Why each remaining suitor will (or won’t) sign Harper, Machado
Jeff Passan says Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remaining free agents into spring training is normal in today’s league. (1:08)
OK, one more time, let’s reset everything and check in with our two favorite free agents. It has been 114 days and counting since Chris Sale struck out Manny Machado for the final out of the World Series. Consider that in the first 100 days of Franklin Roosevelt’s presidency, 13 major new laws were passed, including the Emergency Banking Act, the creation of the Federal Emergency Relief, the creation of the Civilian Conservation Corps, the creation of the Agricultural Adjustment Administration, and the establishment of the Tennessee Valley Authority. Yet, here we sit, with Machado and Bryce Harper still unsigned (to say nothing of Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel; rumors on those two are dryer than the Sahara in the middle of a heat wave). Let’s review the teams interested in each player.
Thinking for Harper: Phillies, Nats, Giants, Padres, mystery team
Machado: Phillies, White Sox, Padres, Yankees, mystery team
With spring training underway, it’s a matter of time before Bryce Harper and Manny Machado sign free-agent deals … we think. ESPN baseball writers Bradford Doolittle, Eddie Matz and Sam Miller predict with whom and when the sluggers will sign.
Doolittle: Harper — Padres, Thursday; Machado — White Sox, Friday
Matz: Harper — Phillies, Friday; Machado — White Sox, Saturday
Miller: Harper — Phillies, Tuesday; Machado — Padres, March 14
Why it will happen: Philadelphia is the one team not shy about admitting it can dangle big mountains of cash Harper’s way. The Phillies’ current projected payroll, according to Cot’s Contracts data, sits at $162.5 million, well below the $206 million tax threshold. But they also have few long-term commitments beyond 2020, with just Aaron Nola, Jean Segura, Scott Kingery and Andrew McCutchen signed for more than two seasons. From a baseball standpoint, the Phillies were also just 11th in the National League in runs scored, and their right-handed-heavy lineup could use a lefty masher.
What could stop it: Most likely because Harper just doesn’t want to play in Philadelphia.
Why it will happen: The Giants not only are desperate for an outfielder — their current group of fourth and fifth outfielders on the 40-man roster projects for a combined 1.6 WAR, worst in the majors — but they need a new anchor to build around as the Buster Posey/Brandon Crawford/Brandon Belt core continues to age. According to weighted runs created, which adjusts for park effects, the Giants had the worst offense in the majors in 2018. The Giants haven’t had a 20-homer guy since Crawford in 2015 and haven’t had a 30-homer player since Barry Bonds in 2004.
What could stop it: Oracle Park, the stadium formerly known as AT&T Park. It’s maybe the toughest home run park for a left-handed hitter in the majors. Does Harper really want to go there and watch his fly balls melt on the warning track? Consider that Belt has 42 home runs at home in his career and 70 on the road, and Crawford has 32 at home and 55 on the road. No, they aren’t the power hitters Harper is, but Harper is going to have trouble putting up big numbers there.
Why it will happen: They’re young, they’re building for the future, it’s an easy hop to Harper’s hometown of Las Vegas, the weather is great and the media coverage will be less intrusive than if he joins a big-market team. Plus, maybe he likes brown.
What could stop it: Maybe he doesn’t like brown. The Padres might have a bright future, but they’re still in a division with the Dodgers and haven’t made the playoffs since 2006. Are they really going to outbid the Phillies? If this group of prospects doesn’t pan out, Harper could disappear into no-man’s land, playing late games on the West Coast that nobody outside of San Diego will be watching.
Why it will happen: The comfort level of staying in Washington, D.C., has to be a factor, especially if the money is close to other offers — assuming, of course, that the money is still on the table. The Nationals have spent big this offseason on Patrick Corbin and others and will also try to extend Anthony Rendon — who, you know, might actually be the better player, if less famous. It seems possible that if the choice is between the Phillies or Nationals, why wouldn’t Harper remain in D.C.?
What could stop it: The Nationals’ public suggestion that they made a 10-year, $300 million offer was really just a smokescreen, and they never had any intention of bringing him back. Plus, they might have one of the best outfielders in the game without Harper in Juan Soto, Victor Robles, Adam Eaton and Michael Taylor.
