How the NFL playoff picture looks right now: Steelers out, Colts in
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick speaks to the media on what it’s like to win a 10th straight AFC East title. (0:21)
Wow. The NFL playoff picture took a wild turn Sunday, with teams from Pennsylvania creating most of the chaos.
The Pittsburgh Steelers diminished their own postseason chances, while shaking up the rest of the AFC, with their loss in New Orleans. The upshot: The Baltimore Ravens now have the inside track on the AFC North championship, and there will be two AFC South teams in the playoffs. The Steelers’ loss came a few hours after the Philadelphia Eagles extended the drama in both conferences and kept alive their own playoff hopes.
Here is how the rest of the NFL playoff picture shakes out at the moment, with live playoff odds from ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Note: X denotes a team that has clinched a playoff berth, while Z shows a team that has clinched its division and Y indicates a team that secured a first-round bye (an asterisk shows home-field advantage).
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
A victory Sunday night over the Seahawks would clinch the AFC West, along with a first-round bye and home-field advantage. Those are the big consequences of the Chargers’ loss Saturday night to the Ravens.
Next up: at Seattle Seahawks (8:20 p.m. ET)
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
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It wasn’t pretty, but the Patriots’ victory over the Bills propelled them back into the AFC’s No. 2 spot after the Texans’ loss to the Eagles. The Patriots clinched the AFC East and now control their path moving forward. They can lock up a first-round bye with a victory in Week 17. That would bring a semblance of normalcy; the Patriots haven’t played on wild-card weekend since 2009.
Next up: vs. New York Jets
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
Even with Sunday’s loss in Philadelphia, the Texans clinched a playoff berth by virtue of the Steelers’ loss. They can win the AFC South with a Week 17 victory. A loss would leave them as a wild-card entrant, with the winner of the Colts-Titans game clinching the division.
Next up: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
FPI playoff chances: 83.8 percent
Who will draft a quarterback? How does Oakland use its three Day 1 picks? Todd McShay goes 1-32 in next year’s draft.
Suddenly, the Ravens have control of the AFC North. Their victory Saturday night in Los Angeles, combined with the Steelers’ loss Sunday, means they will win the division with a victory in Week 17 or a loss by the Steelers. Who would have thought that a late-December game involving the Browns would carry so much weight?
Next up: vs. Cleveland Browns
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
Saturday night’s loss weakens the Chargers’ chances to win the AFC West and home-field advantage. A Chiefs win on Sunday would lock in the Chargers as the fifth seed. Even if the Chiefs lose on Sunday night, the Chargers would have to root for the Chiefs to lose again in Week 17 — at home against the Raiders — to have a chance.
Next up: at Denver Broncos
FPI playoff chances: 52.4 percent
Sunday’s blistering comeback against the Giants, combined with the Steelers’ loss, placed the Colts squarely in the playoff picture. Their path is simple: A win in Week 17 over the Titans would clinch a playoff spot, either as the AFC South champion (if the Texans lose) or as the sixth seed.
Next up: at Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans (9-6, 47.3 percent chance): The Titans’ path to the playoffs is identical to that of the Colts: Win against Indianapolis in Week 17 and they’re in, either as the AFC South champion (if the Texans lose) or as the sixth seed.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6-1, 16.5 percent chance): The Steelers have almost no chance to be a wild-card team. Their best path to the playoffs is with a Week 17 victory against Cincinnati, combined with a Ravens loss. They could theoretically be a wild-card team if they win, and the Colts and Titans tie.
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will go through New Orleans, the same formula that led the Saints to Super Bowl XLIV. Sunday’s comeback victory over the Steelers locked the Saints into the No. 1 seed with home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. They would win the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Rams if it came to that.
Next up: vs. Carolina Panthers
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
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The Rams’ win Sunday kept them on track for a first-round bye in the playoffs, but they won’t be able to clinch it until Week 17. Why? The Bears remain one game behind and would win the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Rams if it comes to that. So the Rams will need to win in Week 17, or have the Bears lose, to ensure a week off.
Next up: vs. San Francisco 49ers
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
Sunday’s win over the 49ers means the Bears will be no worse than the No. 3 seed in the playoffs. They could still move up to No. 2 and receive a first-round bye if they win in Week 17 and the Rams lose. Had the Saints lost Sunday, the Bears would have entered Week 17 with an outside chance to actually clinch home-field advantage. Alas.
Next up: at Minnesota Vikings
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
The Cowboys are your NFC East champions. They finished the game with a slight chance to move up to the No. 3 seed, but the Bears’ victory in San Francisco squashed it. The Cowboys will be the fourth seed and will host the No. 5 seed on wild-card weekend.
Next up: at New York Giants
FPI playoff chances: 98.2 percent
The Seahawks can clinch a playoff berth with a win in either of their remaining two games, or an Eagles loss in Week 17.
Next up: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (8:20 p.m. ET)
FPI playoff chances: 75.1 percent
The Vikings did their part Sunday by winning in Detroit, but they were unable to clinch a playoff spot because of the Eagles’ victory over the Texans. So they’ll move on to Week 17 needing either a victory, an Eagles loss or two losses by the Seahawks to ensure a playoff spot. The Vikings are also still alive for the fifth seed and could jump the Seahawks as early as Sunday night if they lose to the Chiefs.
Next up: vs. Chicago Bears
Philadelphia Eagles (8-7, 26.7 percent chance): The Eagles need some help. They’ll clinch a wild-card spot if they win in Week 17 against the Redskins and the Vikings lose, or they win and the Seahawks lose their remaining two games.
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