Gary Sanchez: Comeback player of the year or bust?
TAMPA, Fla. — For the bulk of the 12-minute interview session Gary Sanchez had at his locker as New York Yankees pitchers and catchers arrived to spring training, he was asked about one topic.
How will he rebound from his abysmal 2018?
Finally, after answering variations of that question, Sanchez made an eyebrow-raising admission.
Aaron Judge says he’s taken full advantage of a fully healthy offseason, working on his swing and improving his approach. Judge missed eight weeks last season with a wrist injury, but says he’s at 100 percent and “feels like it never even happened.”
Giancarlo Stanton says he’s looking forward to getting more experience playing in the American League and playing games that matter from May through October in his second year in pinstripes.
Spring training is almost here. Check out reporting dates for teams in Florida and Arizona, including the defending champion Red Sox.
“To be honest with you, I forgot about last year already,” he said through an interpreter.
Many Yankees fans probably wish they could be so lucky.
Comeback Player of the Year? MVP? Bust 2.0? Based on the rapidly up then suddenly down nature of Sanchez’s first three seasons in the big leagues, it stands to reason that he could be considered any of the three this season. The Yankees and some baseball prognosticators certainly don’t expect the latter to happen.
“Physically, he comes in here in a better place than he’s come in a couple of years,” manager Aaron Boone said. “It’s the behind-the-curtain stuff that looks really good with him.”
As he embarks on what could be a redemptive 2019 season, various projection sites are quite bullish on the embattled catcher. They are envisioning a better year offensively, one that will align more closely with what Sanchez has done in the past.
To match those expectations as well as his own, it’s probably wise for Sanchez to take the amnesiac approach. Besides, you probably wouldn’t want to keep a season with a .186 batting average and a league-high 18 passed balls at the forefront of your mind, either.
“There’s no reason to keep dwelling on the past with that year,” Sanchez said.
Let’s all move on then.
According to a series of statistical projections prescribed for Sanchez at Baseball-Reference.com, the 26-year-old ought to hit .245 with 24 home runs, 66 RBIs and an .807 OPS this season. When looking at a compilation of other projection systems used by FanGraphs (from Steamer to Depth Charts to THE BAT and others), the range of projections for Sanchez skews slightly higher.
FanGraphs’ compiled projection data have Sanchez hitting between .245 and .260, smashing 28 to 32 home runs, driving in 78 to 95 baserunners and posting an OPS between .805 and .828 this season.
All of these numbers would be notable increases from what Sanchez posted in an inconsistent, injury-affected 2018 season. If he ends up with 95 RBIs this season, it would set a new career high. If he hits 32 homers, he’d be just one short of the career-high 33 he had in 2017.
“You want to improve all aspects of your game, and this year is not an exception,” Sanchez said.
Back to last season. In addition to the .186 average, Sanchez had 18 homers, 53 RBIs and a .697 OPS in 89 games last season. He was slowed by a pair of disabled list stints due to groin injuries, both after a trip to Tampa Bay’s Tropicana Field.
Sanchez also fought through a shoulder injury that was repaired with surgery this past offseason. Because of the procedure, he’ll be eased into action at the start of spring training, though the Yankees contend that he is fully healthy.
“I can say right now that it feels normal,” Sanchez said.
When he does think back to a year ago, Sanchez doesn’t use his injury issues as a crutch for his poor on-field performance.
“It was definitely a tough season with different adversities, for sure,” he said. “But I can’t use that as an excuse. It could have come the other way. I could’ve had a good season and still had to deal with some sort of discomfort. But you’ve got to put the year behind and focus on this year and this opportunity that we have.
“I’m very excited to have the opportunity to be healthy and to go out there feeling good and being 100 percent. That’s one of the goals this year: to stay healthy throughout the whole season.”
A healthy Sanchez could be a difference-maker for the Yankees. After all, he still has an elite arm that gives baserunners pause, and he possesses the kind of at-bat pop that makes opposing pitchers cautious when facing him.
Perhaps a healthier year and a performance more closely in line with his All-Star past, when he flirted with winning Rookie of the Year, could have given the Yankees more than the 100 wins they amassed last season. Who knows? Maybe it would have been enough to get New York past Boston in the postseason.
What the Yankees know for sure is that making sure Sanchez enters the season in a strong mental space is of paramount concern. It was such a priority that Boone spent time in the offseason traveling to Sanchez’s home in the Dominican Republic to visit the catcher and his wife.
“It’s definitely a touch of encouragement to see that from your team,” Sanchez said. “What can I say about Boone? Boone has been great. From the moment he got here, he’s the guy.
“It has to do with that relationship that I’ve developed. We talk a lot. We talk a lot about baseball. We talk about a lot of other things that don’t involve baseball. He had a better opportunity to get to know me as a person besides the bullpen and just focusing on the positive things in the future.”
Boone echoed that sentiment and underscored the significance he believes Sanchez holds on this team.
“First of all, I’m a fan of the guy, the person. So I desire to get to know him and want to get to know him,” Boone said. “And you couple that with the fact that he plays such an important position for us behind the plate. Being a young player behind the plate is a challenging position, especially when you consider that he’s a guy that’s truly a two-way player in carrying as much load as he does offensively. It’s important for us to continue to work alongside him because he’s such an important player for us.”
According to the manager, Sanchez spent much of his offseason working on his flexibility, agility and catching stances and techniques. All of that has allowed him to come to spring training in peak physical condition, Boone said.
“A lot of the explosive stuff that we test our guys, kind of the routine when they come [to spring training] — everything from vertical jump to body-weight things they have to do — that kind of gives you a good peek behind the curtain about what shape a guy is really in,” he said. “Sometimes we get caught up in what a guy weighs, but a lot of the tests reveal the guys that are in really good physical condition. And when you can measure that against where guys have been in the past, he comes in [good].”
Sanchez might have tested well at the outset of the spring, but the real test begins in five weeks. Just how well will he live up to his projections and expectations this season?
Pass this test, and this potential Comeback Player of the Year candidate will have a season he’ll never want to forget.