What you missed and need to know in college basketball
We’re nearly three months from the Final Four, and that’s why the holiday season is always a good time to recap the college basketball campaign thus far. Let’s take a look at what’s ahead — and what we missed — especially for the casual fans playing catch-up as the football season nears its end.
The arrival of Mount Zion
Zion Williamson, a projected NBA lottery pick with more than 2 million Instagram followers, stormed onto the college basketball scene as a force unlike any athlete we’ve ever seen in college basketball.
He’s a 6-foot-6, 282-pound nightmare with a skill set fueled by explosiveness, versatility, power and a high basketball IQ that has turned him into the most exciting player at this level — and college basketball’s most coveted NBA prospect too.
He’s not alone on the Duke Blue Devils. R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish likely will join him among the top five of this summer’s NBA draft. And let’s not forget Tre Jones, who has emerged as one of the best point guards in America.
But Williamson is the show. He would win the NBA’s dunk contest if he could enter the event this season. He’s averaging 19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. And he has exceeded the hype.
Villanova, Michigan going in different directions after last season’s title game
Last season, Michigan reached the national title game via excellent defense, Mo Wagner’s dominance, and clutch efforts in the postseason. Few expected the Wolverines to duplicate last season’s heights after Wagner turned pro.
But Ignas Brazdeikis (16.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 39 percent from beyond the arc), a Lithuanian-Canadian freshman leading Michigan’s undefeated start, has boosted John Beilein’s national title aspirations.
Both Jordan Poole (13.2 PPG, 48 percent from the 3-point line) and Charles Matthews (14.5 PPG, 1.1 steals per game) also are critical pieces.
The team’s opponents have made just 41.4 percent of their shots inside the arc, a top-10 defensive mark. The Wolverines will enter the Big Ten as the favorites to win the conference crown.
Villanova, the team that defeated Michigan in last season’s title game, has not enjoyed similar fortunes. After losing three first-round picks and Wooden Award winner Jalen Brunson, the Wildcats haven’t looked like the juggernaut of past seasons. The Wildcats have lost to both Furman and Penn (as well as Kansas and Michigan).
They’re averaging 13 turnovers per game, which would be the team’s worst mark since 2012-13 if it sticks. A lopsided win over UConn (without Collin Gillespie) on Saturday offered Jahvon Quinerly (10 points) an opportunity to prove he can make a more significant impact in the second half of the season. But the Big East is strong, and for the first time in years, the Wildcats do not appear to be the unanimous title favorite in league play.
The 3-point explosion continues
The NBA’s obsession with stretching the floor has affected players at all levels. Villanova’s run to its second national title in three years last season was made possible by a roster that had six players who had made at least 38 percent of their 3-pointers.
The rapid rise of the 3-pointer’s impact is a perpetual storyline in college basketball. During the 2008-09 season, shots from beyond the arc accounted for 40 percent or more of the shot attempts for 38 Division I teams, per KenPom.com. This season, 147 teams have hit that mark, a 43 percent increase from last year’s season-ending total.
We’re seeing more lineups to accommodate the uptick in 3-pointers. Some programs that have relied on traditional lineups with two big men are now utilizing lineups that feature more shooters. That’s why the numbers continue to grow.
The Pac-12 can’t avoid stumbles
Arizona State’s win over former No. 1 Kansas on Saturday was an impactful moment for the Sun Devils and a Pac-12 conference that hasn’t had many enjoyable moments in nonconference play.
Oregon has a loss to Texas Southern. After Saturday’s loss to Ohio State in Chicago, UCLA is 2-5 in its past seven games. Those two teams were picked to finish first and second, respectively, in the league’s preseason media poll.
The conference entered the weekend without a top-40 team in the NCAA’s NET rankings. And now, after a rough start in nonconference action, they could fail to secure more than two bids on Selection Sunday a year after earning three.
No consensus on the No. 1 team in the country
The crop of elite teams at the top of the game’s hierarchy has been impressive. But no team has put together a streak that has separated it from the other top squads in college basketball.
Tennessee has a win over Gonzaga and only one loss, in overtime on a neutral site, to Kansas. The Vols have a strong case for the top spot.
A Duke team with nine wins by 20 or more points nearly erased a 16-point deficit against Gonzaga in the Maui Invitational during the team’s only loss this season. The Blue Devils have been a force this season.
Virginia, Michigan and Nevada are all quality teams that deserve No. 1 consideration.
And Kansas had defeated Marquette, Tennessee and Villanova, before Saturday’s 80-76 road loss to Arizona State. Yet the Jayhawks — who have played without Udoka Azubuike in recent weeks because of his ankle injury — have been one of the best teams in the country.
