, but, of course, there’s no harm done here (unless it leads to this team overlooking its next game at Wake Forest). Syracuse is still going to be a No. 8 seed or something close, and Jim Boeheim’s team still has one more regular-season opportunity to improve that position. Virginia will visit the Carrier Dome on Monday. (Updated: Feb. 26)
Kevin Keatts’ team drew one severely front-loaded conference schedule, and now that his guys have played Clemson, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Syracuse and Duke just in the past few weeks, they’re getting a well-deserved respite of sorts. The game coming up this weekend at Florida State will be no picnic, certainly, but other than that, NC State has games against Boston College and Georgia Tech left to play. The prospective No. 10 seed is looking solid at 20-8 overall and 8-7 in the ACC. (Updated: Feb. 24)
Late February was all about risk management for Clemson. The Tigers didn’t nail down an at-large bid by beating Boston College at home and Pittsburgh on the road. Then again, a team variously seen as either a No. 12 seed or as “first four out” material could have driven its bid probability down with a loss — or especially two — in a stretch like that. Currently 17-11 and 7-8 in the ACC, Clemson now faces the main selection event: North Carolina visits Littlejohn Coliseum this weekend. Beating the Tar Heels would give the Tigers a second Quad 1 win to place alongside their 59-51 win at home over Virginia Tech. (Updated: Feb. 28)
Locks: Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State
Should be in: Baylor
Work to do: Texas, TCU, Oklahoma
Baylor still refuses to be typecast. First came the Bears’ fast 6-2 start in Big 12 play. Then there was the hobbled and short-handed stretch, one in which King McClure and Makai Mason both missed games and Baylor fell to 7-5 in the conference. After that, Scott Drew’s team recovered nicely, and with Mason back in the lineup, BU won at Iowa State and secured a season sweep over the Cyclones. Now add still another curve to this road: Playing at home against a short-handed version of Texas, Drew’s men recorded one of their more lifeless halves of the entire Big 12 season before rallying to win in overtime. Baylor is churning toward something close to a No. 8 seed, and make no mistake, the Bears are doing so in a most mercurial fashion. (Updated: Feb. 28)
Despite playing without both Kerwin Roach II (suspension) and Dylan Osetkowski (illness), the Longhorns nearly recorded their first Quad 1 win in almost a month at Baylor. As it happens, however, UT fell short 84-83 and now sits at 15-13 overall and 7-8 in Big 12 play. If you’re thinking those numbers don’t add up to a No. 10 seed in the making, keep in mind Texas has some beautiful entries on its profile from earlier in the season, up to and including its neutral-floor win over North Carolina and home victories over Purdue and Kansas. The suspension of Roach introduces an element of uncertainty, but this is a team that proved in Waco it can still hit 15 3s in 45 minutes and score points in bunches. (Updated: Feb. 28)
The fourth Quad 2 loss of TCU’s season, in triple-overtime at West Virginia, doesn’t do too much additional harm to the profile of a team that entered the contest looking like a No. 9 or 10 seed. Those four losses could well be balanced or at least partially offset by the Horned Frogs’ two big Quad 1 wins, both of which happen to have been recorded against Iowa State. Which brings us to the sub-.500 question yet again: TCU looks like a group that could wrap up Big 12 play at 7-11 or so. Being four games under .500 used to be a no-fly zone for at-large aspirants, even with a committee that insists it doesn’t look at conference records. People who make mock brackets, however, are taking the committee at its word in 2019. Anyway, Oklahoma may well be right there with the Frogs on this same under-.500 horizon. The committee will probably have more than one opportunity to be taken at its word. (Updated: Feb. 26)
Not many teams through history have been 5-10 in conference play yet able to conclude that they’re still in the hunt for an at-large bid. Then there’s Oklahoma in 2019. The Sooners are still being shown as a No. 10 seed in mock brackets thanks to two basic factors. First, there was a relatively strong non-conference performance, highlighted by wins over Wofford (at home) and Florida (on a neutral floor). Second, membership in the Big 12 confers the privilege of knowing that many of your losses aren’t “bad” losses. It may seem crazy at first glance, but OU is still alive. (Updated: Feb. 25)
Locks: Marquette, Villanova
Should be in: St. John’s
Work to do: Seton Hall, Butler
Not to belabor the point, but St. John’s is 3-1 this season against the best two teams in the Big East, Marquette and Villanova. Against the rest of the league, however, Chris Mullin’s men are a mere 5-7. That latter record now includes a rather listless 84-73 loss to Xavier at Carnesecca Arena. Granted, Mustapha Heron sat out the evening with a sore knee, while Shamorie Ponds appeared to injure his right wrist early in the game. Though the junior continued to play, he ended up scoring just 13 points on 5-of-16 shooting. Regardless, this was the worst thing that could happen to the St. John’s profile given the team’s remaining schedule. The home game against Xavier goes in the books as a Quad 3 loss, whereas an upcoming road test at DePaul and a rematch with Travis Steele’s group in Cincinnati will both be Quad 2 affairs. It appears there could be slippage in what previously looked like a No. 9 seed for the Johnnies. (Updated: Feb. 28)
