Advantage Osaka or Kvitova in the Aussie Open final? Your guess is as good as ours
Stephanie Brantz and Pam Shriver look ahead to the Women’s final between Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova at the 2019 Australian Open. (1:57)
MELBOURNE, Australia — The one thing we can tell you for certain ahead of the Petra Kvitova–Naomi Osaka battle for the Australian Open title is that nothing is certain. While so many previous finals have had clear-cut favorites, this one does not.
Kvitova and Osaka are playing next-level tennis. The champ will have not only a trophy, but the honor of being called the top-ranked player. The consolation prize for the runner-up? A leap to the world No. 2.
How is this going to play out? Here are some thoughts from experts around the game and key stats:
Darren Cahill, former coach of Andre Agassi, Lleyton Hewitt and Simona Halep, current ESPN analyst: “It’s really about who controls the nerves and who handles it better. Petra’s played incredibly well in the WTA events and is coming off a win at Sydney. Naomi, what she’s done speaks for itself. Last year at this time, she was ranked 70 in the world now she has a chance to be No 1. They’re two of the biggest hitters, they’re two players who can take the racket out of a player’s hands. It’s really about who handles the moment better. We know Naomi played the US Open with no fear. Will it be different second time round? Petra hasn’t been in a Grand Slam final for a few years, since she won Wimbledon in 2014, so will it be a different feeling for her.”
Patrick Mouratoglou, Serena Williams‘ coach: “For me, the main key is the emotions. Both have a lot of power and the ability to play very fast. It will depend on how aggressive they are mentally and how they handle the situation emotionally. This is the fittest I’ve seen Petra for years.”
Jill Craybas, former top 50 player in singles and doubles: “I’ve noticed Kvitova is taking the ball on the rise very well, but I think she’s doing it with a little bit more precision, hitting it flat, and it’s really skidding off the court. Sometimes, Osaka runs side to side on the baseline, and if she does that, I feel like Kvitova’s going to be in control.”
Mark Hlawaty, former hitting partner of Serena: “Kvitova’s been hot since Day 1, and it’s going to be a matter of if she can sustain that in the final. Osaka has the skills and weapons to blunt that heat and almost put a blanket over it. It’ll be a little bit on Kvitova’s serve and first shot. If she is able to get a good serve and then her first hit puts Osaka in trouble, things are going to go her way. If she doesn’t serve well and doesn’t get a good first strike, I think Osaka moves well and is able to really counter-attack well with her two-handed backhand.”
Jo Durie, former world No 5, current Eurosport commentator: “For Osaka, it’s her first serve. Kvitova’s going to go after Osaka’s second serve. She’s been returning really well these two weeks. I think Osaka’s going to get a few more balls back, and Petra might be a bit surprised about how well Naomi moves now. I’m thinking once Naomi gets into the rallies, if they go on any longer than three or four shots, then she’ll win most of those. I’m sure Petra will want to just finish it as quickly as she can.”
Petra Kvitova dominates American Danielle Collins in the second set of her semifinal match to advance to the Australian Open final for the first time.
Cahill: “I think Naomi’s going to have many, many years of having cracks at it, chances to win a major. Petra’s a little bit different, more so because of her journey and what she’s been through. I think emotionally it’s going to mean more for her. I think it maybe relaxes her a little more. Because when you think something’s not achievable anymore, then get a second chance, it means that much more.”
Mouratoglou: “For both, this is probably the most important of their career. Kvitova, because she never won a Grand Slam outside of Wimbledon and because of what she’s been through. Osaka’s been so composed after the win at the US Open. To be able to handle that and continue to win only gives her confidence. Petra can obviously win, but I doubt she will be at her best considering the circumstances.”
Craybas: “I think a little bit more for Kvitova, just after everything she’s gone through. Even the other day after she won her semifinal, she was emotional.”
Hlawaty: “I think the story’s great for Kvitova. Sometimes there are fairytales and sometimes there aren’t. You’d imagine that’s a great feat for her, it’s great credit to her. And for Osaka, to say she’s not a flash in the pan, not a one-hit wonder, is also a big thing, so just as special. They’ll both be a bit edgy. The good thing is they’ve both been there. There’s no guarantee they’ll be fine, but it’s been there, done that, they’ve experienced it.”
Durie: “I think there’ll be more on it for Petra. I think she’ll be so happy to be back in a Grand Slam final, especially a different one. There’s so much riding on this match, with the No. 1 ranking at stake. Whether she can contain those emotions and let herself get right to the end of the match without feeling it too much is going to be interesting. I think Naomi’s shown us her maturity, winning the US Open and then coming here and getting to the final; not many women have done that lately. I think that’s really good for the women’s game.”
Cahill: “I am going to lean towards Petra. More for the heart, not so much for the head.”
Mouratoglou: “Osaka. In three sets.”
Craybas: “I’m leaning toward Kvitova. I picked her before the tournament, and I still feel that way. In three sets.”
Hlawaty: “I’ll go Osaka in three, with Kvitova to win the first set.”
Durie: “I think I’m going to go with Naomi. But it’s going to be a tough match.”
Naomi Osaka advances to the 2019 Australian Open finals as she defeats Karolina Pliskova 6-2, 4-6, 6-4.
Has won her past 59 WTA matches when leading by a set. The last time she dropped a match after taking the first set was 2016 against Svetlana Kuznetsova in Tianjin.
First player since Jennifer Capriati (2001 French Open) to follow up a maiden major title by reaching the final at very next Slam.
Her 15 aces and 56 total winners in the semifinals were both her highest marks at this year’s Australian Open.
Has a tournament-best 27 serve-return winners.
Has not dropped a single set so far this tournament and has been on court for 7 hours, 5 minutes in six matches, almost two hours less than Osaka.
Has won her past seven championship matches.
Coming off a 6-0 second-set performance in this semifinals against Danielle Collins.
Has won 61 percent of baseline rally points, highest in the tournament.
You guys 😭😭😭❤️ https://t.co/jC00OOPLGe
Juchuuuuu I’m in the final of the @AustralianOpen 🤭 pic.twitter.com/sYpIxipwqJ