No favorite for No. 1 … yet.
A fascinating SEC title hunt begins
After his team’s win over North Carolina on Saturday in the CBS Classic, John Calipari said that Kentucky had displayed its growth since a lopsided loss to Duke in the Champions Classic last month and a more recent loss to Seton Hall. But he also reminded folks in the room that the victory against UNC was just “one game.”
That’s true. But Kentucky’s win also elevated the intrigue in the league’s upcoming race. Tennessee, Auburn and Kentucky are slotted within the top 15 of KenPom.com’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings.
Keldon Johnson, Reid Travis, Jared Harper, Admiral Schofield, Grant Williams and Daniel Gafford could all vie for the league’s player of the year award. The SEC is a talented conference with eight teams in the top-50 of the NCAA’s new NET rankings.
Scheduling matters in this league. Kentucky will face Tennessee and Auburn this season four times combined. Auburn and Tennessee, however, will face one another once, in the final game of the regular season; that contest is at Auburn.
This should be a tight race at the top, one that is decided in the final weeks of the season, and the scheduling arrangement could have an impact on the final hierarchy.
More FBI-related trials and developments
In the coming months, the next chapters of the FBI’s investigation that has rocked college basketball will unfold. Although former USC assistant Tony Bland, one of four Division I assistants arrested in the bribery scandal probe, has reportedly agreed to a plea deal in the case, former Auburn assistant Chuck Person, former Arizona assistant Book Richardson and former Oklahoma State assistant Lamont Evans all are scheduled to go on trial in the coming months.
Christian Dawkins, Merl Code and James Gatto — three people tied to Adidas who were found guilty on multiple charges related to the FBI investigation earlier this year — will be sentenced in March. NCAA president Mark Emmert recently said he doesn’t expect the NCAA to move forward with any punitive actions against the schools involved before the conclusion of the trials, but there is always the chance new information revealed could alter that timeline.
For the second season in a row, college basketball will enter its final stretch awaiting a conclusion in the FBI’s investigation.
The chase for the Wooden Award
This season’s Wooden Award race is stacked. But it could be complicated by the teams that have multiple candidates. Duke’s four standout freshmen all could secure votes in the race. Williams and Schofield at Tennessee are in the mix. Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke at Gonzaga are too. Ty Jerome, De’Andre Hunter and Kyle Guy are all vital to Virginia’s pursuit of an ACC title.
Will that clear a path for a player like Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ (19.2 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.3 SPG) or Kansas’ Dedric Lawson (20.6 PPG, 11.4 RPG)? Maybe. We’ll find out soon. But the Wooden Award race seems wide open as conference play approaches.
Nevada’s pursuit of an undefeated regular season
An undefeated regular season is an attainable goal for a Wolf Pack squad that will enter Saturday’s game against Utah with a 12-0 record. Eric Musselman’s team is projected to win every remaining game on its schedule, according to KenPom.com. With Caleb Martin (18.8 PPG) and Jordan Caroline (18.8 PPG), this Nevada squad could match both Saint Joseph’s in 2003-04 and Kentucky in 2014-15 with an unblemished regular season. The limited competition in the league should help.
In the Mountain West, seven of its 11 teams are ranked outside the top 100 in ESPN’s BPI. But the pursuit of an undefeated regular season also comes with pitfalls. The league will not offer Nevada, which has positioned itself to lock up a top seed on Selection Sunday, any opportunities to secure signature wins. A handful of losses in league play, however, could ruin Nevada’s shot at a No. 1 slot in the NCAA tournament.
Can any team give Kansas trouble in the Big 12?
It’s never wise to bet against Kansas, which will seek its 15th consecutive Big 12 championship this season. The Jayhawks, who lost to Arizona State on Saturday, have struggled in spots since Azubuike suffered an ankle injury earlier this month.
But they’re still the favorites to win another crown in league play.
A few teams could give them trouble, though. Texas Tech is ranked first in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom.com. Chris Beard’s squad lost to Duke in Madison Square Garden last week, but the Red Raiders put together a competitive effort against a squad many believe deserves the No. 1 spot in the polls.
Both Lindell Wigginton and Solomon Young returned for Iowa State last week after missing the first two months of the season with foot and groin injuries, respectively. The Cyclones have made 59 percent of their shots inside the arc, a top-10 mark. Plus, TCU has five players averaging double figures in points. And Oklahoma is the surprise of the league, after winning 11 of 12 games and playing top-10 defense during the first two months of the season.
Still, Kansas is Kansas. This has been coach Bill Self’s league for a long time. No reason to doubt that will cease being true this season. But the handful of teams that will join Kansas in the top tier could disrupt its plans to extend the streak.