Alvarez vs. Kovalev II breakdown: Who has the advantage?
Eleider “Storm” Alvarez makes the first defense of his WBO world light heavyweight title against Sergey Kovalev on Saturday, hoping for a repeat of a spectacular win in August.
The rematch will air live on ESPN+ in the United States at midnight ET from the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
Alvarez’s upset of former champion Kovalev has raised the question — is Kovalev still the same dangerous fighter he once was? ESPN breaks down the fight.
Alvarez sowed seeds of doubt in Kovalev’s mind after condemning him to a humiliating seventh-round KO defeat in August.
After being crushed, is the “Krusher” now a shell of the hardened and unforgiving puncher he was before his back-to-back defeats to Andre Ward in 2016 and 2017?
Kovalev (32-3-1, 28 KOs) will point to the valid fact that he was well in control of the fight before quickly falling apart. The two-time light heavyweight titleholder was ahead on all three scorecards — 59-55, 59-55 and 58-56 — when Colombia’s Montreal-based Alvarez (24-0, 12 KOs) floored him three times in the seventh round.
It was an unexpected outcome, since Kovalev had become increasingly dominant as the fight progressed and went into the title defense as the division’s No 1.
A third defeat in his last five fights has left Kovalev vulnerable. His two wins following a points and stoppage loss to Ward were not against top-level opposition, and it has been three years or more since he beat the likes of Jean Pascal and Nadjib Mohammedi inside the distance.
There was controversy and debate around both losses to Ward (certainly the first one), and some accused Kovalev of mentally quitting in the rematch with the now-retired American.
It was not long ago that Kovalev was one of the most feared punchers in boxing, and he went into the first Ward clash with 26 knockouts in 31 fights.
But Kovalev no longer has an intimidating aura, and Alvarez, who has an unblemished record, will believe he can repeat what he has already done once.
After absorbing Kovalev’s punches, Alvarez launched a perfectly-timed ambush and finished the Russian in clinical style.
Alvarez also knocked out former champion Lucian Bute nearly two years ago and, with his current form, seems the more likely to finish the fight early.
Advantage: Alvarez
Kovalev ended a three-fight stint with trainer Abror Tursunpulatov and is training now with Buddy McGirt, whom the Russian hopes will improve his defense.
What also needs working on is Kovalev’s stamina.
The Russian Kovalev, 35, who is based in Los Angeles, blamed his defeat to Alvarez, 34, on stamina, saying he overtrained.
But you can’t take miles off the clock, and Alvarez, although only a year younger, is the fresher of the two, with fewer fights since they both turned professional ten years ago.
In recent years, Kovalev has admitted to drinking too much.
There have been stories about a lack of training for previous fights and acrimonious splits with trainers.
Kovalev has unraveled dramatically in two fights recently, and there is not much confidence he could dominate again over 12 rounds at an elite level.
Advantage: Alvarez
Despite Kovalev being repeatedly bounced off the canvas in the seventh round like a basketball last summer, let’s remember he was winning the fight.
After three, close opening rounds, Kovalev dominated the fourth round with a variety of shots. It was Kovalev’s punches that contained more power, and he also targeted the body.
After six rounds, Kovalev’s punches were more effective than Alvarez.
The two-time world champion is an experienced campaigner who, after winning the WBO belt in 2013 with a devastating knockout of Nathan Cleverly, went on to beat the likes of the evergreen Bernard Hopkins (unanimous points) and Pascal (twice), while the majority thought he should have also got the decision over Ward.
That is more than Alvarez has achieved by far, and if Kovalev can find the energy to repeat the form he showed in the fourth round in August throughout the fight, he will earn his belt back.
Advantage: Kovalev
Kovalev faces a maximum of four years in prison because of a felony assault charge, after he was accused of punching a woman in the face in June. Kovalev was arrested on June 9 last year in connection with an incident in Big Bear Lake, California.
He was charged with assault likely to cause great bodily injury and on Aug. 27 pleaded not guilty, according to court records.
The incident happened two months before losing to Alvarez and raises the question whether the strain of the court case has had an effect on Kovalev’s preparations, with a preliminary hearing due on March 14.
As well as the charges hanging over him, and changing trainers, Kovalev is battling to reverse a slide in form that has seen him lose three in his last fight fights.
Alvarez, meanwhile, has had no out-of-the-ring distractions, is unbeaten and coming off a spectacular finish against Kovalev. He is also fiercely determined to show the first fight was no fluke.
Advantage: Alvarez