Despite losing at St. John’s, the Pirates should be fine on paper. There’s still the Hall’s neutral-floor victory over Kentucky, of course, just as there’s still the road win at Maryland. So, yes, Kevin Willard’s team should be in good shape as a likely No. 11 seed. Rest easy, optimists! … But for you pessimists out there, here’s the thing: Seton Hall’s remaining games are at Georgetown and at home against Marquette and Villanova. Is it really so unthinkable that the Pirates (currently 16-11 overall and 7-8 in the Big East) could lose two or, dare Bubble Watch say it, all three of those? This glass might be half empty after all. (Updated: Feb. 23)
The Bulldogs have been trying really hard to take off for much of February, but they are now at the end of the runway. Losing to Providence isn’t particularly damaging — St. John’s did it twice — but the fact that Butler did so at home does make it a Quad 3 defeat, the first one incurred this season by a team that’s 15-13 and 6-9 in its league. LaVall Jordan’s men now must try to play their way into the field from “first four out” turf (at best) with games at Villanova, at home against Xavier and on the road for the rematch with the Friars in Providence. Even a win on the road against the Wildcats may not carry the necessary luster to get this job done. The Bulldogs will have an awful lot of work to do at the Big East tournament. (Updated: Feb. 26)
Locks: Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland
Should be in: Iowa
Work to do: Ohio State, Minnesota
There are no drop-dead awful defenses in the Big Ten this season, but it is true that Iowa ranks last in terms of points allowed per possession in league play. It’s also true the Hawkeyes certainly looked that part in allowing Ohio State to ring up 90 points in 70 possessions in Columbus. The result was a 20-point loss for the visiting team, a group that in all probability is still going to earn a No. 6 or 7 seed in the field of 68. So, in what is virtually foreordained to be a last write-up on Iowa before Fran McCaffery’s team is made a lock either by results or the calendar, allow Bubble Watch to note that defense continues to be a concern with this team. (Updated: Feb. 26)
Ohio State beating Iowa so easily at home was more significant than winning at home might ordinarily be for a projected No. 10 seed. Yes, the Buckeyes were occupying that relatively safe position in mock brackets before tipoff, but the struggles of Chris Holtmann’s group on offense over the previous few games gave the indication of a team that could, conceivably, falter. Instead, Justin Ahrens went nuts (29 points) and OSU beat the Hawkeyes by 20. Of course, Ohio State still has three challenging games yet to play (on the road against Purdue and Northwestern and at home against Wisconsin), but the worst-case scenario going into the Big Ten tournament is now 18-13 overall and 8-10 in-conference. With those 18 wins, including the one at Cincinnati, that should get the job done even in the worst case. (Updated: Feb. 26)
Now Minnesota’s season truly begins. At 18-11 and 8-10 in the Big Ten, the Gophers can play their way into the tournament by winning one or, better yet, two Quad 1 games against Purdue in Minneapolis and Maryland in College Park. Richard Pitino’s team appears to be right on the line between “in” and “out,” along with fellow peers in peril Temple, Clemson and Utah State. Minnesota made an emphatic statement by winning at Wisconsin in January before fairly staggering through a 2-6 February. March now beckons, and the Gophers have what every team says it wants. Jordan Murphy and his mates have a chance. (Updated: Feb. 28)
Should be in: Washington
Work to do: Arizona State
Well, that was unexpected. Mike Hopkins’ team was using superb defense to crush all resistance in what everyone agreed was an aberrantly weak Pac-12. Then the Huskies went on the road and ran into the most hapless of all the league’s teams, Cal, whereupon the Bears proceeded to light up this vaunted defense to the tune of 1.20 points per possession. For reference, that’s about what Gonzaga did to this same D when the Bulldogs played Washington in Spokane back in December. The loss in Berkeley goes in the books as a 76-73 Quad 4 defeat when, prior to Thursday night, UW didn’t even have any Quad 3 losses. This absolutely makes what was previously projected as a No. 7 seed far more questionable. (Updated: March 1)
