Week 16 NFL playoff picture: Eagles’ last-minute win keeps them alive
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick speaks to the media on what it’s like to win a 10th straight AFC East title. (0:21)
Wow. The NFL playoff picture took a wild turn Sunday afternoon.
In the end, the Philadelphia Eagles extended the drama in both conferences and multiple divisions with a 32-30 victory over the Houston Texans on the final play of the game. The victory kept alive the Eagles’ playoff hopes. It prevented the Texans from clinching the AFC South, which is now a three-team race. And it allowed the New England Patriots to move back into position for a first-round playoff bye.
Here is how the rest of the NFL playoff picture shakes out at the moment, with live playoff odds from ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Note: X denotes a team that has clinched a playoff berth, while Z shows a team that has clinched its division and Y indicates a team that secured a first-round bye.
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
A victory Sunday night over the Seahawks would clinch the AFC West, along with a first-round bye and home-field advantage. Those are the big consequences of the Chargers’ loss Saturday night to the Ravens and the Texans’ failure to hang on against the Eagles.
Next up: at Seattle Seahawks (8:20 p.m. ET)
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
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It wasn’t pretty, but the Patriots’ victory over the Bills propelled them back into the AFC’s No. 2 spot after the Texans’ loss to the Eagles. The Patriots clinched the AFC East and now control their path moving forward. They can lock up a first-round bye with a victory in Week 17. That would bring a semblance of normalcy; the Patriots haven’t played on wild-card weekend since 2009.
Next up: vs. New York Jets
FPI playoff chances: 98.7 percent
The Texans’ loss in Philadelphia means they can’t clinch the AFC South in Week 16. But they could still secure a playoff berth later Sunday if the Steelers lose in New Orleans. The AFC South is now a three-team race between the Texans, Colts and Titans. The Texans can win it with a victory in Week 17, but if they lose, the division title will go to the winner of the Colts-Titans game.
Next up: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
FPI playoff chances: 38.5 percent
Who will draft a quarterback? How does Oakland use its three Day 1 picks? Todd McShay goes 1-32 in next year’s draft.
The Ravens’ win over the Chargers raises the urgency for Pittsburgh. If the Steelers lose one of their final two games and the Ravens win at home in Week 17, Baltimore will win the AFC North. With a 9-6-1 record, the Steelers would have to hope there are no 10-6 teams to beat them out for the sixth seed. The prospects of the Steelers missing the playoffs are suddenly quite real.
Next up: at New Orleans Saints (at 4:25 p.m. ET)
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
Saturday night’s loss weakens the Chargers’ chances to win the AFC West and home-field advantage. A Chiefs win on Sunday would lock in the Chargers as the fifth seed. Even if the Chiefs lose on Sunday night, the Chargers would have to root for the Chiefs to lose again in Week 17 — at home against the Raiders — to have a chance.
Next up: at Denver Broncos
FPI playoff chances: 78.9 percent
The Ravens were put under severe pressure Saturday afternoon by the Titans, who defeated the Redskins for their ninth victory of the season. Had the Ravens lost to the Chargers on Saturday night, the sixth seed would have become a two-team battle between the Titans and Colts. As it is, the Ravens wouldn’t be able to clinch a playoff spot until Week 17, but as mentioned above, they can win the AFC North crown with a victory over the Browns and a Steelers loss in one of their final two games.
Next up: vs. Cleveland Browns
Still alive: Tennessee Titans (9-6), Indianapolis Colts (9-6)
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
After Monday night’s victory over the Panthers, the Saints are a full game ahead of the Rams in the race for home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. One more victory will clinch it because they own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Rams.
Next up: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25 p.m. ET)
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
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The Rams are now in position to lose out on the No. 1 seed and potentially a first-round bye altogether. The Rams are only one game ahead of the Bears, who defeated them in Week 14 and thus hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. On the other hand, they can still clinch a first-round bye with a win and a Bears loss this afternoon. Stay tuned.
Next up: at Arizona Cardinals (4:05 p.m. ET)
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
For the first time since 2010, the Bears are NFC North champions. They secured the inevitable by defeating the Packers last Sunday. The only question left now is whether they can sneak past the Rams for a first-round bye. The Bears hold the head-to-head tiebreaker if it comes to that.
Next up: at San Francisco 49ers (4:05 p.m. ET)
FPI playoff chances: 100 percent
The Cowboys are your NFC East champions. While it appears likely they will be the fourth seed, it’s not out of the question that they could move up to the third spot if they win in Week 17 and the Bears lose their final two games.
Next up: at New York Giants
FPI playoff chances: 97.9 percent
One victory over their final two games would clinch a playoff berth. It won’t be easy Sunday night against the Chiefs, but if all else fails, Seattle will host the woeful Cardinals in Week 17.
Next up: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (8:20 p.m. ET)
FPI playoff chances: 74.4 percent
The Vikings did their part Sunday by winning in Detroit, but they were unable to clinch a playoff spot because of the Eagles’ victory over the Texans. So they’ll move on to Week 17 needing either a victory or an Eagles loss to ensure a playoff spot. The Vikings are also still alive for the fifth seed and could jump the Seahawks as early as Sunday night if they lose to the Chiefs.
Next up: vs. Chicago Bears
Still alive: Philadelphia Eagles (8-7)