You can’t blame the Padres for being interested in a superstar in his prime. But the timing just isn’t right, the moment isn’t right, and the deal would seem destined to fall flat.
There’s one thing Philadelphia wants from stars, and if either of baseball’s top free agents sign there, they’d better deliver.
Three and a half months after the pursuit started, here’s where things stand with Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and their suitors. Plus, updates on Craig Kimbrel, Nolan Arenado and other stars seeking paydays.
Mystery team
Why it will happen: Philly makes the highest offer, but Harper doesn’t really want to go there. The Giants decide they need to rebuild. The Padres were hoping to get him only if the price was low enough. The Nationals … meh, they decided to give long-term money to Rendon. That leaves the mystery team, maybe on a shorter-term, higher annual average. It could be anybody. It could be … the Yankees. Because Harper is still a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium, and they could easily rotate him, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton between the two corner spots and DH without any issues.
What could stop it: Harper really, really likes brown. And only one team is switching to brown uniforms in 2020.
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it will happen: See above. The Phillies want a superstar. They’ve locked up ace Aaron Nola. They have rotation depth. They have a new shortstop in Jean Segura and a good power hitter in Rhys Hoskins. But they haven’t finished above .500 since 2011. This regime under Matt Klentak and Gabe Kapler needs a winning season. Machado will help get them there.
What will stop it: Not Maikel Franco. Most likely because Machado doesn’t want to play in Philly, either. Maybe he takes a short-term deal from the Yankees, sacrificing a larger, long-term payout for a chance to play in New York.
Why it will happen: The White Sox are itching to be relevant again after six consecutive winning seasons. It’s clear they’re interested in Machado, and Ken Rosenthal just tweeted they remain a “strong factor” for Machado’s services. They need a third baseman. I mean, of course they do. Have they had a good one since Robin Ventura? To be fair, they need a lot. They lost 100 games last year. Maybe without any other offers he’s really enamored with, Machado elects to return to the American League and join his brother-in-law Yonder Alonso and buddy Jon Jay on the White Sox, where he becomes the marquee player on a team in a big market.
What will stop it: Did we mention the Sox lost 100 games? They have some kids coming, but there’s no guarantee this club is going to turn things around in the near future. Plus, the rumored offers from the White Sox seem to be well short of what Machado can get somewhere else.
As winter bleeds into spring, here’s how the free-agent landscape looks right now.
• Passan: The Bryce, Manny stalemate and the latest on MLB free agency »
• Miller: Welcome to a small-market team’s worst nightmare »
• Olney: The next Aaron Nola? These stars could look to cash in now (ESPN+) »
• Gonzalez: How Dodgers’ clubhouse embodies baseball’s free-agency concerns »
San Diego Padres
Why it will happen: One report had the Padres offering Machado more than $240 million, maybe as much as $280 million. That would seem to easily trump what the White Sox were reportedly offering. If it’s between the Padres and the White Sox, the Padres can also sell Machado on having a better farm system. Maybe the Padres even dangle playing shortstop (with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. moving to third base when he’s ready for the majors). Or imagine this: The Padres sign Harper and Machado on the same day and they become best bros and lead the Padres to five straight NL West titles.
What will stop it: Machado is from Miami and might prefer a home closer to the East Coast. The home parks for the Phillies and White Sox are terrific home run parks, while Petco isn’t, and don’t underestimate that selling point to a home run-hitter. Sign both Harper and Machado? And switch to brown uniforms? Don’t tease us, Schoenfield.
Why it will happen: It’s the Yankees. They find a $(*#!@! way to make these things happen. Plus, Machado wants to play there.
What will stop it: The Yankees actually are happy with Miguel Andujar at third base. Plus, they’re really saving their money for next offseason, when Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Xander Bogaerts, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale and J.D. Martinez are all potential free agents.
Mystery team
Why it will happen: Because some team will suddenly realize, “Hey, you know, maybe we could use a 26-year-old guy who can play shortstop or third base and has averaged 36 home runs, 5.8 WAR and 159 games played the past four seasons.”
What will stop it: Baseball owners gonna do baseball owner stuff.