Bubble Watch could be persuaded to take Arizona State losing at Oregon in stride, relatively speaking. The Ducks actually look pretty good in NET terms, and a loss in Eugene is categorized as a Quad 1 defeat. That said, the Sun Devils were hammered 79-51, and there is a danger in Bobby Hurley’s team letting its own NET ranking fall too far. Entering the game against UO, Arizona State was ranked No. 63, meaning ASU was already near the bottom of the at-large-hopeful bin along with the likes of Seton Hall and Minnesota. The committee isn’t just going to go down the list of rankings from Nos. 1 to 68, of course, but a number dropping into the 70s would not be a positive development for a team that started the week slotted for a No. 11 seed. (Updated: March 1)
Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State
Should be in: Auburn, Ole Miss
Work to do: Florida, Alabama
The knock on the Tigers is that that they’re an efficient bunch beloved of the NET (having entered the game at Kentucky ranked a lofty No. 20) but that, oh by the way, Auburn doesn’t actually beat any good teams. Needless to say, losing to the Wildcats at Rupp Arena by 27 points did zero to refute that school of thought. Bruce Pearl’s men are now just 2-6 against SEC opponents listed as locks, should-be-ins or work-to-dos by Bubble Watch, and the wins came at home against Alabama and Florida. AU is shown as a No. 8 seed, and with three Quad 1 opportunities remaining on the schedule, there’s still a chance for this team to both improve its position in the bracket and, yes, to shake its “all stats, no statements” reputation. (Updated: Feb. 23)
The Rebels let one slip away and lost at home to Tennessee 73-71. Kermit Davis was displeased by a charge drawn by Admiral Schofield on a Devontae Shuler 3-point attempt 30 feet from the basket in the closing seconds, and the coach’s protests earned him a technical foul. The home crowd was predictably irate, but Bubble Watch is all about the whole-season big picture. First, Ole Miss will have an equally good chance at a signature win (an even better one, actually) when Kentucky visits Oxford next week. Second, the Rebels are being slotted on perhaps the No. 8 line in mock brackets, meaning this program’s on the cusp of earning its best seed in either 17 or 18 years. Carry on, Coach Davis, you are working relative wonders. (Updated: Feb. 28)
Few at-large aspirants rely more heavily on forcing turnovers than Florida. The Gators have actually been outscored in SEC play on the “effective” (turnover-less) possessions recorded by both UF and its opponents. Nevertheless, the fact that Mike White’s men have forced those same conference foes to give the ball away on 23 percent of their offensive possessions has evened those scales. Florida is expected to earn something in the area of a No. 10 seed, and when you fill out your bracket, you might want to glance at that No. 7 seed’s guards and how well they take care of the ball. (Updated: Feb. 28)
An eight-bid SEC is beginning to look fairly solid. Alabama did its bit to raise that probability by beating the league’s ninth aspirant for a bid, South Carolina, on the Gamecocks’ home floor. The win lifts the Crimson Tide to 17-11 overall and 8-7 in conference play. More importantly, Avery Johnson’s team was being slotted in mock brackets for either a No. 11 or 12 seed before the South Carolina game but will now close its regular season with nothing but Quad 1 opportunities (at home against LSU and Auburn and on the road at Auburn). There are no proverbial bad losses to be had there, and this is still a team that beat Kentucky in Tuscaloosa. Yes, it’s looking like the SEC might end up with eight bids, very likely no more and quite possibly no less. (Updated: Feb. 26)
Locks: Houston, Cincinnati
Work to do: UCF, Temple
Congratulations, UCF. You recorded your first Quad 1 win of the season with your 75-63 victory at South Florida. That’s not going to get you into the field by itself, but it fills an important hole on the profile for a projected No. 11 seed. Right, about that seed: Finishing up with games at Houston, against Cincinnati and at Temple gives you the perfect chance to do something about that. Keep winning, Knights. (Updated: Feb. 28)
This situation is becoming clearer and clearer: Temple beat Houston, period. That, it appears, may be more or less everything the Owls have to show on their profile. To be sure, there’s another Quad 1 victory on the ledger, the team’s 70-69 overtime win at South Florida in mid-February. Nevertheless, beating the Bulls doesn’t carry quite the same “in the room” cache as giving the Cougars their only loss of the season. Fran Dunphy’s guys did have a shot to perhaps play themselves off the “last four in” list with a better win than the one in Tampa, but Temple lost 81-73 at Memphis. No more Quad 1 chances remain, unless this team sees Houston in the conference tournament. The Owls’ signature victory may not be enough to get it done, though. In the meantime, Dunphy and his men should absolutely be hoping UH continues to win. (Updated: Feb. 26)
Locks: Gonzaga, Nevada, Buffalo
Should be in: Wofford
Work to do: VCU, Utah State, Belmont, Saint Mary’s, Furman, Lipscomb
