Cheat Sheet: Cyborg vs. Nunes
After a hectic, last-minute change in venue, the UFC will close out 2018 with a pair of title fights on Saturday, inside The Forum in Los Angeles.
Polarizing former champion Jon Jones will try to reclaim his belt against Alexander Gustafsson in the main event, while female champions Cris “Cyborg” Justino and Amanda Nunes will compete for Justino’s 145-pound featherweight title.
Here’s everything you need to know about UFC 232, courtesy of ESPN’s Cheat Sheet.
Odds: Justino -240; Nunes +220
When it comes to the relationship between the UFC and “Cyborg,” even when things are going well, they could always be better.
It’s been more than two years since the inevitable marriage between the biggest promotion in the world and the devastating female striker — and yet, they still seem to be finding their way. Consider, for example, Justino’s short response when she was recently asked whether the relationship is better than it once was.
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“I hope so,” Justino told reporters in Huntington Beach, California. “We were enemies. Now I’m part of the family. I hold this UFC belt. I hope for sure the relationship is different.”
And in some ways, it is. The UFC and Justino are in a much better place than they were in 2015 and 2016, when the promotion was essentially only interested in Justino dropping to 135 pounds to face then-superstar Ronda Rousey.
In 2017, the UFC created a 145-pound weight class specifically for Justino, and she finished the year with a high-profile title defense against Holly Holm in a UFC main event. But Justino has fought only once since then. She’s criticized the UFC for not keeping her more active, or building the featherweight division.
After Saturday, Justino has one fight left on her UFC deal, and she has discussed transitioning into professional boxing if the UFC’s division doesn’t grow.
“I had a dream, it was to open the real division,” Justino said. “I don’t want to just be the division. I would like to have more growth at 145, more fights growing the division. And after that, if I stop fighting, the division continues. I think that’s best and puts more growth in my division.”
Of course, the UFC would argue it’s doing what’s best for the division by booking fights like this weekend’s. This is arguably one of the best fights in the history of female MMA, but Justino resisted at first, saying she didn’t want to face another female champion from Brazil.
With prior wins over Rousey, Valentina Shevchenko and Miesha Tate, Nunes is arguably the toughest challenge Justino could possibly face — regardless of the fact she’s fought primarily at 135 pounds.
If Justino wins, she’ll strengthen her claim for the status of greatest female fighter of all time. Whether she and the UFC can truly get on the same page regarding her long-term career after that remains to be seen.
Cyborg: 20-1, 1 NC, 5-0 in UFC; making third defense of UFC women’s featherweight title
Cyborg: Has not lost since MMA debut in May 2005
Cyborg: 17 of 20 career wins by knockout (four in UFC, one behind Nunes for most among female fighters)
Cyborg: 4.84 significant strike differential is highest in UFC history, according to FightMetric
Nunes: 16-4, 9-1 in UFC; current UFC women’s bantamweight champion
Nunes: 11 wins by knockout (five in UFC, most among female fighters)
Nunes: Seeking to become third fighter to hold two UFC titles simultaneously (Conor McGregor, Daniel Cormier)
Nunes: +131 significant strike differential in UFC title fights, according to FightMetric (277-146)
The question is, how will Nunes deal with Justino’s power? And, actually, vice versa.
It may be lazy to boil a Justino fight down to power — but it’s probably not wrong, either. Many of Justino’s fights have ended before we could even see what her opponent had to offer, because that opponent couldn’t stand up to her power.
One year ago, Holm brought a competitive skillset, an intelligent game plan and enough physicality to offer Justino trouble on paper — but at the end of the day, Justino simply did not respect her power. And Holm faded under Justino’s. Justino was marching straight forward at the end of that fight, to which Holm had no answer.
Nunes isn’t the matador/counter striker Holm can be, but she does hit harder. And if Holm’s high-volume counter striking isn’t Justino’s kryptonite, maybe Nunes’ heavy artillery can be. Nunes can’t afford to be flatfooted, but if she uses her speed, beats Justino to the target and exits safely, Justino won’t be able to walk her down as she has against previous opponents. Not with the natural power Nunes generates.
The clinch is an interesting factor in this bout, and Nunes will need to have a plan there. If this fight stays standing at middle- and long-range distances, Nunes can absolutely get the better of it. But if Cyborg is able to regularly use her size advantage in the clinch, wear on Nunes or — even worse — take her down, Nunes will be in trouble. Nunes needs to strike quickly on the outside and land enough knees and elbows in the clinch to reset that space between them.
Prediction: Justino via TKO, fourth round.