The Southern Conference has never sent an at-large team to the NCAA tournament, but there’s a first time for everything. Wofford is in this discussion because the Terriers are 25-4, with the losses coming to North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi State. Mike Young’s team additionally own Quad 1 wins at Furman, UNC Greensboro and East Tennessee State. Finally, it’s worth noting Wofford won at South Carolina by 20, even though that shows up on the profile as a Quad 2 victory. In fact, the Terriers are a perfect 19-0 against Quads 2, 3 and 4. (Updated: Feb. 28)
At 22-6 overall and in sole possession of first place in the Atlantic 10, Mike Rhoades’ team has a No. 10 seed waiting for it next month if mock brackets are to be trusted. Of course, mock brackets in February can’t necessarily be trusted. Nevertheless, if VCU has a plausible method at hand for turning projections into reality, it is defense. In the Rams’ 85-57 win at home over George Washington last weekend, Marcus Evans and company uncorked a 21-0 second-half run as they held the Colonials scoreless for more than 10 minutes. That’s the kind of performance that can earn an at-large bid, even in the absence of Quad 1 opportunities. Keep winning, Rams. (Updated: Feb. 26)
The entire Mountain West has had this game circled forever, and now it’s finally here. Nevada is coming to Utah State at last, so allow Bubble Watch to phrase this question in its starkest terms: Can the Aggies, currently listed as one of Lunardi’s last four teams in, get an at-large bid if they lose to the Wolf Pack in Logan? The committee has done far wilder things than that, goodness knows, but on paper it would be difficult. USU’s best win on the season is a neutral-floor victory over Saint Mary’s, and Craig Smith’s men would be going up against competing bubble profiles with better bling than that. Conversely, a home win over Nevada at least gives this team its very best shot. For the better part of the past two months, Utah State has played with an eye towed having this game matter. Now it’s here, and it does. (Updated: Feb. 26)
Belmont won a game in Pauley Pavilion against UCLA in December, but (fans in Westwood will want to stop reading right here) it’s the fact that Rick Byrd’s team swept a nonconference home-and-away series with local rival Lipscomb that really brightens a team sheet in 2019. Now the Bruins of Nashville are competing with Ja Morant and Murray State for Ohio Valley Conference supremacy. Morant likely has OVC Player of the Year locked up (Bubble Watch is out on a limb here), but in any other season voters would be taking a very long look at Dylan Windler and his prolific yet highly efficient scoring as a stretch-4. Belmont is variously shown as one of the last teams in or as lurking just outside the field in most projections, but at 23-4, Byrd’s guys have won 12 straight and are looking to run the table. (Updated: Feb. 28)
In six of the past nine years, the West Coast Conference has sent two or more teams into the NCAA tournament. Saint Mary’s is working to join presumptive No. 1 seed Gonzaga and make that WCC run seven of the past 10 years. At 20-10, the Gaels own one of Bubble Watch’s more obscure Quad 1 wins, a road victory at New Mexico State in November. More recently, Randy Bennett’s team hasn’t lost to a non-Gonzaga opponent in over a month. Speaking of the Bulldogs, they’ll come to Moraga this weekend for the WCC regular-season finale for both teams. A win for the home team would be just one more piece of data in a profile made up of the entire season, where each game is considered equally and . . . no, just kidding. A win would change everything, not to mention put SMC into an exclusive club with just Tennessee and North Carolina as fellow “We beat the Zags” members. (Updated: March 1)
Furman Paladins
It’s a mark of how strong the Southern Conference is in 2019 that Furman can lose at home to Wofford and still be in the discussion for an at-large bid. No, the Paladins aren’t “should be in” material just yet, but Bob Richey’s group does have that memorable Quad 1 win at Villanova and the Dins could be helped along by the mighty SoCon in still another way. The loss to the Terriers drops Furman in the conference title race to such an extent that it’s conceivable Richey’s guys could see Wofford in the league tournament prior to the title game. A third game against the Terriers on a neutral floor in Asheville, North Carolina, would be a Quad 1 opportunity. (Updated: Feb. 28)
Lipscomb Bisons
After a costly Quad 3 loss at Florida Gulf Coast, Lipscomb finished its regular season with wins at home over NJIT and on the road over North Alabama. The Bisons show two Quad 1 wins on their profile, at TCU and at Liberty, and their NET ranking, even after the FGCU game, remained higher than those of teams like St. John’s, Seton Hall and Arizona State. Then again, that same ranking is also 10 or 15 spots lower than ones carried by other bubbly aspirants like Utah State and Saint Mary’s. Perhaps most daunting, however, is the fact that Lipscomb’s done with Quad 1 opportunities. Even another meeting with Liberty in the Atlantic Sun tournament would take place, if it occurs, on the home floor of the top-seeded Bisons and would thus qualify as Quad 2. Such a meeting, anyway, would take place in the title game. Securing an auto bid by winning three home games appears more likely on paper than does an at-large. (Updated: March 2)